THE OBSERVER

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Electoral volatility and parties’ ideological responsiveness

For a number of decades now, scholars have been indicating that ties between citizens and parties are eroding. As a consequence, electoral behaviour has become more volatile and also more unpredictable. The consequences of this process of change on parties’ strategic behaviour have, however, received little attention. In this article, the impact of dealignment on parties’ strategic behaviour is examined, with the focus being on the extent to which parties are responsive to the mean voter. The expectation of dealignment allowing parties ‘to move around more freely’ leads to the hypothesis that parties are more responsive in a context of dealignment. The analyses provide evidence that is in line with this expectation. Ideological responsiveness is conditioned by the level of volatility in the electorate. The conclusion to draw from these results is that dealignment, which profoundly affects voters’ behaviour, leads parties to become more responsive to the mean voter.     

Testing times: Exploring staged responses and the impact of blame management strategies in two examination fiasco cases

This article examines the responses of ministers facing high levels of blame in the press after serious failures in the public exam system for school-leavers in Scotland in 2000 and England in 2002. It develops a method for systematic analysis and comparison of the behaviour of officeholders facing blame, tests the hypothesis that ministers will accept personal culpability only after other ways of handling blame have been exhausted and uses time series intervention models to show how one can estimate the impact of strategies on the next day's blame level. The basic sequencing hypothesis is partially upheld by the observed behaviour in these cases, though many other kinds of blame responses do not display a clear sequence. The intervention analysis also raises questions about the claimed effectiveness of presentational strategies for managing blame.     

The Australian Republic Referendum, 1999

The 1999 Australian republic referendum was intended to finalise the nation-building process begun in the mid-nineteenth century and to exploit growing national consciousness in the wake of post-World War II cosmopolitan immigration and the 1988 bicentenary. Despite strong republican support recorded by opinion polls and a broadly favourable media climate the proposal to institute a republic was defeated. The article summarises the campaign and explores some of the reasons that have been advanced, including the part played by the prime minister, for its outcome; it concludes that 'the model' might have been a contributory factor, but probably not the sole explanation. A re-run is unlikely before the election of a sympathetic, probably Labor, government. The episode illustrates the immensity of the difficulty facing republicans in Britain where similarly favourable conditions are inconceivable in the foreseeable future.