群体性事件心理分析

近年来,因各种人民内部矛盾引发的群体性事件不断增多,社会影响越来越大,成为影响社会稳定和治安秩序的突出问题。不少专家学者从群体性事件的成因及处置对策方面进行了许多有益探讨,本文拟从犯罪心理学的角度,对这一现象产生的心理原因、心理过程及心理预防等问题进行一些探讨。     

Factors Contributing to Gender Differences in Depressive Symptoms: A Test of Three Developmental Models

In a longitudinal study on 115 early adolescents, the impact of major events, relationship stressors, and coping style in interaction with biological changes on depressive outcome in late adolescence were explored. Three developmental models proposed by Nolen-Hoeksema and Girgus (1994, Psychol. Bull. 115: 424–433), which attempt to explain the emergence of gender differences in adolescent depressive symptoms, were tested. Multiple regression analyses conducted to test Model 1 identified two etiological factors associated with gender differences of depression, namely, stress in the adolescent–mother relationship and a more negative body image. Tests of Model 2 revealed etiological factors which correlated with depression in adolescent girls but not adolescent boys. The correlational patterns of avoidant coping and body image emerged as relevant factors for Model 2. Finally, tests of Model 3 searched for factors which were more likely to be observed in adolescent girls than boys and which would put girls at risk should they interact with a third etiological factor. Early maturational timing emerged as a factor for Model 3.     

略论公务员公共突发事件应对能力提升

我国目前处在公共突发事件的高发时期,在未来很长一段时间内,我国都将面临公共突发事件所带来的严峻考验。面对新时期公共突发事件的发展态势,许多公务员公共危机意识淡薄,应对能力不强。因此,必须大力提高公务员应对和处置突发事件的能力,最大限度地减少损失,保障经济持续发展,促进社会和谐稳定。     

群体性事件预警指标体系研究

在社会系统稳定因素及社会评价指标体系分析的基础上,构建群体性事件的预警指标体系,并通过建立指标权重模型,运用管理学定性、定量等研究方法,完善群体性事件预警机制。     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

民国时期恐怖活动研究

恐怖活动在中国延续了两千多年后,到民国时期已经比以往任何朝代都有过之而无不及。尽管当时的所有政权都制定反恐法规,采取反恐措施,希望将其消灭或纳入管控范围,但由于各政权自身条件的限制及实施恐怖活动的组织、个人所具有的强势特点,要达到目的并非易事。     

俯瞰我国省级政府突发公共事件总体应急预案

我国各省都编制了突发公共事件总体应急预案，这些总体应急预案的框架内容基本尚可，但还存在一些问题，文章对这些问题提出了解决的对策。     

Optimism as a Mediator Between the Experience of Child Abuse,Other Traumatic Events,and Distress

In this study, we examined the role of dispositional optimism in mediating distress among students who experienced traumatic events, including child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and sexual abuse. Participants included 199 undergraduate and graduate students (aged 18–63 years) from a private university in Oregon. In this study, dispositional optimism partially mediated distress among individuals who had experienced child physical abuse and child emotional abuse; participants with higher levels of optimism had lower levels of distress. In addition, dispositional optimism fully mediated distress among individuals who had experienced traumatic events such as rape, assault, and fire; participants with higher levels of optimism had lower levels of distress. Contrary to prediction, the experience of child sexual abuse was not associated with distress. Clinical implications of these results are addressed.     

论人大在预防群体性事件中的职能定位

群体性事件频发已成为影响我国社会和谐稳定的突出问题。本文认为,在影响群体性事件发生的诸因素中,人大的利益代表职能及监督职能未正常发挥是根本性因素。因此,有效预防与化解群体性事件,应完善人大的代表职能、沟通职能、监督职能,尽快建立人大代表职业构成比例制度及代表联系选民制度,逐步完善代表质询制度等三位一体的人大权力监督机制。     

试论反恐专门立法的必要性与可行性

当前，恐怖活动已经成为严重威胁国宦安全和社会稳定的现实危害，加强反恐专门立法已经成为国际联合反恐、国内依法反恐的现实需要。从国际层面看，专门立法已经成为世界潮流，有可供借鉴的成功经验；从国内层面看，我国有一定的实践基础和立法基础。在反恐专门立法中，要注重立足我国国情，并妥善处理与其他部门法的衔接。