Duration of the time to reconviction: Evidence from UK prisoner discharge data

Duration models were used to investigate reconviction risks for a sample of 34,126 offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1998. Different versions of the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to a comprehensive data set covering several offense types. Factors such as age (modelled using bands rather than a linear or quadratic format), gender, convictions-history, and offense type were found to be strongly associated with the risk of reconviction. Interactions between factors were also included and it was shown that the discrepancy between the risk of reconviction for males and females became weaker as the number of previous convictions increased. The study helped identify the subgroups of offenders for whom reconviction risks are greatest and the times when they seem to be most vulnerable to reconviction. Implications are explored for the design of prisoner resettlement programs and the prioritization of offenders for more intensive forms of intervention.     

Renminbi appreciation and Global Value Chains in China: exploring the linkages

China has experienced a rapid integration into Global Value Chains and a decade long appreciation of its exchange rate. However, these trends have been analysed largely in isolation from each other. In this paper, we explore the linkages between the two based on interviews with a sample of firms in Jiangsu Province. We show (1) how the distribution of the costs and benefits of exchange rate appreciation depends on the power hierarchies between firms in GVCs; (2) how exchange rate changes are important drivers of upgrading and even downgrading in GVCs; and (3) that the firm heterogeneity evident in GVCs provides additional insights into the politics of exchange rate determination in China.     

Household dissolution, child care and divorce law

This paper sets up a model of household dissolution in which one party decides to leave a household that contains children. We study the effects of divorce law on this decision and, in particular, the role of legal provisions governing the post-dissolution care of the household’s children. In particular, we show that there is an inevitable tension between achieving efficiency in marriage and at the same time achieving efficiency in divorce.     

The uses of hermeneutics for feminist scholarship

Although feminist scholars must be primarily devoted to understanding the experience of women, we can also use the critique of logocentrism being made by male thinkers of the hermeneutic/interpretive persuasion. The bulk of male scholarship in these movements has been unable to move beyond the preliminary effort of a negative critique of the limitations and irrelevancies of the traditional/scientistic methodology. Feminist scholarship has not only stood critical of traditional assumptions but has made the positive move of putting forth alternative epistemologies which use experience, intuition and evaluation as modes of knowing. For these new ideas to emerge in a powerful way, there has to be a locus for their emergence. Women's Studies is that place.     

Family Influences on Female Offenders’ Substance Use: The Role of Adverse Childhood Events among Incarcerated Women

Childhood maltreatment, witnessing violence, and growing up with absent, addicted, or mentally ill caregivers influence adult physical and psychological well-being and may play an important role in female offending. This study utilizes data from a study of 60 incarcerated women to examine a possible intervening variable in the victimization-crime relationship. We conduct qualitative analyses to examine family influences on substance use among female offenders. Findings indicate that substance use may arise from a need to cope with child victimization and adversity, and that factors such as poor parental supervision may contribute to girls’ substance use. After onset of drug use, many women may turn to further criminal activity to support their habits. Implications for research and intervention are addressed.     

The dilemmas of market socialism: Capital market reform in China ‐ part II: Shares

This two‐part article analyses the attempts to reform the socialist financial system in China by diversifying financial assets and introducing capital markets. The approach used is that of political economy, in the sense of elucidating the interplay between political and economic interests, actors and issues in the reform process.

Part I discusses the issue of bonds by governments and enterprises. Although the reform era has seen gradual progress towards something resembling a bond ‘market’ in terms of a diversification of bond types and growing competition between bond issues, there is no evidence that this has improved allocative efficiency in the economy. Rather, bonds have functioned as one instrument in a complex struggle for resources between political, institutional and economic actors in the context of a continuing ‘shortage economy’. This competitive system falls far short of a true ‘market'; rather it embodies powerful systemic factors reflecting the basic structural and institutional features of a semi‐reformed socialist economy.

One of these systemic factors is the institution of social ownership of the means of production which has been called into question by the emergence of shares and share markets, a process we discuss in Part II. Share issues have in the event been economically unimportant but politically important since they challenge the ideological and institutional underpinnings of a ‘socialist’ economy. The key to the future of this form of financial liberalisation depends not merely on further progress in complementary areas of economic reform policy, but also on a resolution of these fundamental political issues.     

Crime Reporting Decisions and the Costs of Crime

The paper develops a model of crime reporting based on an economic approach. It identifies the principal costs and benefits of reporting from the victim’s perspective, taking account of insurance provision and the risk of intimidation by an offender. It shows how a victim might use backward induction to infer a rational reporting strategy. The recording of crime by the police is a process that relies on victim reports, and is thus influenced by the reporting decisions made by victims. The paper uses empirical evidence from the British Crime Survey and from the International Crime Victims Survey to explore the hypotheses generated by the model. It finds support for the suggestion that the propensity to report a crime increases with the size of the loss entailed. The paper also explores the implications of the findings for the estimation of the costs of crime. Reporting and intimidation costs are generally excluded from bottom-up estimates of costs, an omission that may be quite serious in the context of offences such as domestic violence.