Political competition and foreign policy power sharing

In this essay I examine the intersection of domestic and international politics in the formation and conduct of foreign policy. 1 develop a three‐actor model that allows us to specify the incentives for power sharing under different assumptions about the distribution of preferences and capabilities between a government, a domestic opposition, and a foreign state. The model generates several interesting hypotheses about the interaction of policy goals and the willingness of actors to share power. In particular, I show that under certain conditions there are important asymmetries whereby doves may be more willing to share power than hawks. Importantly, this willingness is endogenous to the model and comes from the alignment of preferences in the policy space, rather than from an a priori value for the democratization of foreign policy making. The model also suggests several hypotheses about the circumstances under which states have incentives to meddle in the foreign policy processes of other states.     

Oslo and Its Aftermath: Lessons Learned from Track Two Diplomacy

Since the collapse of the Oslo peace process and the violence that followed, many scholars have reflected upon the Israeli–Palestinian peace process. Most of this analysis has focused on official negotiations without considering the substantial role that unofficial peace efforts have played in peacebuilding, both prior to and after Oslo. This article, in contrast, seeks to better understand the application of “track two” diplomacy to the Israeli–Palestinian case. It reports on a self‐reflection effort by numerous Israeli–Palestinian peace practitioners to better understand what has worked, what has not, and how new initiatives could be more effectively organized and carried out in the future. The research presented is based on an inventory of seventy‐nine track two projects that occurred between Israelis and Palestinians between 1992 and 2004, personal interviews with many of those who organized and oversaw these projects, and two focus group meetings that brought together a total of forty practitioners. In this article, we seek to better understand two issues: (1) how track two initiatives have changed in scope, organization, and intent; and (2) how track two practitioners have sought to disseminate their work beyond the participants of those initiatives. Our findings present an overall picture of the Israeli–Palestinian second track practice and identify a number of trends and common types of practice. Among the trends we have identified are the following: during the peace process years, more track two initiatives were undertaken with elite/professional participants than with representatives of the grassroots, but in the subsequent decade‐and‐a‐half, Israeli–Palestinian grassroots, track two initiatives gradually replaced senior‐level track two exchanges; most of the grassroots initiatives we studied were relationship focused, whereas those involving elite participants are outcome focused; the track two community subscribes to a set of theoretical propositions about which conditions and contexts facilitate the transmission of track two insights and ideas to the political process, but these propositions have yet to be validated; and track two specialists do little strategic planning about ways to most effectively transfer track two insights and ideas to the political process. Our research also identified four distinct, but not mutually exclusive, approaches to practice: the psychological, the constructivist, the capacity building, and the realistic interest.     

天真与经验:人类灵魂的对立状态--简析布莱克的《天真与经验之歌》

<天真与经验之歌>是布莱克的一部诗歌合集,这部合集可谓英国浪漫主义运动的先河之作.诗人在诗中用他"魔鬼般的智慧"给我们描述了人类两种对立的灵魂状态,即天真状态和经验状态.布莱克所描绘的这个辩证统一的状态直至今日对我们仍具有很强的现实意义.     

完善农村基层民主制度

中国农村基层民主至今已经走过了二十余个年头 ,在这一过程中农村基层民主的建设一方面取得了很大成绩 ,另一方面也暴露出了许多急待解决的问题。本文结合我国农村基层民主建设的实际 ,探讨中国农村基层民主建设过程中存在的问题及其相应的解决方法 ,旨在探索出一条适合我国农村基层民主发展的道路。     

Bayesian networks and the value of the evidence for the forensic two-trace transfer problem*

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.     

谈谈中央红军两次过湘江的人员损失

1934年下半年,中央红军两次从广西东北部渡过湘江。两次过湘江给中央红军造成了多大的人员损失,这是学术界一直争论的问题。通过研究,我们认为,红军第一次过湘江损失较小,第二次渡过湘江,中央红军损失约两万人。     

People‐to‐People Dialogue between North and South Korea: Looking Ahead

The division in the Korean peninsula has lasted more than a half century, and the people on both sides have become quite different in their values, beliefs, behaviors, and lifestyles. As the two sides have increased their exchanges and communications for the last several years, the biggest challenge Korea and its people face is: “How should human relationships be rebuilt after suffering from chronic conflicts between adversary states?” This article considers track two diplomacy/people‐to‐people dialogue as a response to this question and reviews the issues and obstacles related to initiating such a dialogue.     

Ripening Within? Strategies Used by Rebel Negotiators to End Ethnic War

This article explores what strategies rebels use to prepare their ethnic community for negotiated peace. Proposed strategies are distilled from relevant theory and systematically investigated in case analyses of peace negotiations in Sri Lanka, Indonesian Aceh, and Senegal. The empirical findings indicate that although a coercive military capacity underpinned claims to ethnic representation, coercion did not dominate during the prenegotiation phase. During negotiations, noncoercive persuasion, as well as collective and selective incentives, clearly dominated. Moreover, the most important measures were internal to the negotiating rebel group. The successful rebel negotiator appeared to “mobilize in reverse” by initially targeting the core of military leaders followed by competitor groups and constituents. The article systematically examines across cases what measures rebel negotiators have used to “ripen” their own community, how these measures have been sequenced, and against whom they have been directed. The findings have important implications for the concepts of ripeness and prenegotiation and their requirements. The study underscores in particular the relevance of rebels' nonviolent commitment signals, something that has been largely overlooked in the research on nonstate armed actors. The policy implications suggest the possible benefits of third‐party assistance to efforts to promote communication, public outreach, and procedural transparency on the nonstate side in connection with peace talks.     

“两型社会”建设的环境法律制度保障与创新

“资源节约型、环境友好型社会”建设和环境法律制度建设是相互促进的,“两型社会”建设的核心就是完善有利于节约能源资源和保护生态环境的法律和政策,加快形成可持续发展体制机制,这为环境法律制度的发展创新提供了很好的平台。同时,环境法律制度是实现“两型社会”的重要保障,环境法律制度创新是实现“两型社会”的重要途径,通过构建有效的环境保护激励与约束机制,必将推进“两型社会”建设。     

“两个必然”和“两个决不会”的内在统一性及其启示

＂两个必然＂和＂两个决不会＂,是马克思恩格斯在总结不同时期工人运动和无产阶级革命实践的基础上提出的两个著名论断。这两个论断既一脉相承,又有理论的重大发展,成为指导和论证无产阶级革命和建设实践的重要依据。从人类社会历史发展的实践、科学社会主义学说的理论逻辑、＂两个必然＂和＂两个决不会＂论断的认识过程三方面阐述＂两个必然＂和＂两个决不会＂的内在统一性,对更好地认识当前资本主义和社会主义的新形势提供一些启示。