The effects of circulatory capitalism on democratization: Observations from South Africa and Brazil

This article argues that the democratization processes taking place in South Africa and elsewhere in emerging market economies cannot be separated from the global economic context within which these processes are taking place. The article illustrates that the mainstream political economy literature has not paid sufficient attention to the issue of the limits and constraints placed upon these newly emerging democracies by the new financial architecture, particularly the derivatives market, which now determines the value and price of emerging market currencies. The article concludes that the workings of this market not only heavily favour the interests of developed countries but that they deeply question the accountability of politicians in those emerging markets and thereby endanger the legitimacy of the democratic project in large parts of the post-colonial world. The article is divided into three sections: first, a critique of some of the leading political economy analyses and their position on the relationship between open-economy policies and democracy; second, an account of the development of the derivatives market since 1973 and a theorization of its implications for currency movements, particularly monetary volatility, of emerging market currencies; third, an illustration by way of the South African and Brazilian cases of the policy implications of currency volatility for creating improved social and economic conditions.     

Understanding the Accumulation of Local Government Savings: A Dynamic Analysis

Government savings can be a conundrum that perplexes taxpayers. Excessive savings indicate that taxpayers either pay unnecessarily high taxes, or they do not receive adequate returns on services. Insufficient savings leave government officials little financial flexibility. The Great Recession and its aftermath have renewed interest in understanding government savings. This article uses dynamic panel modeling to analyze the determinants of municipal discretionary savings. Results show that risk factors are the primary drivers of municipal savings, and high-risk factors have greater impact on the amount of savings. This finding confirms organization theory’s view of savings as a crucial buffer against risk.     

上海证券市场波动性现状与卖空交易机制建立

在金融市场微观结构理论分析框架下,交易机制的变革以市场质量为评判基准.运用相关模型的实证研究表明,上海证券市场存在着较为明显的波动聚集、波动持续现象,市场整体波动性较大.根据卖空机制的制度功能分析,卖空限制的存在增加了该市场的波动性水平,降低了市场质量,因此有必要在该市场建立卖空交易机制以降低其波动性水平,在建立模式的选择上可以参照香港建立证券登记结算公司模式的卖空机制.     

Democracy in microstates: why smallness does not produce a democratic political system

To fully understand the function of volatility in today's European democracies, it is necessary to employ the principal-agent model. Where democracy is exercised in the form of party government, then it is especially essential to enquire into how the electorate can monitor politicians. Electoral volatility may increase the responsiveness of the party system to the electorate and increase the accountability of politicians. Party system instability is persistently higher in the east European democracies than in western Europe. System transition in eastern Europe passes through the party system, as new parties enter the electoral arena. Political innovation in western Europe also passes through the party system, where new movements appear alongside the established parties. However, there are signs of decreasing volatility in the east, whereas volatility is on the rise in several west European democracies. There will be convergence between west and east European democracies: both will experience considerable volatility in the future. This is a positive gain for democratic vitality in Tingsten's conception. The level of party system fractionalization is already the same over the regions of Europe. The principal-agent model would favour several agents as well as agent switches, which means a moderate level of party system instability.     

政治发展与政治稳定

政治稳定是政治发展的前提和基础,政治发展是政治稳定的目标和保障.只有在政治稳定中实现政治发展,才能跳出政治发展-政治动荡-政治僵化的周期律,走出政治发展与政治动荡的两难境地,实现政治发展与政治稳定的最佳结合和良性互动.     

Crossing Party Lines: Volatility and Ticket Splitting in Mexico (1994–2000)

This article aims to amplify our portrait of the Mexican electorate by examining the ways in which Mexican electors distributed their votes among the parties during 1994–2000, both over successive elections (volatility) and in the same election (ballot splitting). Aggregate and survey data revealed that Mexicans engaged in these two forms of electoral behaviour frequently, indicators of an electorate in flux. Regression analysis indicated that, contrary to the expectation that the politically sophisticated differentiated their votes, virtually all parts of Mexican society were equally likely to switch parties and split tickets.     

Bridging the ideological space: A cross‐national analysis of the distance of party switching

Scholars have investigated the characteristics of volatile voters ever since the first voter surveys were carried out and they have paid specific attention to the role of political sophistication on vote switching. Nevertheless, the exact nature of this relationship is still unclear. With increasing volatility over the past decades this question has furthermore grown in relevance. Is the growing unpredictability of elections mostly driven by sophisticated voters making well‐considered choices or is the balance of power in the hands of unsophisticated ‘floating voters’? Several scholars have argued that even under conditions of increasing volatility switching is still mostly confined to changes to ideologically close parties. Most researchers, however, have used rather crude measures to investigate this ‘leap’ between parties. To advance research in this field, this article directly models the ideological distance bridged by volatile voters when investigating the link between political sophistication and volatility. This is done using Comparative Study of Electoral systems (CSES) data that encompass a broad sample of recent parliamentary elections worldwide. Results indicate that voters with an intermediate level of political knowledge are most likely to switch overall. When taking into account the ideological distance of party switching, however, the confining impact of political knowledge on the vote choices made is clearly dominant, resulting in a linear decrease of the distance bridged as voters become more knowledgeable.     

Patterns of intra-election volatility: the impact of political knowledge*

One key trend changing political environments across advanced industrial democracies is increasing electoral volatility. Despite extensive research, at the individual level we still know relatively little about the mechanisms behind electoral volatility during election campaigns, including the impact of political knowledge. Against this background and based on a four-wave panel study in the context of the 2014 Swedish national election, the purpose of this paper is to investigate (a) patterns of intra-election volatility and the impact of (b) political knowledge on patterns of electoral volatility. Distinguishing between party alienation, crystallization, wavering, reinforcement, and conversion, among other things, findings show some effects from political knowledge on patterns of electoral volatility but only for acquired political knowledge.     

日本对外贸易条件及其波动性检验

本文研究了1960～2009年日本对外贸易条件的发展过程,并将其分为三个主要阶段,同时结合日本经济发展的大致轨迹分析了对外贸易条件变动的原因。并进一步探讨了食品、纺织、化学、金属等6类主要产品部门的贸易条件及其发展过程。通过对贸易条件方程式进行分解,将对外贸易条件波动分为绝对贸易条件效应和相对贸易条件效应,并利用方差分解的方法分析了日本对外贸易条件波动的原因。结合日本对外贸易条件变动的历程和我国的现实,提出了加强科技创新、提升产品附加值,促进产业结构优化和主导产业升级,建立完善对外贸易预警机制和稳定大宗商品供给和价格波动等建议。