Religious Rage: A Quantitative Analysis of the Intensity of Religious Conflicts

ABSTRACT

The conventional wisdom that religious conflicts are more intense than other types of conflicts is tested in this study using a cross-sectional time series analysis. The statistical test evaluates the intensity of 278 territorial conflict phases in the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway (PRIO) Armed Conflict Dataset. The results indicate support for the assumption that religious conflicts are more intense than other types of conflicts; however, the relationship disappears when the relevance of religion is taken into account. Furthermore, this study evaluates the relationship of conflict intensity with the type of religion involved in the conflict and determines that no religion exhibits a significantly higher or lower intensity than the others.     

The Internet: A Virtual Training Camp?

This study aims to investigate how Al Qaeda uses the Internet for military training and preparation. What kind of training material is available on jihadi webpages, who produces it, and for what purpose? The article argues that in spite of a vast amount of training-related literature online, there have been few organized efforts by Al Qaeda to train their followers by way of the Internet. The Internet is per today not a “virtual training camp” organized from above, but rather a resource bank maintained and accessed largely by self-radicalized sympathizers.     

Terrorist Incidents in India, 1998–2004: A Quantitative Analysis of Fatality Rates

Using data from the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database II, this paper first provides information on the nature of terrorist incidents in India in the period 1998-2004: the Indian states that were worst affected by terrorist incidents and fatalities; the terrorist groups responsible for such incidents and their modus operandi. Next, the paper focuses on the issue of fatalities from terrorist incidents. It inquires into the extent to which the number of fatalities following an incident was influenced by the type of attack (bombings, armed assault, etc.) and the extent to which it was influenced by the type of terrorist group. By examining the number of fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks in India, the paper disentangles the influence on this number of attack type and attack group. Lastly, the paper applies Atkinson's concept of equality-adjusted income to terrorism to arrive at the concept of equality-adjusted deaths from terrorist incidents: in order to avoid spectacular incidents resulting in the loss of a large number of lives—as in New York on September 11, 2001 and in Mumbai 26–29 November 2008—“society” might be prepared to tolerate “low-grade” terrorism which resulted in a larger number of deaths in total but avoided a large number of deaths from a single iconic incident.     

George Michael. The Enemy of My Enemy. The Alarming Convergence of Militant Islam and the Extreme Right

This article presents an empirical analysis of a unique dataset of 1240 former members of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA). We highlight the shifting sociological and operational profile of PIRA's cadre, and highlight these dynamics in conjunction with primary PIRA documents and secondary interview sources. The effect of these changes in terms of the scale and intensity of PIRA violence is also considered. Although this is primarily a study of a disbanded violent organization, it contains broad policy implications beyond the contemporary violence of dissident movements in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. We conclude with a consideration of how a shifting sociological profile impacts upon group effectiveness, resilience, homogeneity, and the turn toward peaceful means of contention.     

What Is a Terrorist Group? Conceptual Issues and Empirical Implications

Researchers increasingly conduct quantitative studies of terrorist groups, which is an important advance in the literature. However, there has been little discussion of what constitutes a “terrorist group,” regarding conceptualization or measurement. Many studies of terrorist groups do not define the term, and among those that do, definitions vary considerably. The lack of clarity leads to conceptual confusion as well as sample selection issues, which can affect inferences. To address these issues, this article offers an in-depth analysis of the term and its use. It explores definitions in the literature, and then discusses different samples used. Empirically, the article demonstrates how sample selection can affect variable values. It also shows that a non-representative sample, such as the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list, can lead to inaccurate generalizations. Ultimately, I present a straightforward “inclusive” definition, and argue for its practicality. Other suggestions are made for a more effective and cohesive research program.     

Middle Eastern terrorism in Europe: Trends and prospects

Abstract

Europe has been the preferred operational area for Middle Eastern terrorist groups—some 418 attacks from 1980–1989. Unlike European Marxist revolutionary or separatist terrorist groups, the Middle Eastern groups present Europe with a regional security problem. The most dangerous element in this Middle Eastern terrorist threat is the state‐sponsored activities of Iran, Libya, Syria, and Iraq. These countries provided the fuel for a decade of Middle Eastern terrorist bloodshed in Europe. Given the problems of solving the various political conflicts and feuds in the Middle East and the continuing attractiveness of Europe as a substitute battlefield for Middle Eastern terrorist elements, the threat of Middle Eastern terrorist activity in Europe should continue into the 1990s.     

论聚众犯罪的特征——以群体性事件为视角

在社会矛盾不断深化的当下,部分群体性事件演变、升级为一些聚众犯罪,这不仅是部分群体性事件的极端表现形式,也是当前社会矛盾的必然反应。这些由群体性事件演变而来的聚众犯罪与传统的聚众犯罪相比,呈现出"行为发生的偶发性与情绪性,行为方式的公然行与暴力性,行为主体的多元性与复杂性,行为演变的预谋性与组织性,危害后果的严重性与难控性"等一些自身的鲜明特点。对这些鲜明特征的理解和把握,不仅有利于对此类聚众犯罪的分析和判断,也有利于化解和处置群体性事件背后的深层次社会矛盾,从根源上寻求群体性事件的消解与控制之道。     

英国涉恐资产冻结法律制度介述及其对我国的借鉴

冻结涉恐资产可以有力地斩断恐怖组织及其人员实施恐怖活动的经济基础,因而冻结措施成为金融反恐的重要手段。英国《2010年涉恐资产冻结法》对涉恐资产冻结的相关措施作了专门的系统规定,该法令规定的冻结措施具有期限性、非终局性、冻结对象的广泛性等特征。我国的涉恐资产的冻结措施应当借鉴英国涉恐资产冻结的相关法律制度,注意不同法律制度间的相互配合,注重涉恐资产冻结中的权利保障,加强国际法和国内法的衔接,以便更好地实现打击恐怖活动犯罪的目的。     

Groupthink and Terrorist Radicalization

Why do groups adopt terrorism? Major theories of terrorist radicalization assume it to be a rational process whereby groups select terrorism as the policy most likely to advance their goals. Not all terrorism is rational, however, and these theories cannot explain cases when groups pursue terrorism despite it being self-defeating. We distinguish between rational and irrational terrorism, and explain the latter using social psychology's groupthink mechanism. Although terrorists are widely assumed to be vulnerable to groupthink, empirical work on the phenomenon has focused overwhelmingly on decision-making by national executives. We firmly establish the link between groupthink and terrorist radicalization by tracing groupthink's operation through the development of the Weather Underground, an American terrorist group that emerged in the late 1960s and conducted six years of bombings against the U.S. government. All of the antecedent conditions, symptoms, and decision-making defects predicted by groupthink are evident in the Weather Underground, providing valuable evidence of the dangers of irrational radicalization and offering lessons for its prevention.     

昆明“3·01”事件后城市反恐的着力点

昆明"3·01"事件有恐怖犯罪实施、国际恐怖势力、恐怖活动的组织活动等三个环节,这三个环节是恐怖势力在城市进行恐怖活动的三层"附着力"。北京"10·28"、昆明"3·01"和乌鲁木齐"4·30"恐怖事件后中国面临的恐怖威胁进入一个新阶段,城市恐怖威胁越来越突出,恐怖袭击在内地城市可能呈现泛化现象,城市反恐成为国家安全的重要议题。城市反恐斗争的着力点就是打击恐怖势力在城市的"附着力"。