中产阶层社会态度流变、异化与历史作用——以西方学者视野的考量

社会态度的社会性、价值性决定了中产阶层的社会态度不是一成不变的,而是流变的、多样的,甚至同一时空中产阶层不同群体的社会态度也不一样。当代西方中产阶层的社会态度是一种自我人格异化,其典型的论述当数米尔斯的"渴望中间过程论"、福塞尔的"驼鸟心态论"和贝尔的"人格分裂论"。西方中产阶层社会态度影响着西方社会的发展,中产阶层早期的革命性态度是现代转型的思想引擎;工业化时期的批判性态度是阻扼工业社会腐败的精神力量;而后工业时期的异化态度则是西方社会精神衰变的心理因素。     

The Impact of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program on the Volatility and Liquidity of the Stock Market

Based on the interaction between the trading mechanism and heterogeneous investors' behavior, using Shanghai stocks data, this paper studies the impact of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect program on the volatility and liquidity of the stock market. The result shows that investors with long-term value investment philosophy carry international market risk to the A-share market, which causes excessive panic among medium and small investors. In the absence of derivatives for effectively avoiding risks, price volatility increases. With the increase of the investment risks, the costs of domestic institutional investors'frequent trading out of excessive speculation increase and the investors who are attracted by the international mature capital markets escape from the mainland. The medium and small investors are gradually becoming more prudent, which leads to the decrease of market liquidity.     

期货收益率极端波动离散间隔的实证研究

本文基于极值理论,以沪铜、大连大豆和郑州硬麦期货为研究对象,应用最大信息熵原理、广义极值分布和K－S拟合检验,实证分析了我国商品期货收益率极端波动的时间间隔的统计分布特征。引入离散的时间间隔来刻画极端波动特征在学术上是个新的尝试。实证结果表明：极端波动的确定是与阈值紧密联系的;我国商品期货收益率的极端波动间隔时间服从广义极值分布;期货收益率极端波动时间间隔序列具有集聚性;运用条件期望值--波动模型预测极端波动间隔是可行的。这些成果为监管层度量极端波动强度和控制风险提供了有效的方法。