Intimate Partner Violence Victims’ Accuracy in Assessing their Risk of Re-abuse

Using four categories of accuracy (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative), this study explored (1) how accurately intimate partner violence (IPV) victims are able to assess their risk of re-abuse; and (2) potential predictors of accuracy. Women seeking help for IPV (N = 246) rated the likelihood that they would experience physical re-abuse in the coming year and then reported 18 months later whether those risks had been realized. Victim assessments were more likely to be right than wrong, and were subject to neither a pessimistic nor optimistic bias. In the multivariate analysis, significant/marginally significant predictors of the accuracy categories were the history of violence from this and former partners, level of substance use, PTSD symptoms, and the recency of the violence. Among the more robust findings were the connection between level of stalking and true positives, and between substance use and false negatives. This study suggests that victim assessments have significant potential to inform practice, and deserve further exploration.

The influence of prisons on inmate misconduct: A multilevel investigation

This article presents the results of multilevel analyses of prisoners' misconduct for the population of over 120,000 federal prisoners incarcerated in June 2001. Prior research has focused on individual-level explanations of inmate misconduct, but this study explicitly examines whether prisons vary in their influence on such misconduct. The study demonstrates that model specification makes a difference in our understanding of which variables are related to misconduct, that the type of misconduct is important for understanding the effects of covariates of misconduct, and that results of multilevel models can easily be used to compare the performance of prisons.     

Searching for Equilibrium: The Tenuous Nature of the Outcome Test

Based on Engel's critique of the outcome test and Persico and Todd's response, the underlying assumptions critical to the outcome test are summarized and discussed. It is argued that many of these assumptions are not met when applied to police search data. The key underlying assumption—the principle of equilibrium—is examined in detail, and several additional concerns are raised. Thereafter, the proper interpretations of outcome test analyses are reiterated, and discussion regarding the types of racial bias demonstrated by these analyses is further explored.     

美国选择性起诉抗辩的证明困境及原因

选择性起诉是政府基于恶意,歧视性地进行刑事起诉裁量的行为,因其目的之恶以及违反法之平等精神而受抗辩。美国司法有两种抗辩途径:通过禁令救济提起民事侵权之诉和在刑事诉讼中提起选择性起诉抗辩。然而,美国法院对这两种救济都确立了难以逾越的证明责任,并且将其分配给了申请人。其中民事抗辩的"现实的、迫在眉睫的侵害的威胁"证明,刑事抗辩的不正当起诉标准证明,几乎将所有的申请人阻挡在抗辩门外。美国法院的这种态度是因为其实际并不愿意介入此种审查,根源主要在于司法系统对于分权原则下司法权的克制和对检察官自由裁量权的尊重传统。     

Comparison of feature selection and data fusion of Fourier transform infrared and Raman spectroscopy for identifying watercolor ink

The identification of different kinds of watercolor inks is an important work in the field of forensic science. Four different kinds of watercolor ink Spectroscopy data fusion strategies (Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy) combined with a non-linear classification model (Extreme Learning Machine) were used to identify the brand of watercolor inks. The study chose Competitive Adaptive Reweighted Sampling (CARS), Random Frog (RF), Variable Combination Population Analysis-Genetic Algorithm (VCPA-GA), and Variable Combination Population Analysis-Iteratively Retains Informative Variables (VCPA-IRIV) to extract characteristic variables for mid-level data fusion. The Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm is used to optimize the extreme learning machine classification model. The results showed that the classification capacity of the mid-level fusion spectra model was more satisfactory than that of single Infrared spectroscopy or Raman spectroscopy. The CS-ELM models based on infrared spectroscopy used to recognize the watercolor ink according to brands (ZHENCAI, DELI, CHENGUANG, and STAEDTLER) obtained an accuracy of 66.67% in the test set using all spectral datasets. The accuracy of CS-ELM models based on Raman spectroscopy was 67.39%. The characteristic wavelength selection algorithms effectively improved the accuracy of the CS-ELM models. The classification accuracy of the mid-level spectroscopy fusion model combined with the VCPA-IRIV algorithm was 100%. The data fusion method increased effectively spectral information. The method could satisfactorily identify different brands of watercolor inks and support the preservation of artifacts, paintings, and forensic document examination.     

Development of etching paste for serial number restoration on aluminum engine block

Engine numbers, which involve information regarding the engine type, production number, and year and place of manufacture, are used for identification purposes. Comprising of unique alphanumeric characters, the engine numbers are fully or partially obliterated especially in auto theft and smuggling cases to conceal the origin, identity, and owner of vehicles. The limitations of the current restoration techniques such as the difficulty of using chemical liquid etching in vertical sites, the restrictions of magnetic and optical methods, and the applicability of several techniques like electron backscatter diffraction only in the laboratory environment prompt the development of new techniques. In view of these limitations and the importance of restoring engine numbers in criminal investigations, this unique study aimed to develop an etching paste that would restore the effaced characters on a real aluminum alloy engine block. The characters which were cold-stamped on the engine block were milled at varying depths and restoration attempts were conducted using etching pastes formed with different chemicals and materials. The analyses indicate that the etching paste formed with 200 mg of perlite, 400 mg of iron powder, and 450 μL of 20 M NaOH provided restoration to a good extent. The prevention of over-etching through the controlling of the chemical reaction and the cost-effectiveness appears to be the advantages of this technique. The success of recovery on the real engine block, the facilitation of restoration on curved surfaces, and the chance of on-site usage will likely make the etching paste a widely used tool in serial number restoration.     

The electoral impact of the financial crisis: Evidence using district-level data

Do economic downturns increase voter support for left or right parties? In our empirical analysis, we combine fine-grained registry-data on the labor market impact of the crisis and how it varied across 5000 electoral districts, with district-level data on vote-shares for all major parties in Swedish parliamentary elections before and after the crisis. Because the impact was so diverse across districts, we can estimate the electoral impact of unemployment more efficiently than usual. Moreover, because the crisis was an external and unexpected shock to the Swedish economy, we argue that the selection bias that is usually inherent in estimating the electoral impact of unemployment is mitigated. We find that the electoral impact of crisis-induced unemployment was large, benefiting right parties.     

A Conceptual Typology of Kin‐State Mediation

In this article, I argue that kin states can play major roles in international mediation processes involving their kin communities. Although kin states may be naturally biased toward their kin, kin states are sometimes actively involved in mediation processes and such involvement is even encouraged by third‐party mediators. In this study, I divide the various roles assumed by kin states in mediation into four main conceptual categories: promoter, quasi‐mediator, powerbroker, and enforcer. My analysis presumes that a kin state can use its close ties with its kin community to make third‐party mediation more successful. I support and illustrate this model using cases of kin‐state involvement in peace processes and examine both the benefits and complications that kin‐state mediation can entail. This study contributes to scholarship examining the effectiveness of biased mediators. I conclude that the role a kin state assumes in a mediation is often context‐dependent, but that third‐party mediators and the international community can use their leverage over kin states to improve the peace process.     

The Reliability of Pattern Classification in Bloodstain Pattern Analysis,Part 1: Bloodstain Patterns on Rigid Non‐absorbent Surfaces

This study was designed to produce the first baseline measure of reliability in bloodstain pattern classification. A panel of experienced bloodstain pattern analysts examined over 400 spatter patterns on three rigid non‐absorbent surfaces. The patterns varied in spatter type and extent. A case summary accompanied each pattern that either contained neutral information, information to suggest the correct pattern (i.e., was positively biasing), or information to suggest an incorrect pattern (i.e., was negatively biasing). Across the variables under examination, 13% of classifications were erroneous. Generally speaking, where the pattern was more difficult to recognize (e.g., limited staining extent or a patterned substrate), analysts became more conservative in their judgment, opting to be inconclusive. Incorrect classifications increased as a function of the negatively biasing contextual information. The implications of the findings for practice are discussed.     

Equity: Effects of Input and Outcome Orientation on Taking, Giving, and Dividing Money

Participants who were more inclined to consider ambiguous work elements as inputs (input-oriented or Type-I persons) or as outcomes (outcome-oriented or Type-O persons) were presented with situations in which they had delivered a higher or lower work performance than another person. They were asked to take money for themselves, give money to the other person, and divide a fixed sum of money between themselves and the other as reward for the performances. The specific combination of (input or outcome) orientation of the participant and the type of transfer (giving, taking, or dividing) determined the reward the participant allocated to him- or herself and/or to the other person. Type-I persons showed an egocentric bias in their allocation behavior, whereas Type-O persons allocated according to a maximin strategy.