List of referees 1990–1991

List of referees 1990–1991     

Appeals to Reason

This article considers how statistical reasoning changes conceptions of evidence and proof. Beginning with three Court of Appeal judgments in which proof is quantified, it traces the implications of statistical ways of thinking about proof through the law of criminal evidence. This leads to the bizarre conclusion that proof is, by and large, impossible. The argument then takes a more constructive turn. The way in which the presumption of innocence is conceptualised in statistical argument is criticised and it is suggested that proof depends on a precondition of trust in the way suspects are selected by the police. For that trust to be deserved, police suspects must be chosen in a legitimate manner.     

Project USA: American competitiveness and what must be done to restore it

The United States today faces a loss of influence as a world power, a reduction in American independence as a policymaker, and a decline in the standard of living on which Americans have come to depend. History teaches that nations weaker and less productive than the United States can rise to become economic powerhouses and rapidly increase their standards of living. History also teaches that nations failing to recognize their fundamental problems will inevitably decline. American politicians must face what is abundantly clear: the United States is losing ground and must act quickly to reverse its course. This White Paper outlines what must be done. Information about the nation's current status must be analyzed and communicated. Incentives to improve the level of competence in government must be provided and maintained. The emphasis of government policy must be changed to reflect broad economic and technological interests as opposed to special interests. Savings must be encouraged and increased. Infrastructure must be improved Tax laws must be modified to help bring these changes about. Economic and technological issues must be elevated to the importance they require. American thinking must reflect the new realities: that the age of leadership through military power is over, that the requirements for success in the world of the 1990s and beyond require a sound and growing economy that is internationally competitive. The US can accomplish these goals only through foundation-shaking, comprehensive, fundamental changealong the lines we propose herein.This paper is the executive summary (with minor editing modifications) of a white paper that is available from Cornell University's Johnson Graduate School of Management.     

Book reviews

Roland Axtmann, Liberal democracy into the twenty‐first century: Globalization, integration and the nation‐state (Manchester University Press, Manchester, 1996), 198 pp., ISBN 0–7190–4304–2 (hb), 0–7190–4305–0 (pb)

Paul Kapteyn, The Stateless Market: The European Dilemma of Civilization (Routledge, London and New York, 1996), 194 pp., ISBN 0–415–12232–5 (hb), 0–415–12233–3 (pb)

Richard Werbner and Terence Ranger (eds), Postcolonial Identities in Africa (Zed Books, London & New Jersey, 1996), 292 pp., ISBN 1–85649–415–2 (hb), 1–85649–416–0 (pb)

Mark Wheeler, Politics and the Mass Media (Blackwell, Oxford, 1997), 274 pp., ISBN 0–631–19783–4 (hb), 0–631–19784–2 (pb)

Nigel Harris, The New Untouchables: Immigration and the New World Worker (Penguin Books, London, 1995), 254 pp., ISBN 0–14–014689‐X (pb)

Gilles Kepel, Allah in the West (Polity Press, Cambridge, 1997), 273 pp., ISBN 0–7456–1557–0 (hb), 0–7456–1558–9 (pb)

Leonard Weinberg, The Transformation of Italian Communism (Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 1995), 147 pp., ISBN 1–56000–180–1 (hb)

Brian Jenkins and Spyros A. Sofos (eds), Nation and Identity in Contemporary Europe (Routledge, London, 1996), x + 294pp., ISBN 0–415–12312–7 (hb), 0–415–12313–5 (pb)

Stuart Parkes, Understanding Contemporary Germany (Routledge, London, 1997), 247 pp., ISBN 0–415–14123–0 (hb), 0–415–14124–9 (pb)     

Reviews

Vladimir Mau, The Political History of Economic Reform in Russia, 1985–1994 (Foreword by Lord Skidelsky; afterword by Egor Gaidar). London: Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1996, viii + 135 pp. £9.95.

Tim McDaniel, The Agony of the Russian Idea. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, x + 201 pp. £24.95.

John Lowenhardt, The Reincarnation of Russia. Struggling with the Legacy of Communism, 1990–1994. Harlow: Longman, 1995, xii + 238 pp. £12.99.

Jeffrey W. Hahn (ed.), Democratization in Russia: The Development of Legislative Institutions. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, 328 pp., $63.95 h/b, $24.95 p/b.

Celeste A. Wallander (ed.), The Sources of Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Boulder Co: Westview, 1996, xi + 233 pp., £15.50.

David Cox, Retreating from the Cold War: Germany, Russia and the Withdrawal of the Western Group of Forces, London: Macmillan, 1996, xiv + 185 pp., £35.00.

Mark Webber, The International Politics of Russia and the Successor States. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1996, xvii + 366 pp. £14.99.

Michael Kraus & Ronald D. Liebowitz (eds), Russia and Eastern Europe after Communism: The Search for New Political, Economic and Security Systems. Boulder, Co: Westview Press, 1996, xv+ 349 pp., £51.95.

Ivan T. Berend, Central and Eastern Europe, 1944–1993: Detour from Periphery to Periphery. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xvii + 414 pp., £45.00.

Hubert Tworzecki, Parties and Politics in Post‐1989 Poland. Boulder, Co: Westview, 1996 xv + 219 pp.,

Jaroslav Krej?í & Pavel Machonin, Czechoslovakia 1918–92: A Laboratory for Social Change. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996, xviii + 266 pp., £42.50.

Jon Elster (ed.), The Roundtable Talks and the Breakdown of Communism. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 1996, vi + 247 pp., £31.95.

J. Eatwell, M. Ellman, M. Nuti & J. Shapiro, Transformation and Integration: Shaping the Future of Central and Eastern Europe. London: Institute for Public Policy Research, 1995, 206 pp.

D. Gross & A. Steinherr, Winds of Change—Economic Transition in Central and Western Europe. London: Longman, 1995.

Constantine Michalopoulos & David Tarr, Trade Performance and Policy in the New Independent States. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1996, vi + 30 pp.

Laurila Juhani, Finnish‐Soviet Clearing Trade and Payment System: History and Lessons. Helsinki: Bank of Finland, 1995, 144 pp.

Walter R. Iwaskiw (ed.), Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: Country Studies. Washington, DC: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1996, xxxix + 304 pp.

Peter Unwin, Baltic Approaches. Wilby Hall, Norwich: Michael Russell, 1996, 256 pp., £19.50.

Yegor Ligachev, Inside Gorbachev's Kremlin: The Memoirs of Yegor Ligachev. Boulder, CO: Westview, 1996, xxxix + 407 pp., £19.00.

Hillel Ticktin & Michael Cox (eds), The Ideas of Leon Trotsky. London: Porcupine Press, 1995, viii + 386 pp., £14.95.

Folke Dovring, Leninism: Political Economy as Pseudoscience, Westport,: Praeger, 1996, xi + 155 pp., £39.95.

Kevin Anderson, Lenin, Hegel, and Western Marxism: A Critical Study, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1995, xvii + 311 pp., $49.95 h/b, $15.95 p/b.

Ragnar E. Löfstedt & Gunnar Sjöstedt (eds), Environmental Aid Programmes to Eastern Europe, Aldershot: Avebury, 1996, ix+226 pp., £37.50.

Seabron Adamson, Robin Bates, Robert Laslett & Alberto Potoschnig, Energy Use, Air Pollution, and Environmental Policy in Krakow: Can Economic Incentives Really Help? Washington DC: The World Bank, 1996, 67 pp.

Alexander S. Preker & Richard G.A. Feachem, Market Mechanisms and the Health Sector in Central and Eastern Europe. Washington DC: The World Bank, 1995, 48 pp.

Adrian Room, Placenames of Russia and the Former Soviet Union. London: McFarland 1996, v + 282 pp., £52.65.

G. S. Smith, The Letters of D. S. Mirsky to P. P. Suvchinskii, 1922–31. Birmingham: Department of Russian Language and Literature, University of Birmingham, 1995, vii + 238 pp., £16.00

Nicholas Rzhevsky (ed.), An Anthology of Russian Literature from Earliest Writings to Modern Fiction: Introduction to a Culture. London: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, xiv + 587 pp.

Donald J. Raleigh (ed.), The Emperors and Empresses of Russia: Rediscovering the Romanovs. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, xviii + 414 pp., $59.95 h/b, $23.95 p/b.

Maureen Perrie, Pretenders and Popular Monarchism in Early Modern Russia: The False Tsars of the Time of Troubles. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, xvii + 269 pp. £40.00.     

Receipt of multiple benefits by disabled-worker beneficiaries

In 1971, 44 percent of workers who had been currently entitled to social security disability insurance (DI) benefits for 1 year or more also received benefits from at least one other source. Their average disability insurance benefit was higher than that of persons who received only DI benefits. On the average, total benefits to those receiving multiple benefits were double the amounts paid to those receiving only DI benefits. The combined benefits for the former produced median replacement rates about 50 percent larger than the median replacement rates for the latter. High replacement rates--defined here as more than 80 percent of predisability earnings replaced by benefit--predominate among those with multiple benefits. Considering replacement rates based solely on disability insurance benefits substantially understates the extent to which benefits from public and private programs actually replace predisability earnings. Replacement rates based solely on DI benefits are generally higher for those receiving DI benefits only than for persons receiving multiple benefits. Limiting DI benefits to the replacement rate from DI benefits alone is disadvantageous for persons who receive only DI benefits, compared with those who also receive other benefits.     

Social welfare functions when preferences are convex,strictly monotonic,and continuous

The paper shows that if the class of admissible preference orderings is restricted in a manner appropriate for economic and political models, then Arrow's impossibility theorem for social welfare functions continues to be valid. Specifically if the space of alternatives is R ₊ ⁿ , n ≥ 3, where each dimension represents a different public good and if each person's preferences are restricted to be convex, continuous, and strictly monotonic, then no social welfare function exists that satisfies unanimity, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and nondictatorship.     

A Failure of Good Intentions: An Analysis of Juvenile Justice Reform in San Francisco during the 1990s

This study examines the impact of juvenile justice on San Francisco's youth detention population during the 1990s. Because successful juvenile justice reform is measured by reductions in both detention populations and the disproportionate impact on minority youth, this study attempts to evaluate two closely related issues: (1) Did San Francisco juvenile justice reform lead to reductions in juvenile detention bookings? (2) Did San Francisco juvenile justice reform reduce disproportionate minority confinement? The results of the study demonstrated that in fact neither of these results occurred. The data clearly show that what happened instead was “net widening” whereby offenders previously excluded from the juvenile justice system were processed. This was especially the case for minority females, whose rate of detention increased more than any other group. Implications for social policies are discussed.