Embedded policy preferences and the formation of international arrangements after the Asian financial crisis

New bilateral and multilateral arrangements emerged after the Asian financial crisis in the areas of financial assistance, financial regulation, and exchange rate stabilization. Strikingly, however, very few such arrangements emerged at the regional level. This paper argues that (1) the success of bilateral and international arrangements was the result of policy preference compatibility among East Asian countries and (2) the countries’ policy preferences can be explained as a function of their financial system features (securities-market-based or bank-credit-based) and external balance positions (capital-dependent or capital-sufficient). Although this framework cannot predict whether countries will agree on a particular policy proposal, it can explain the diversity of their proposals, the likely lines of conflict, the nature of their compromises, and why certain proposals succeed (or fail) even without the strong support (or opposition) of major powers.     

The Problem of Macroeconomic Policy Crossroads:Explaining the Economic Policy Paradox of Switzerland and Japan in the 1990s

The 1990s, which can be characterized as a decade of disinflationary growth and austerity policies for most developed market democracies, was the decade of stagnant growth and policy complacency for Switzerland and Japan. Based on a framework that emphasizes the structure of policy choices available to governments at economic crossroads (or crisis), I show Switzerland and Japan are unique in that (a) disinflationary fundamentals spared the countries from speculative or inflationary pressure that required drastic responses and (b) the governments paradoxically maintained conservative economic policies despite room for expansion in order to continue policies based on the compromise between export and domestic sectors. The policy crossroads perspective stresses the importance of endogenous coalitions even in a world of economic globalization to explain concerted politics and conservative policies, and to assess the true impact of international finance on domestic changes.