Can Lebanon's Economy Be Saved? A Plan for Revival

The recent financial and economic meltdown in Lebanon is the result of 30 years of social, economic, financial, and fiscal mismanagement, amplified by the Covid-19 pandemic and further exacerbated by the Beirut port explosion. Lebanese citizens’ trust, as well as the international community's trust in the government, have unfortunately been destroyed. Consequently, Lebanon's sole option is to rebuild confidence in the government and public institutions by implementing economic reforms and to seek an IMF program to pave the way for additional financing from other international sources. The most important confidence-building step is a clear financial and economic plan that has the support of all key stakeholders. This article presents a road map for a reforms-driven, export-led growth strategy for Lebanon. Ultimately, the goal is to jump-start the economy and put it on a path of sustainable, inclusive, and equitable economic growth. Such growth should be grounded in a small, open-economy model and driven by low tariffs, a flexible exchange rate regime, and a dynamic export sector built on competitive and comparative advantages. This plan partially builds on proposals and recommendations provided by previous economic plans and policy notes.     

Legitimacy and post-conflict state-building: the undervalued role of performance legitimacy

Legitimacy is essential to state-building after conflict. Yet, the prescribed path to gaining legitimacy is often a narrow one that borrows heavily from the experiences of Western states. Elections are prescribed as an essential first step on the logic that this means gaining process legitimacy can rebuild a social contract between citizens and the state, a social contract that is rooted in democratic norms and values. This article proposes an alternative path, one that emphasises the critical role of performance legitimacy and its non-exclusive nature. Performance legitimacy is granted when citizens perceive that some or all of their basic needs are being met. The article offers a new analytical framework for understanding a state’s potential source of performance legitimacy, how non-state actors may vie with the state to seize this form of legitimacy, and what consequences this has for processes of state institution-building after conflict. In this respect, this article seeks to reorient theory and practice to a broader view of legitimacy and its critical role in post-conflict state-building.     

Identity,Ideology, and Information: The Sources of Iraqi Public Support for the Islamic State

ABSTRACT

This article explores the amount and sources of support for the Islamic State among Iraqis. We argue that, in addition to shared identity and ideology, a neglected factor in debates about support for Islamist militancy is the messaging and information that individuals receive about a given group. We test these arguments using regression analysis on public opinion data collected in Iraq in April 2015. The analyses largely support our contentions, showing that exposure to news coverage of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant substantially reduces support for the group, even among alienated Sunnis or ideological Islamists.     

Policy space under a constraining combination – open economies,austerity and small island states

Small island developing states (SIDS) face significant economic, social and environmental challenges. Current mainstream approaches to SIDS recognise these limitations and thus promote increased economic integration into the international economy to provide the governments with resources and power to counter the effects of these challenges. Yet these remedies have so far led to high levels of deficits and high levels of indebtedness, as well as high levels of vulnerability and dependence on key sectors that offer very income- and economically sensitive products and services. In addition, and in assessing the experience of Caribbean SIDS, these remedies have led to diminishing government policy space. This has in turn contributed to the lack of real innovation in the way Caribbean SIDS interact with the volatile international market. While much has been written about the economic impact of open markets and the inherent weaknesses within SIDS, the analysis herein allows for the development of a more comprehensive assessment of the implications for the SIDS’ policy space as well as their ability to regain it and develop innovative approaches that avoid uniquely reactionary measures to the current international economy and its gyrations.