从查处假羊肉事件探索餐饮监管的长效机制

从假羊肉事件探索如何建立餐饮单位监管长效机制,提高监管质量,既是确保餐饮单位食品安全的重中之重,又是遏制制假造假行为的关键,从餐饮单位自身和监管部门两方面人手,双管齐下,建立长效监管机制。     

公共危机事件中政府新闻发布研究

近年来,我国公共危机事件频发,俨然已朝着常态化方向发展。而作为人民利益的代表者,政府必须在公共危机事件爆发时采取必要的危机公关措施。新闻发布是政府开展危机公关活动的一个重要的手段。我国政府就公共危机事件而进行的新闻发布机制虽然已日渐成熟,但在诸多的新闻发布活动中还存着以沉默为主、报喜不报忧、报道时效性不足等诸多问题,惯性的政治思想、信息披露的权责不清、新闻发布机制的不完善是造成这些问题的主要原因。鉴此,我国政府必须转变政治思维、完善新闻发布机制、理清信息披露职责,从而为危机公关顺利开展奠定基础。     

Choose Your Weapon: The Impact of Strategic Considerations and Resource Constraints on Terrorist Group Weapon Selection

ABSTRACT

Historians of terrorism note that modern terrorists rely almost exclusively on two weapon types: the gun and the bomb. However, the comparative use of these weapons differs from one terrorist group to the next. We exploit this variation to examine how the tactical decisions of terrorists respond to both strategic aspirations and resource constraints. We argue that a group’s goals (a strategic consideration) and size (a resource constraint) provide a parsimonious explanation for weapon selection. Because firearms inherently expose the shooter to higher risk, are more precise, and must be used if a group aspires to maintain social order, they are unlikely to be used by groups with limited recruits in a campaign of violence. We test this theory using data on over 350 terrorist organizations. Our analysis shows that strategic considerations and resource constraints both impact tactical choices, although groups with the most expansive goals, those which transcend national borders, as well as militias, are two interesting exceptions to our theory. Our research has implications for the use of disaggregated tactical data and in furthering our understanding of the rationality of terrorism.     

Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors.

The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.     

Events Data as Bismarck's Sausages? Intercoder Reliability,Coders' Selection,and Data Quality

Precise measurement is difficult but essential in the generation of high-quality data, and it is therefore remarkable that often so little attention is paid to intercoder reliability. It is commonly recognized that poor validity leads to systematic errors and biased inference. In contrast, low reliability is generally assumed to be a lesser concern, leading only to random errors and inefficiency. We evaluate the intercoder reliability of our recently collected data on governance events in UN peacekeeping and show how poor coding and low intercoder reliability can produce systematic errors and even biased inference. We also show how intercoder reliability checks are useful to improve data quality. Continuous testing for intercoder reliability ex post enables researchers to create better data and ultimately improves the quality of their analyses.     

The effects of the second Intifada,terrorist acts,and economic changes on adolescent crime rates in Israel: A research note

Designed as a field quasi-experiment, this study analyzes the differences in Jewish adolescent crime rates before and after the inception of the second Intifada (September, 2000). Data covers the years between 1996 and 2003. The study focused on the relationship between the number of terrorist acts, the number of deaths in these acts, economic changes, and crime rates (murder, manslaughter, assault, mugging and robbery and property-related). The findings of the study were analyzed in terms of current theories on the impact of social and security-related stress on adolescents. The results show that the second Intifada has had significant effects on male adolescent crime rates. In particular, the number of terrorist acts was significantly associated with the following offences: assault, robbery, and manslaughter. No significant differences were found for adolescent female crime rates. Economic changes were significantly negatively related both to male adolescent crime for all the offences studied, as well as to property-related female offences.     

德国大型活动安保策略及其给我们的启示

德国的大型活动安保采取了许多有效的策略,给我们的启示是:整合各种资源,实现大型活动处置的专业化;警方有所为有所不为,充分发挥私力安保力量的作用;建立警情分析中心;建立全面完善、合理配置的首长指挥系统;建立大型活动预警评估机制,分类分级,区别对待;强调牵头单位的属地性和一致性;掌握媒体工作的主动权。     

恐怖主义犯罪相关问题探析

恐怖主义的界定存在诸多争议,目前尚无定论。恐怖主义犯罪的形态可以从发动攻击者、背景根源、活动范围、动机、攻击目标等方面区分为不同的形态,每种形态均呈现其自身的特点。恐怖主义犯罪与一般暴力犯罪在犯罪形态、犯罪目的、犯罪地域、犯罪资金来源及犯罪手段上均有区别,是一种特殊的暴力犯罪。其本质特点在于恐怖性、暴力性、政治性、宣扬性和刑事违法性等几方面。     

论认定恐怖主义组织之机构模式

从法律依据和认定主体的角度来分类,认定恐怖主义组织的机构模式主要有两种：一是司法认定模式;二是行政认定模式。前者是最基本的认定模式,后者是对前者的有益补充。中国显然采取行政认定模式作为有益的补充。参照外国的先进经验,中国关于恐怖主义组织的行政认定模式需在两个方面加以改进：一是构建严格的认定程序,要体现出认定程序的高法律层次性、详细性、全面性和正当性;二是增加司法审查程序,以保证认定行为的合法性与准确性。