突发公共事件心理危机干预模式述评

突发公共事件包括自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件及社会安全事件,重大突发事件具有发生突然、难以预料、危害大且影响广泛等特点,因此常引发个体出现一系列与应激有关的障碍,即心理危机,此时及时的心理危机干预十分必要。对国内外突发公共事件心理危机干预的诸多模式进行梳理与比较研究之后发现：预防性“医学一心理一社会”多维系统化的心理干预模式应是适合我国民众心理特征的综合干预模式。     

恐怖犯罪案件法律适用的几个问题

《刑法修正案（三）》对我国现行刑法典有关恐怖犯罪的规定进行了修改和补充,主要体现在：取消了三个罪名、扩充了两个罪名、增加了三个新罪名。该修正案的颁布也引起了以危险方法危害公共安全罪内涵及外延的变化,新旧罪名、罪刑关系的变化,同时,修正案本身也存在某些缺陷和疏漏,这些问题需要在法律适用中引起注意。     

Family Psychopathology and Perceived Stress of Both Domestic Violence and Negative Life Events as Predictors of Women’s Mental Health Symptoms

Using a diathesis–stress model, this study examined the development of depressive and anxiety symptoms in women who experience stressors of domestic violence (DV) and/or negative life events (NLEs) over the course of three years. Family history of affective mental health problems represented the diathesis. Using a person-oriented approach, 182 women were grouped into 6 risk profiles based on varying levels of DV and NLEs. Results showed that family history of psychopathology increased vulnerability to mental health disorders; however, the best predictor of symptoms was the presence of either stressor at any time. A quadratic relationship between the risk pattern and mental health symptoms indicated that fluctuations in depression were related to the pattern of stress experienced. Results support the diathesis–stress model for occurrence of depressive but not anxiety symptoms in women with DV and/or NLEs.     

论群体性事件预警机制

构建群体性事件预警机制,对于及时收集关于群体性事件深层次、内幕性和行动性的情报信息,积极预防和化解矛盾纠纷,把群体性事件苗头解决在基层、解决在萌芽状态具有重要的意义。为此,要以整合群体性事件信息资源为目标,建立渠道通畅、网络严密的群体性事件监测机制;组建专门的情报信息管理、协调和处理机构,构建群体性事件的预测和预报机制;按照“属地管理、分级负责和谁主管、谁负责”的原则,建立群体性事件调处的快速反应机制。     

Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors.

The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.     

Events Data as Bismarck's Sausages? Intercoder Reliability,Coders' Selection,and Data Quality

Precise measurement is difficult but essential in the generation of high-quality data, and it is therefore remarkable that often so little attention is paid to intercoder reliability. It is commonly recognized that poor validity leads to systematic errors and biased inference. In contrast, low reliability is generally assumed to be a lesser concern, leading only to random errors and inefficiency. We evaluate the intercoder reliability of our recently collected data on governance events in UN peacekeeping and show how poor coding and low intercoder reliability can produce systematic errors and even biased inference. We also show how intercoder reliability checks are useful to improve data quality. Continuous testing for intercoder reliability ex post enables researchers to create better data and ultimately improves the quality of their analyses.     

论群体性事件不同阶段的情报工作

为有效预防与妥善处置群体性事件,公安机关必须根据事件发展的不同阶段,做好情报工作。事件前期,收集社会不稳定因素方面情报,建立情报信息网络和情报预警系统;事件中期,全面收集情报信息,加强情报信息的分析研判,及时、准确上报与发布情报信息,收集各种违法犯罪活动的证据;事件后期,收集各方面反馈信息,发现群体性事件的本质与规律,对情报工作进行评估。     

群体性事件处置机制建设

当前公安机关处置群体性事件工作存在的问题 ,一是缺乏预警机制 ,导致信息不灵 ,工作被动 ;二是保障工作不力 ;三是现场处置水平不高 ;四是对群体性事件处置研究评估不够。这主要是缺乏处置群体性事件的有效机制 ,因而必须强化五大机制建设 ,即建立灵敏的预警机制 ;建立统一的组织指挥机制 ;建立强有力的保障机制 ;建立高效的现场处置机制 ;建立科学的评估机制     

论摄影的造型手段和表现力

摄影作为反映现实的一种手段,已为人们广泛应用。但是,优秀的摄影作品应当具有鲜明的思想、深刻的内容和完美的造型,而这些往往容易被人们忽视。为了体现摄影的价值,帮助摄影者准确把握摄影的造型,了解摄影造型手段和表现力适用方面的特点及材料处理方法,明晰如何处理主题和题材以及照片画平面构图结构的方法是有重要意义的。     

我国反恐怖爆炸防控机制的建构

当前我国诱发恐怖爆炸的国际国内因素广泛存在,袭击目标向涉及国计民生的重点要害单位及重要交通枢纽转移,已经严重威胁我国的安全和稳定。我国应建立反恐怖爆炸的紧急处置机制,加强爆炸物的监管,建立健全反恐怖爆炸的情报信息研判机制,加强内部基础防范建设,构建全方位的反恐防控体系。