Gas Supply and EU–Russia Relations

Drawing on New Institutional Economics (NIE) theory, the article argues that EU energy policy towards Russia damages security of supply because it neglects the specific aims and propensities of Russia and Gazprom. EU Commission initiatives are based on the promotion of interdependence through market opening, favouring a policy of competition over security of supply. The reason for this focus is found in the EU's embedded inclination towards liberal markets. Russia, by contrast, has chosen suboptimal state control of natural resources over the frontier capitalism of the 1990s. Sustainability of the current rent based system and geopolitical considerations are essential to Russia and Gazprom. In this situation a pragmatic approach that aims at security of supply and security of demand seems to be more successful. In this approach, liberalisation of the market can only be a long-term goal.     

Living in the Past or Living in the Future? Analyzing Parties’ Platform Change In Between Elections,The Netherlands 1997–2014

Do parties change their platform in anticipation of electoral losses? Or do parties respond to experienced losses at the previous election? These questions relate to two mechanisms to align public opinion with party platforms: (1) rational anticipation, and (2) electoral performance. While extant work empirically tested, and found support for, the latter mechanism, the effect of rational anticipation has not been put to an empirical test yet. We contribute to the literature on party platform change by theorizing and assessing how party performance motivates parties to change their platform in-between elections. We built a new and unique dataset of >20,000 press releases issued by 15 Dutch national political parties that were in parliament between 1997 and 2014. Utilizing automated text analysis (topic modeling) to measure parties’ platform change, we show that electoral defeat motivates party platform change in-between elections. In line with existing findings, we demonstrate that parties are backward-looking.     

The Impact of Natural Resources: Survey of Recent Quantitative Evidence

Abstract

The cross-country empirical evidence for the natural resource curse is ample, but unfortunately fraught with econometric difficulties. A recent wave of studies on measuring the impact of natural resource windfalls on the economy exploits novel datasets such as giant oil discoveries to identify effects of windfalls, uses natural experiments and within-country econometric analysis, and estimates local impacts. These studies offer more hope in the search of quantitative evidence.     

The Dutch parliamentary election of May 1986

After a rather uneventful election campaign, the results of the May 1986 Dutch parliamentary election were a surprise to virtually all involved. Since the introduction of regular opinion polling in the 1960s, no election has taken place when the polls were ‘wrong’. However, in 1986 last minute shifts that were stronger than had ever occurred in the Netherlands produced results that differed significantly from the predictions based upon the polls published immediately prior to the election.     

Anti-immigrant parties in Europe: Ideological or protest vote?

Abstract. In this article we address the question whether or not the votes for anti–immigrant parties can be considered as protest votes. We define protest votes by the motives underlying electoral choices, building on earlier research done by Tillie (1995) and Van der Eijk & Franklin (1996). That research showed that ideological proximity and party size are the best predictors of party preference. On this basis we designed a typology of motives for party choice and how these motives would manifest themselves empirically. Analyzing the 1994 elections for the European Parliament for seven political systems we show that anti–immigrant parties attract no more protest votes than other parties do, with only one exception: the Dutch Centrumdemocraten. Voting for anti–immigrant parties is largely motivated by ideological and pragmatic considerations, just like voting for other parties. In addition, (negative) attitudes towards immigrants have a stronger effect on preferences for anti–immigrant parties than on preference for other parties. Social cleavages and attitudes towards European unification are of minor importance as determinants of preferences for anti–immigrant parties. The overall conclusion is that a rational choice model of electoral behavior has strong explanatory power for party preferences in general, but also for the support for anti–immigrant parties in particular.     

Root Morphology and Anatomical Patterns in Forensic Dental Identification: A Comparison of Computer‐Aided Identification with Traditional Forensic Dental Identification*

Abstract: An online forensic dental identification exercise was conducted involving 24 antemortem–postmortem (AM–PM) dental radiograph pairs from actual forensic identification cases. Images had been digitally cropped to remove coronal tooth structure and dental restorations. Volunteer forensic odontologists were passively recruited to compare the AM–PM dental radiographs online and conclude identification status using the guidelines for identification from the American Board of Forensic Odontology. The mean accuracy rate for identification was 86.0% (standard deviation 9.2%). The same radiograph pairs were compared using a digital imaging software algorithm, which generated a normalized coefficient of similarity for each pair. Twenty of the radiograph pairs generated a mean accuracy of 85.0%. Four of the pairs could not be used to generate a coefficient of similarity. Receiver operator curve and area under the curve statistical analysis confirmed good discrimination abilities of both methods (online exercise = 0.978; UT‐ID index = 0.923) and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient analysis (0.683) indicated good correlation between the results of both methods. Computer‐aided dental identification allows for an objective comparison of AM–PM radiographs and can be a useful tool to support a forensic dental identification conclusion.     

Personal,background and treatment characteristics associated with offending after residential treatment: A 13-year follow up in adolescent males

Abstract

We report on delinquency for 270 males after residential treatment in a juvenile justice institution in the Netherlands. We describe personality characteristics, relations with peers, school and family, as well as treatment characteristics. Next, we describe post-release offending based on reconviction data, and relate this to background characteristics, differentiating between serious and violent offending. In doing so, we distinguish between incidental offenders, chronic offenders and desisters.     

Interviewing women bereaved by homicide: assessing the impact of trauma-focused research

Abstract

The use of swearwords has hardly been investigated scientifically. Virtually nothing is known about the efficacy of swearing. The present studies set out to investigate whether the inclusion of swearwords in a testimony increases the believability of that statement. In study 1, respondents were simply asked whether they believed that using swearwords is a sign of credibility, a sign of deceit, or neither. In the second and third study, participants had to read fictitious testimonies of a suspect and a victim, respectively. Participants were exposed to testimonies with or without swearwords. The results suggested that people self-reported to find swearwords a sign of deceit (study 1), but when actually confronted with a statement, the opposite turned out to be the case (studies 2 and 3). That is, testimonies containing swearwords were perceived as more credible than swearword-free testimonies. Hence it is concluded that swearing increases believability of statements.