Offender’s Personal Circumstances and Punishment: Toward a More Refined Model for the Explanation of Sentencing Disparities

Prior research suggests that offender sex, age, and race are often influential determinants of sentencing outcomes. According to focal concerns theory, they affect sentencing because—due to limited time and information—judges rely on stereotypical behavioral expectations when assessing offender blameworthiness and dangerousness. As such, extralegal offender characteristics may serve as proxies for more specific risk indicators. Whether more complete information on additional risk factors helps account for the effects of extralegal characteristics, however, remains an untested assumption. Therefore, this study analyzes the Dutch data on standardized pre-sentencing reports to examine the influence of personal circumstances of the offender, such as employment, family, and drug use factors, on the likelihood and length of incarceration. The results suggest that personal circumstances exert inconsistent influence over sentencing outcomes and that they fail to significantly mitigate the direct effects of sex and age, but do mitigate the effects of national origin.     

东亚一体化中的非对称依赖结构风险及其化解

东亚一体化以市场驱动和制度驱动两种方式演进。然而,无论从市场驱动的区域生产网络还是从区域贸易协定的制度安排的现状和发展趋势上来看,东亚各经济体都存在非对称的相互依赖关系。非对称经济网络中的技术依赖和市场依赖,区域贸易协定的非对称发展趋势对多边自由化可能造成的抵触及其所带来的高昂的一体化政治成本等,会产生对一体化的反作用力量。因而,东亚必须以区域制度创新化解现有的矛盾和问题,以提高东亚经济在全球经济中的效益和竞争地位。     

重新犯罪风险评估的理论与方法

重新犯罪风险评估是罪犯出监前和社区矫正前的重要环节。重新犯罪风险评估中的难题是如何选取预测效度高的指标。提出重新犯罪风险评估模型,引入内隐联想测验方法,并指出犯罪人刑满释放前的敌意态度、特定的人格特征、犯罪风险知觉、社会适应性,可能是预测重新犯罪风险的良好指标。     

Predicting Technology Success: Identifying Key Predictors and Assessing Expert Evaluation for Advanced Technologies

This study investigates a set of precursor factors that appear related to future technology success, and whether or not expert evaluators can a priori provide useful information during the technology review process. Sixty-nine highly advanced post 9–11 technologies are tracked over time. Based upon the results of this study, we conclude that a reasonably good predictive model can be constructed from organizational and technology factors, such as firm size, stage of development, and strategic partnerships. The results also indicate that the incremental value of expert reviewers and technology evaluators to predict future technology success is relatively small. Reviewers that provided the greatest predicative power, however, had current scientific responsibilities. These results raise important issues regarding the capability of developing predictive models of technology success.      

Negotiation and Discourse Analysis

Discourse analysis focuses on the ways that language and symbols shape interpretations of negotiators' identities, instrumental activity, and relationships. These meanings arise, in part, from language patterns that bargainers employ while they are involved in a negotiation. This article provides a brief overview of research findings on language use in six areas of negotiation: strategy, relational development, identity management, emotional expression, issue development, and framing. It also employs a case example of a real estate negotiation to illustrate how discourse patterns discursively construct the nature of risk, certainty, and loss–gain through framing and issue development.     

基于AHP法的高校学生宿舍楼火灾危险性评估研究

应用层次分析法（AHP）从人、物、机、管理四个方面建立了高校学生宿舍楼火灾危险性评价指标体系。结合学生宿舍火灾危险性因素，讨论评价指标体系的建立及量化和权重的比较过程，为学校的消防安全管理提供相关定量分析方法。结果表明高校学生宿舍火灾危险性评估是一个减少火灾危险性的可行方法，对火灾的预防和消防管理具有指导意义。     

转型期农村留守儿童的风险境遇与应对策略

社会转型期，一个庞大的农村留守儿童群体正在形成。农村留守儿童的风险境遇主要是生活质量低，心理和自身安全也存在一些问题。从国家、社会、家庭的视角出发，提出解决风险的应对策略，不仅有利于解决其本身的问题，而且有利于促进和谐社会的建设，减少社会运行的风险。     

论人身危险性量刑情节的裁量

人身危险性是被告人的再犯可能性,根据报应限制功利的原则和报应让步功利的原则,法官在量刑时可以对人身危险性较小的被告人从轻处罚,但不能对人身危险性较大的被告人在其犯罪严重程度所对应刑罚的基础上加重处罚。     

论独立性对司法会计鉴定风险的控制

在我国经济自由程度不断深入的趋势下，司法会计尤其是司法会计鉴定在解决经济纠纷与案件中的作用就显得越来越突出了。这就要求我们的司法会计鉴定更加规范化、程序化，为社会主义法治建设提供必要的保障。本文重点讨论独立性在司法会计鉴定风险控制中的应用。