The Effect of Victimization Severity on Perceived Risk of Victimization: Analyses Using an International Sample

In this article, we explored the effect of prior victimization severity on perceived risk using a cross-national sample. We extracted data for all variables from the International Criminal Victimization Survey (ICVS) and the European Survey on Crime Safety (EU ICS). Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression for both pooled data and individual countries, we found that, in addition to numerous control and prior victimization variables, our key independent variable—perceived severity of victimization—generally influences levels of perceived risk. Discussion of the results and limitations of the study are also included.     

“吸毒驾驶”入刑及其关键问题探讨--以醉酒驾驶作风险比较和刑事侦查作操作考量为视角

由“吸毒驾驶”引发的恶性交通事故频发，呈日益增长且难以遏制的态势。针对“吸毒驾驶”日趋严重问题，公安机关在推动“毒驾入刑”和查处“吸毒驾驶”方面做出了不懈的努力，国务院在关于《禁毒法实施和禁毒工作情况的报告》中也曾建议《刑法》增设“毒驾罪”。2011年我国出台《刑法修正案（八）》，把醉酒驾驶规定为犯罪，与“醉驾”相比，“吸毒驾驶”对道路交通安全和社会公共安全的危害更大。本文以同醉酒驾驶作风险比较和从刑事侦查作操作考量为视角，对“吸毒驾驶”入刑的必要性、可行性及几个关键性问题进行论述。     

论海上保险中承保风险增加时被保险人的通知义务

本文比较分析了在海上保险中承保风险增加时被保险人所负有的通知义务,论述了该义务的产生和履行的条件以及违反该义务的后果,并提出了可供我国立法参考的建议。     

互联网金融安全规制研究

互联网金融是当今网络经济高度发展的必然产物,顺应各方需要,具有鲜活的生命力和不可抗拒的发展趋势。但是,互联网金融也存在金融风险,如果缺乏有效监管,风险积累到一定程度就会演变成金融危机。因此,在国内互联网金融发展的如火如荼阶段,必须高度重视互联网金融对传统金融市场的作用和影响,规避其对金融安全的冲击,重新界定互联网金融机构法律地位、构建多层次的互联网金融监管体系、切实加强金融消费者权益保护,确保国家金融安全。     

The social bases of nuclear energy policies in Europe: Ideology,proximity, belief updating and attitudes to risk

This article analyses the social bases underpinning the widely different trajectories of nuclear energy policies across Western European countries. Employing a set of surveys carried out in the last thirty years, it examines the conditional effects of ideology and geographical proximity to a nuclear power plant on attitudes toward nuclear energy, as well as the long‐ and short‐term dynamics of belief updating after the occurrence of major accidents. Results highlight how proximity can strengthen, weaken or have no effect on the ideological component of these attitudes. Moreover, the publics of most countries with experience in nuclear energy display the traits of Bayesian dynamics of belief updating, especially in the vicinity of a plant. The article also shows the fairly exceptional traits of French public opinion. In conclusion, the broad social constraints within which governments operate, across time and space, shed light on the different policy trajectories of European countries.     

抽象危险犯的概念诠释与风险防控

风险刑法所关注的风险(危险)已经不局限于风险社会理论中的典型的现代性风险,抽象危险犯原本不是风险刑法的产物。抽象危险犯除了有法益保护前置化和积极的一般预防理论的支撑外,避免证明上的困难也是重要的、独立的理由。抽象危险犯的抽象危险可以是强制性推定的,但大多数是可以反驳的。抽象危险犯不同于行为犯、具体危险犯和行政犯,有独立存在的必要。对抽象危险犯的立法应当限制。对推定抽象危险的犯罪,司法认定需要进行两个层次的判断。对抽象危险推定的反驳并不意味着举证责任的转移。     

Associations between ward climate and patient characteristics in a secure forensic mental health service

Ward climate is associated with patient satisfaction and, potentially, with improved outcomes but increased understanding of its relationship with individual patient characteristics is required. We investigated relationships between patient (N?=?63) gender, perceived risk, risk behaviour, therapeutic engagement (session attendance), psychopathology and ward climate in a forensic psychiatric hospital. Lower security levels were significantly associated with better patient cohesion (PC), experienced safety (ES) and therapeutic hold (TH). Female gender predicted PC and ES. Higher perceived risk was associated with lower PC after controlling for security level and gender. Diagnosis of personality disorder or psychosis was associated with higher ES. Lower levels of engagement predicted greater TH. The relationship between patient characteristics and ward climate in forensic settings is complex. Prospective studies are needed to further establish determinants of ward climate, particularly those aspects of patient risk that are associated with poorer PC.     

Dynamic risk and violence in individuals with an intellectual disability: tool development and initial validation

Without a violence risk assessment designed for people with an intellectual disability (ID), assessors are reliant upon tools developed for mainstream offenders or develop their own tools. This study describes the early stages of development of the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV), an informant-reported measure of dynamic risk for aggression in adults with an ID. The pool of items was generated from a multitude of sources. Predictive accuracy for aggression was tested prospectively among 64 adults with an ID and history of aggression. The 34-item CuRV was found to be a brief, uncomplicated risk assessment. Initial findings revealed good predictive validity over a five-month period: area under the curve (AUC) range from .72, 95% CI [.59, .85] to .77, 95% CI [.66, .89]. These preliminary findings suggest that the CuRV may assist staff to perform assessments of risk in busy clinical settings. Future research effort is needed to fully explore the psychometric properties of the CuRV.     

产品涉入、感知风险与金融商品再购意愿

以具有金融商品购买经验的顾客为研究对象,探讨后危机时期顾客产品涉入、感知风险对金融商品再购意愿的影响。通过引入金融风险属性和顾客风险偏好,剖析顾客产品涉入、感知风险对金融商品再购意愿的影响,并在此基础上构建顾客产品涉入、感知风险对金融商品再购意愿影响的整合研究架构。通过对494位具有购买金融商品经验的顾客调查数据研究发现:首先,产品涉入不仅能够降低感知风险,而且还能提升顾客对金融商品的再购意愿,而感知风险却抑制了顾客对金融商品的再购意愿;其次产品涉入不仅能够直接作用于再购意愿而且还能通过感知风险间接作用于再购意愿;最后产品涉入和感知风险对再购意愿的影响会受到顾客风险偏好和金融商品风险属性的干扰。