当代青年“入伍热”现象的成因分析

从近几年的冬季征兵、夏季特招士官和军校高招来看,当代青年再现应征参军热潮。这其中无论是普通社会青年,还是莘莘学子,促成其崇尚参军报国的深层背景中,有个人长期的军旅夙愿和传统的爱国情怀,也有国庆阅兵等时事宣传,以及＂大学生好兵高明＂的示范效应,更有国家新出台的对大学生入伍优惠政策等外部因素,是全社会共同营造的良性氛围点燃了这种热切与激情。     

评估兴边富民行动的实施效果:以内蒙古边境旗市为例的时间序列分析

在兴边富民行动开展10周年之际,评估兴边富民行动的实施效果具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文利用内蒙古边境旗市统计数据定量分析了兴边富民行动的实施效果。回归结果表明,总体而言内蒙古兴边富民行动实施效果并不令人满意,尽管第二产业获得加速发展,公路建设成效显著,也促进了边境地区的商品贸易,但基本上没有实现加速当地经济发展、加快改善农牧民生活水平的目的,而且卫生事业发展相对落后。     

空间认知的几点反思

空间理论探究近年来成为学术界关注的热点，但从不同流派的空间认知中，可以发现他们对空间的认知或者基于空间理论展开的其他研究，都不同程度地存在着脱离对空间本体及基本属性认知的局限，因而从空间本体论、空间属性、空间方位、空间与时间关系角度全面深入地对其展开探究，是科学准确地把握空间基础理论的关键，也是进一步展开空间理论其他研究的前提。     

《崇陵传信录》的真实成书时间及相关问题

《崇陵传信录》是常被有关论著征引的一部著名私家笔记。长期以来,人们一直认其成书时间在满清退位以前,所据为恽毓鼎在本书的＂弁言＂后署时＂宣统三年辛亥四月＂。其实,这是恽毓鼎的故弄玄虚。真实情况是,该书于1912年8月6日开笔,随即又搁置下来,直至次年9月22日才脱稿。此中原委,今借助恽毓鼎《澄斋日记》的有关记录得以弄清楚。另外,梁启超、罗惇融、饶智元等人与该书在有关报刊的连载及一次性全文发表均有关系,但长期以来鲜有提及者。     

当代民族分离主义兴起的原因探析

冷战结束以后，多民族国家共同体内部所发生的一系列的民族矛盾、民族冲突直接导致了民族分离主义的产生。当代民族分离主义强烈要求将本民族从现有的多民族国家共同体中分裂出来，以实现“民族自决”、“一国一族”的本民族的国家政治体系，其分离行径给国家和民族安全带来极大危害。     

交通事故认定的法律救济

《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》将交通事故认定书定性为处理交通事故的证据，公安部的部门规章随即取消了交通事故责任认定的重新认定程序，人民法院也不再受理对交通事故认定不服提起的行政诉讼，使得关系当事人重大权利义务的交通事故责任认定丧失了有效的救济途径。交通事故认定一旦错误。便将给当事人带来极大的危害。因此，有必要正确把握交通事故认定的法律属性，将交通事故认定纳入行政复议、行政诉讼的受案范围，为其引入制约与监督机制，以切实维护交通事故当事人的合法权益，同时应当建立民事附带行政诉讼制度，为公正、高效地解决交通事故损害赔偿纠纷提供一条便捷的法律救济途径。     

Blind validation of postmortem interval estimates using developmental rates of blow flies

This study evaluated the use of different degree day (DD) models, developmental thresholds and developmental data sources for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) based on developmental rates of blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Blow fly evidence was collected from three mock crime scenes and sent for blind analysis of PMI. PMI estimates were calculated using averaging, single sine, double sine, single triangle, and double triangle models of DD calculation with minimum developmental thresholds of 0, 6 and 10 °C and Anderson's, Byrd and Allen's, Greenberg's, Nishida's and Kamal's developmental data sets. These estimates were compared with the actual PMI to determine which combination of DD model, developmental threshold and developmental data provided the most accurate estimate. For all three cases, at least one method gave a PMI estimation that was within 1 day of the actual date of death. There was no variability between PMI estimated using the five models of DD calculation. Overall, as lower developmental threshold increased, the PMI interval estimates increased. Depending on the developmental data set used, increasing the lower developmental threshold caused some overestimations of the date of oviposition, with estimates given that were prior to the actual death. Future PMI estimates should include error ranges, so that overestimation of PMI is avoided.     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

Detection of Gamma-Hydroxybutyric Acid in Various Drink Matrices via AccuTOF-DART*

Abstract: A new screening method for detecting gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) in drink matrices, using the IonSense, Inc. (Saugus, MA) direct analysis in real time (DART) ion source coupled to a JEOL exact mass time-of-flight mass spectrometer (AccuTOF), was validated and compared with the current screening methodology. The DART ion source allows for analysis of samples under ambient conditions with little to no sample preparation. Fifty drink specimens were spiked at levels of 1, 2, 3, and 4 mg/mL GHB, and analyzed on the AccuTOF-DART. Positive detection of GHB occurred for each of the samples at each concentration level, giving 100% accuracy for the samples tested. Twenty-five of the 50 drink specimens were spiked at 1 mg/mL GHB and tested using a color test known as the GHB Color Test #3. Only two of these 25 specimens tested positive for the presence of GHB, giving only 8% accuracy. Implementation of this new methodology as a screening tool for GHB analysis will quickly eliminate negative specimens allowing the examiner to focus analysis time on those that screened positive.     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.