Dimensions of Chinese foreign conflict and cooperation: A research note

Key mediation attributes, such as mediating actors, the strategy they choose, and previous mediation experiences, are widely thought to influence the nature of a conflict management outcome. But how and when these features shape outcomes is not a straightforward matter, and a standard analysis of these factors does not lead to their widely anticipated results. Why? We develop a new analytical framework that argues that a dispute's intensity alters the conflict management processes. Furthermore, in order to observe this variation, we also need to expand the traditional, dichotomous notion of conflict management outcomes (success or failure) to include a fuller range of observed results. Using the most recent International Conflict Management data set and our new analytical framework, we analyze the effect on conflict management outcome of mediator (a) identity, (b) strategy and (c) history. We find that directive strategies and international mediators are effective in resolving high intensity conflicts, procedural strategies and regional mediators are effective in resolving low intensity conflicts, and that mediation history always affects resolution. Our results have implications for both the study and practice of international dispute mediation.     

Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries,Shared Rivers,and Conflict

International conflict has been analyzed extensively through the framework of opportunity and willingness. Opportunity has mainly been operationalized as physical proximity. Willingness has been measured in a number of ways, and remains a somewhat more elusive concept. Several scholars have called for boundary length to represent opportunity. Heeding such calls, Harvey Starr has used GIS methods to generate boundary length for 1993 and has found it to be associated with increased propensity to conflict. A number of his measures of willingness were not. Using a new and much more extensive dataset on boundary length for the entire Correlates of War period, this article finds very different results. We study the relationship with shared rivers and water scarcity as measures of neomalthusian factors in willingness over a 110-year period. The results indicate that the neomalthusian factors are significant although not dramatic in their effects. Boundary length, while associated with conflict in a bivariate analysis, fades into insignificance when the neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced.     

Societal openness during the urban crisis. Partner selection in the 19th-century Belgian textile cities Ghent and Verviers

This paper examines the partner selection of the lower classes during an urban crisis period in early industrial Belgian cities. It was found that in this period characterized by an economic transition, overpopulation, migration and a low standard of living, social heterogamy was high, whereas social homogamy increased, or was ‘restored’, in the subsequent period. The urban crisis effect on partner selection contradicts the claims of modernization theory that there was a gradual increase in societal openness and that societal openness was typically modern, but it fits the idea of the informalization of marriage, a process marked by an increase in unmarried cohabitation and illegitimacy.     

Legislative Dissent without Reprisal? An Alternative View of Speaker Selection

Very little research has been devoted to examining the nature of Speaker selection in legislatures. This article attempts to provide a new perspective in which future research could examine the election of Speakers. A collective action perspective is put forward, which sees three groups of actors execute separate strategies to reach their own ends: the backbench, the executive and the opposition. These factors are tested on the Speaker selection exercises in the Ontario legislature. In the case study, it was found that the executive rarely gets their choice of Speaker, and three factors identified in the legislative dissent literature are utilised to examine these private acts of dissent: party popularity, cabinet size and the percentage of new legislators entering the party at each legislative term. It was found that the Speaker selection process involves three groups, each with their own preference order in decision-making.     

贵州农民可持续增收的总体思路与路径

农民实现可持续增收是解决“三农”问题的关键,选择实现农民可持续增收的有效途径更为紧迫。文章分析探讨了促进贵州农民可持续增收的总体思路与实现路径。     

保险诈骗罪第4款解释路径的法律分析

片面共犯由于违背共同故意要件因而不属于共同犯罪,其不能对保险诈骗罪第4款的法律性质作出合理的解释。保险诈骗罪第4款既不属于法律拟制和注意规定,也不属于想象竞合和法规竞合,其是法律文本主义的当然解释,亦是大竞合理论下,适用从一重处断原则的当然结果。     

The Canadian Government Response to Africa's Refugee Problem

La Côte d’Ivoire a longtemps fait figure de pays marginal et d’importance secondaire sur la scène islamique ouest-africaine, du fait notamment du statut minoritaire de l’Islam — une réalité qui se situe désormais moins au plan démographique qu’au plan politique — et de la discrétion des ordres soufis. De manière contrastée, depuis les années 1990, la société musulmane ivoirienne et sa culture religieuse “réformiste,” portée par une élite “moderne” centrée sur Abidjan, gagnent progressivement en influence dans la sous-région et au-delà. Cet article explore les processus socioéconomiques, politiques et culturels à l’oeuvre dans cette transformation, ainsi que l’interface entre le local et le global dans l’Islam ivoirien. Les migrations internationales vers la Côte d’Ivoire sont l’objet d’une attention particulière, dans la mesure où les nombreux immigrants ouest-africains, pour la plupart musulmans, ont pu jouer à l’étranger un rôle de traducteurs culturels dans la transmission des idées et du modus operandi propres aux réformistes ivoiriens. L’émigration de musulmans ivoiriens en Occident et en particulier aux Etats-Unis est aussi prise en compte. L’article se demande en outre pourquoi l’élite réformiste ivoirienne s’est efforcée de nouer des contacts avec des organismes islamiques internationaux basés hors du monde arabe et de l’Iran et comment les échanges avec les musulmans d’Occident ont marqué son développement de manière décisive et originale. Ces mouvements d’hommes et d’idées ont contribué au dynamisme local de l’Islam ivoirien et à son rayonnement transnational en Afrique de l’Ouest francophone et dans les milieux de la diaspora africaine musulmane aux Etats-Unis. La conclusion situe cette mondialisation de l’Islam ivoirien dans une perspective historique.     

The Personalization(s) of Politics: Israel, 1949–2003

The relationship between the United States and Iran has had an important influence on world affairs during the past two decades. Accordingly, the U.S. news media have an instrumental role in portraying U.S.‐Iran relations to the public. The Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis of 1979–1981, the TWA hijacking of 1985, the Irangate controversy of 1986–1987, and the Persian Gulf War of 1990–1991 are examples of important media events that have impacted public opinion regarding U.S. policy toward Iran. This research analyzes government and print media portrayals of the Reagan administration's U.S.‐Iran policy during Irangate. Results supported the prediction that the print media would fulfill their “watchdog” function by providing more critical portrayals of the United States' policy toward Iran than the Tower Commission Report, an investigative document published by President Reagan's Special Review Board. Among the three leading newspapers analyzed, there was significant diversity in the reporting of U.S.‐Iran relations. Results indicate the Reagan administration's attempt to “spin” its version of Irangate did not successfully pressure the media to neglect their watchdog role. Although the Tower Commission Report was less critical of U.S. policy toward Iran than the print media, all four print media sources portrayed the Reagan administration's policy as a flawed approach that degenerated into trading arms for hostages. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.     

探究民营银行发展之路

民营银行之争由来已久。中国的银行业不缺数量,缺的是结构,缺草根金融。该文回顾了民营银行艰难的探索历程,指出应科学界定民营银行经营范围和服务对象,消除制度障碍和现实阻碍,秉承先试点,后推广,循序渐进的发展思路,不断完善顶层设计,提升自身实力,让民营银行逐渐成长为金融体系中一支审要的力量。     

The Rise of the Novice Cabinet Minister? The Career Trajectories of Cabinet Ministers in British Government from Attlee to Cameron

Some commentators have observed that today's Cabinet ministers are younger and less experienced than their predecessors. To test this claim, we analyse the data for Labour and Conservative appointments to Cabinet since 1945. Although we find some evidence of a decline in average age and prior experience, it is less pronounced than for the party leaders. We then examine the data for junior ministerial appointments, which reveals that there is no trend towards youth and inexperience present lower down the hierarchy. Taking these findings together, we propose that public profile is correlated with ‘noviceness’; that is, the more prominent the role, the younger and less experienced its incumbent is likely to be. If this is correct, then the claim that we are witnessing the rise of the novice Cabinet minister is more a consequence of the personalisation of politics than evidence of an emerging ‘cult of youth’.