社会参与反恐的政策路径选择

传统反恐怖工作多依赖于军队、警察与安全情报机构,因此在职责上侧重于打击和远程防范,并以政府机构作为提供社会安全的主体,组织结构以科层等级制为架构,在反恐工作中充满神秘色彩。但是反恐应对工作与公共突发事件应急管理尤其是后果管理机制上有其相似之处,因此如果将反恐工作流程进行细分,则为社会公众及组织提供了可以参与的机会。目前社会参与反恐的政策上主要有被动宣教、主动支援以及使用非正式武装力量等三种可供选择,并将成为反恐工作的重要组成部分。     

Tracking Movement and Temperature Selection of Larvae of Two Forensically Important Blow Fly Species Within a “Maggot Mass”

The current study responds to the lack of understanding about the temperatures experienced by individual blow fly larvae within “maggot masses.” The temperature selection of both aggregating (in a mass) and nonaggregating larvae was compared and their pattern of movement assessed. Infrared imaging determined the temperatures within a mass and in the vicinity of the constituent individual larvae, whose movements were tracked by dyeing their tissues red. Individual Chrysomya rufifacies larvae selected temperatures above 27°C, significantly higher than the temperature selected by Calliphora vicina larvae (24.5°C). However, this same difference was not seen within a mass, with both species selecting temperatures around 28°C. Larval movement in a mass was nonrandom, indicating that larvae actively select their position in a mass. Furthermore, larvae have a strong tendency to select the hottest part of a mass; therefore, maximum mass temperatures might provide a reliable proxy for the actual temperatures experienced by larvae.     

Effects of pretrial juror bias,strength of evidence and deliberation process on juror decisions: new validity evidence of the Juror Bias Scale scores

This study examines the validity of the Juror Bias Scale scores in relation to the mock juror decisions reached in two real life homicide cases before and after the deliberation process. The judicial cases used varied in terms of the ambiguity of the evidence presented at both trials. The WLS methodology for statistical modelling of categorical data was used to analyse data. The findings indicated that the Juror Bias Scale scores successfully predict the verdicts and other related questions before and after deliberations in the case with ambiguous evidence. Furthermore, deliberations caused a generalisation effect on the pretrial juror bias in such a case, and enhanced the differences between defense-biased and prosecution-biased jurors in the verdicts delivered after deliberations. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the use of pretrial juror bias questionnaires in jury selection.     

Culling the cousins: Kingship,kinship, and competition in mid-millennial England

Kin selection, an aspect of evolutionary theory, argues that, all else equal, individuals should give preferential treatment to relatives, based on the degree of relatedness [Hamilton, W. D. (1964). The genetical evolution of social behaviour I, II. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 7, 1–52.]. However, one may observe instances where competition for scarce or unique resources is stronger between family members than between unrelated individuals. Such a situation existed between 1377 and 1603 with intense competition for the throne of England among descendents of Edward III. During this period, monarchs were executed by relatives to gain or maintain the throne for him or herself or descendents. Despite the widespread destruction of kindred, we show that executioners never sacrificed lineal relatives nor executed collateral relatives in excess of their own legitimate nuclear relatedness, and the number of executed relatives was positively correlated to the age and legitimate reproductive success of the executioner. Moreover, when resources are scarce, have an intrinsically high value, and are inherited, it may be in your Darwinian reproductive interest not to maximize but to minimize the number of legitimate children in order to reduce competition among family members.     

Who receives substance abuse treatment in the ‘real world’ of the prison? A register-based study of Finnish inmates

Assessing and targeting substance abuse-related treatment needs according to evidence-based practice has become the norm in most prison administrations. Not everyone with a need will, however, receive support in practical settings. Drawing on Finnish prison registers, we show that of all prisoners released in 2011, 60% were assessed as having a need for substance abuse-related support. Of these, 22% received an intervention in prison. Two multivariate models were used to examine the factors related to selection into interventions. The main factors associated with receiving an intervention with evidence-based programmes were a longer sentence, Finnish nationality, younger age and treatment motivation. The predictors for any substance abuse interventions (including non-evidence-based) were the same, with the exception that motivation was no longer a significant predictor, and female gender remained significant. The selective use of motivation as an entrance criterion for interventions can be a means of systemic adaptation to a combination of a high prevalence of substance abuse problems and a lower prevalence of treatment motivation in the prison population. We discuss how our results might reflect a Scandinavian way of doing evidence-based, prison-based drug treatment—one that stresses rehabilitation as a goal in itself in addition to reducing recidivism. Most prisoners, however, do not receive any intervention at all.     

Compulsory voting and the dynamics of partisan identification

Compulsory rules are known to have far‐reaching effects beyond boosting electoral participation rates. This article examines the relationship between compulsory voting and partisan attachments. A theory of attachment formation and strength is engaged that argues that compulsory voting boosts the likelihood that one will identify with a party and, in turn, the strength of party attachments among identifiers. The statistical model accounts for both the hierarchical structure of the data (individuals in elections) and the dual nature of the dependent variable (individuals report a strength of attachment only for the party with which they identify). Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, it is demonstrated that compulsory voting does indeed increase both the incidence and the strength of partisanship.     

着力科技创新,发展现代农业

该文以芜湖市为例,阐述了芜湖市农业产业和农业科技发展现状,分析了存在的问题和困难,提出依靠科技创新支撑现代农业发展的路径和措施。     

法律实施与利益选择——以行政诉讼和解制度为例

行政诉讼和解制度是政府与相对人在司法实践中基于自身利益进行的行为选择,共同改变了《行政诉讼法》规定的纸面规则。其中上级政府的量化指标考核与和解制度的成本低、收益小是政府与相对人选择和解制度的核心原因。这一现象说明行为主体在各自的生存环境下做出了与法律规则不一致的利益选择,这些实际选择一定程度上虚置和瓦解了纸面的法律规则。因此,在法律制度建构时应充分考虑行为主体的生存环境与利益选择。     

Is the Magic Still There? The Use of the Heckman Two-Step Correction for Selection Bias in Criminology

Issues of selection bias pervade criminological research. Despite their ubiquity, considerable confusion surrounds various approaches for addressing sample selection. The most common approach for dealing with selection bias in criminology remains Heckman’s [(1976) Ann Econ Social Measure 5:475–492] two-step correction. This technique has often been misapplied in criminological research. This paper highlights some common problems with its application, including its use with dichotomous dependent variables, difficulties with calculating the hazard rate, misestimated standard error estimates, and collinearity between the correction term and other regressors in the substantive model of interest. We also discuss the fundamental importance of exclusion restrictions, or theoretically determined variables that affect selection but not the substantive problem of interest. Standard statistical software can readily address some of these common errors, but the real problem with selection bias is substantive, not technical. Any correction for selection bias requires that the researcher understand the source and magnitude of the bias. To illustrate this, we apply a diagnostic technique by Stolzenberg and Relles [(1997) Am Sociol Rev 62:494–507] to help develop intuition about selection bias in the context of criminal sentencing research. Our investigation suggests that while Heckman’s two-step correction can be an appropriate technique for addressing this bias, it is not a magic solution to the problem. Thoughtful consideration is therefore needed before employing this common but overused technique.

论我国农民参政权——基于2009年《选举法修正案草案》的现实思考

政治参与是衡量政治现代化的重要指标,是民主政治的重要内容。农民是中国最大的群体,却是政治参与的边缘群体。《选举法修正案草案》有望使农民获得真正意义上的平等选举权,更有机会参与国家政治生活;但应该在对其肯定的同时,更多地从我国农民参政所处的现状思考,通过对农民参政影响因素及现状分析,探寻一条适合国情的农民参政权的实现路径。