Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth. This article challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship through a quantitative assessment of the democracy-growth literature. It applies meta-regression analysis to the population of 483 estimates derived from 84 studies on democracy and growth. Using traditional meta-analysis estimators, the bootstrap, and Fixed and Random Effects meta-regression models, it derives several robust conclusions. Taking all the available published evidence together, it concludes that democracy does not have a direct impact on economic growth. However, democracy has robust, significant, and positive indirect effects through higher human capital, lower inflation, lower political instability, and higher levels of economic freedom. Democracies may also be associated with larger governments and less free international trade. There also appear to be country- and region-specific democracy-growth effects. Overall, democracy's net effect on the economy does not seem to be detrimental.     

Does aid improve democracy and governance? A meta-regression analysis

The paper provides a systematic and quantitative review of the empirical evidence on the effects of development aid on democracy and governance. We find that aid has had, on average, a zero or negative effect on democracy, except that it has had a positive effect on democratization in European transitional economies. Aid had a positive effect on governance during the Cold War period but has had no effect on governance in the post-Cold War period.     

Do jurisdictions compete on taxes? A meta-regression analysis

A sizable empirical literature examines government fiscal interactions. However, the empirical evidence is very mixed. We apply meta-regression analysis to quantify the size of inter-jurisdictional fiscal interactions and to explain the heterogeneity in empirical estimates. Several robust results emerge. While there are significant country differences, tax interactions exist in all countries studied and they are strongest in terms of total tax and weakest in terms of income tax. Interactions differ according to level of government: compared to the municipal level, horizontal tax competition is stronger when the jurisdiction is a county or a nation. We show that tax competition has actually not grown over time and that econometric specifications and estimation strategies influence reported fiscal interactions.     

The Robust Result in Meta-analysis of Aid Effectiveness: A Response to Mekasha and Tarp

In this response to Mekasha and Tarp (2013) we show that contrary to what they state, their study validates our basic analysis. They confirm that the literature finds that aid is of little economic importance in generating growth. The results also show that the literature systematically selects control variables for their effect on aid effectiveness. We argue that their choice of the random effects model is not appropriate for the problem at hand, and that the way they use multiple meta-regression analysis contradicts the robust results reached at the basic analysis.