The effect of predatory rent-seeking on household saving and portfolio choices: A cross section analysis

The existence of predatory behavior, when measured by the number of lawyers per capita and the crime rate, seems to have an impact on saving and investment behavior in U.S. households. Where the risk of redistribution are lowest, the incentives to save are higher and, a fortiriori, the willingness to invest in highly vulnerable financial instruments is enhanced. Either because of low saving rates or because of disintermediation, households in states where the risks of redistribution are greater avoid accumulating financial assets.Recent years have seen a considerable decline in the U.S. saving rate. There is also evidence of large differences in saving rates from one country to another, with U.S. households among the lowest savers. Yet not all of these variations have been explained satisfactorily in empirical studies based on conventional theory. Perhaps one explanation which has been inadequately studied is the reduced expected retirement time horizon whether it be due to objective conditions such as retirement age and life expectancy or to uncertainty. Some reasons for myopic planning horizons are macroeconomic instability (McCauley and Zimer, 1989), the possibility of nuclear war (Slemrod, 1982, 1986 and 1989); Henderschott and Peek, 1985 and 1987); and the fear of socio-political conflict (Stewart and Venieris, 1985). I have suggested and tested here yet another factor: the fear of future redistribution. Using differences in interest income across U.S. states, this paper shows that fear of redistribution does seem to have a large influence on saving behavior.     

CHILD SUPPORT IN THE UNITED STATES

This article reports on the results of a telephone survey conducted with a random sample of households screened for eligibility to receive child support in the state of Colorado. Despite the recent enactment of ambitious child legislation at the state and federal levels, the accounts of 731 custodial parents reveal a massive level of unmet need, with child support problems being most extreme for those never married to the chilďs other parent. These mothers typically lack an order establishing a legal obligation to pay child support and have incomes that fall below the poverty level. Overall, women of Colorado with child support orders received only about half of the support they were due, and 73 per cent of all women due support reported that they had experienced problems in collecting support either currently or in the past. The average amount of back due child support owed to the 60 per cent of women in the sample who reported an arrearage was $12,000. Analysis revealed that payment behaviour tracked with the length of time since separation with payment patterns worsening over time and irregular visitation and/or the presence of problems around child access. Female obligors exhibited the same payment patterns as their male counterparts but were more apt to maintain visitation. The article documents the dramatic, negative economic consequences of irregular or missing child support payments for custodial parents, and discusses the additional legal and financial commitments needed to improve the situation. The efficacy of private child support transfers to achieve an adequate standard of living for all children is called into question.     

The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choice's likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of wishful thinking, we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.     

Contribution à une analyse narrative de la théorie institutionnelle

Conclusion Que faut-il penser de la co-existence de trois modèles différents pour interpréter l'élément central de la théorie institutionnelle de MacCormick? Cette pluralité de modèles n'est source de perturbations que pour ceux qui tiennent à défendre l'idée selon laquelle il n'y a qu'une seule forme possible de discours juridique. Dès qu'il est accepté — comme hypothèse de base — que les formes d'organisation de ce type de discours peuvent être multiples, la perspective est inversée.C'est le schéma explicatif — dit schéma narratif — qui est alors unique. Quant aux différentes variantes de la formule de MacCormick, elles représentent les altérations de cette définition en fonction de paramètres identifiables — et identifiés — comme le statut des différents actants et acteurs, la définition de l'objet de valeur final dont ils cherchent à s'emparer et les objets de valeur d'usage dont ils se servent.L'éclatement de la formule de Maccormick ne correspond alors plus à un rejet mais bien à une mise en question. Cette remise en question débouchant sur la reconnaissance de plusieurs schémas narratifs, nous devons nous demander dans quelle mesure notre perception de la phasep correspond à l'idée que s'en fait MacCormick. S'agit-il seulement de la procédure au sens juridique du mot ou de tout un ensemble d'actes permettant de persuader un destinateur comme un juge ou une administration de la coïncidence entre un parcours narratif effectif et le type idéal de parcours narratif qu'ils tirent de la lecture des normes juridiques?S'il s'agit bien de la procédure au sens juridique de ce mot, il faut alors préciser au terme de cette analyse sémio-narrative que l'ensemble des phénomènes pragmatiques — comme les interactions dans le cas d'une procédure orale — ne sont pris en compte ni par la formule de MacCormick, ni par la présente discussion mais qu'ils relèvent d'une recherche particulière sur cette dimension supplémentaire, certes compatible avec la théorie sémiotique mais pas avec la théorie institutionnelle de MacCormick. Pour conclure, nous dirons donc qu'il est possible d'intégrer certains éléments de cette dernière théorie dans un cadre plus général mais qu'elle sera vite transformée à la fois de l'intérieur par la reconnaissance d'une pluralité des formes du discours et de l'extérieur par son intégration partielle dans un schéma plus large qui vise à décrire un phénomène dans son intégralité.     

'Designing Better Health Care in the South': A Case Study of Unsuccessful Transformational Change in Public Sector Health Service Reform

This article presents a case study of a project known as 'Designing Better Health Care in the South' that attempted to transform four separately incorporated health services in southern Adelaide into a single regional health service. The project's efforts are examined using Kotter's (1996) model of the preconditions for transformational change in organisations and the areas in which it met or failed to meet these preconditions are analysed, using results from an evaluation that was commenced during the course of the attempted reform. The article provides valuable insights into an attempted major change by four public sector health organisations and the facilitators and barriers to such change. It also examines the way in which forces beyond the control of individual public sector agencies can significantly impact on attempts to implement organisational change in response to an identified need. This case study offers a rare glimpse into the micro detail of health care reform processes that are so widespread in contemporary health services but which are rarely systematically evaluated.