Decision theory,reasonable doubt,and the utility of erroneous acquittals

A criminal-trial juror votes to convict or acquit a defendant in the knowledge that the vote may be in error: False convictions and false acquittals are unavoidable in human fact-finding systems. We show here that rigorous consistency relationships exist between the juror's assessments of the relative desirability of the four possible trial outcomes and his or her threshold level of reasonable doubt. However, numerical values for reasonable doubt commonly obtained by direct questioning are significantly at variance with those obtained indirectly by computation from evaluations of the four possible outcomes. The disparity is, we argue, no mere methodological detail, but a potentially fundamental substantive issue which has historically been masked by the vagueness of verbal expressions of probability and utility.Helpful comments on earlier drafts from Gary Wagner, Michael Gottfredson, Brian Thorn, Rick Greenstein, Vernon Greene, John Bartholdi, and two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.     

Book reviews

Vernon Hewitt, The New International Politics of South Asia (Manchester University Press, Manchester and New York, 1997), xxxvi +305 pp., ISBN 0–7190–5121–5 (hb), 0–7190–5122–3 (pb)

Ruth Lister, Citizenship: Feminist Perspectives (Macmillan, London, 1997), 284 pp., ISBN 0–333–53488–3

Martin Bull and Martin Rhodes (eds), Crisis and Transition in Italian Politics (Frank Cass, London, 1997), 253 pp., ISBN 0–7146–4816–7 (hb), 0–7146–4366–1 (pb)

Linda McDougall, Westminster Women (Vintage, London, 1998), 215 pp., ISBN 0–09–927405–1     

Interpersonal Correlates of Peer Victimization Among Young Adolescents

Empathy, prosocial behavior, the number of friends, self-reported popularity, and various forms of interpersonal forgiveness were examined as predictors of peer victimization among 52 7th and 8th graders attending a private school. Popularity was the strongest individual predictor of teacher-reported victimization with high popularity associated with low victimization. Malestudents reported significantly higher rates of victimization than females, prompting the decision to examine correlates of self-reported victimization separately by gender. Interpersonal forgiveness scores were the strongest predictors of self-reported victimization; however, different forms of forgiveness were the greatest predictors of male and female self-reported victimization. Implications are discussed.     

Paul D. Cravath, The First World War, and the Anglophile Internationalist Tradition

The First World War played a central role in the creation within the United States of an Atlanticist foreign policy elite or establishment, a group of influential Americans drawn primarily from upper class lawyers, bankers, academics, and politicians of the Eastern seaboard, committed to a strand of Anglophile internationalism which to date has received considerably less scholarly attention than that of Wilsonian universalism. The evolution of the Atlanticist Establishment can be traced in the career of Paul D. Cravath, one of New York's foremost corporation lawyers. For Cravath, in his mid-fifties when the war began, the conflict served as an epiphany, sparking an interest in international affairs that dominated his remaining career. Fiercely Anglophile, he strongly supported American intervention in the war, and hoped that close Anglo-American cooperation would be the guiding principle of post-war international organization. In the 1920s Cravath urged the reduction of both German reparations and inter-allied war debts; he also supported United States membership in the World Court. Before his death in July 1940 Cravath, though initially far from optimistic that his country would once more take arms against Germany in the Second World War, was as staunchly pro-Allied as during the previous conflict.     

Adolescent Daughters’ Romantic Competence: The Role of Divorce,Quality of Parenting,and Maternal Romantic History

This study examined the links between parental divorce, quality of maternal parenting, spousal relationships and middle adolescent romantic competence in 80 mother-adolescent daughter pairs (40 divorced). Mothers were asked to describe their attitudes and behaviors with regard to their daughters’ romantic behavior. In addition, mothers were interviewed about their own romantic experiences when they were at the age of their daughters. Adolescent girls (mean age = 16.98 years; range 16–18) were administered a comprehensive interview about romantic competence. Findings indicated that adolescent girls from divorced families showed lower levels of romantic competence, which were expressed in their behavior, attitudes toward relationships and skill in handling those relationships. Divorce was found to have had an adverse effect on girls’ romantic competence, whereas continued adaptive parenting and spousal relationships alleviated the effect of divorce. Mothers’ coherent representation of their own adolescent romantic experiences also alleviated the effect of divorce on daughters’ romantic behavior. Results show the important role of family relationships in fostering romantic competence among adolescent girls.