Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time series. Controversies about cycles, however, tend to revolve around an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address: the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time series. This has led to two main consequences. On the one hand, proponents of cyclical theories have often dismissed established statistical techniques. On the other hand, proponents of established techniques have dismissed the possibility of cycles without fixed periodicity. Wavelets allow the detection of transient and coexisting cycles and structural breaks in periodicity. In this article, we present the tools of wavelet analysis and apply them to the study of two lingering puzzles in the political science literature: the existence of cycles in election returns in the United States and in the severity of major power wars.     

The Effects of Belief in a Just World and Victim's Innocence on Secondary Victimization,Judgements of Justice and Deservingness

Several studies have shown that victims judged to be innocent are more liked and helped by observers than victims judged to be noninnocent. Nevertheless, objectively innocent victims are very often secondarily victimized (blamed, devalued, avoided, or have their suffering minimized), and judged as deserving or as being in a just situation. An impressive amount of literature shows that high believers in a just world victimize the victims more than low believers, judge them as more deserving and think they are in a fairer situation. But the evaluation of the joint impact of the innocence of the victim and of the observers' BJW (belief in a just world) on the observers' reactions to the victim has been left undone. This study aims to throw some light on this subject. An experimental study was conducted using a 2 BJW (high; low) by 2 victim's innocence (innocent; noninnocent) between-subjects design. No interaction effects were found, but the forms of secondary victimization, as well as the judgements of justice and deservingness, were more positively correlated in the condition where the threat to BJW is higher.     

The Impact of Private Precautions on Home Burglary and Robbery in Brazil

Objectives

This study evaluates the effects of precaution technologies (i.e., window bars, extra locks, alarms and electric fences, CCTV, private security, dogs and combinations of these tools) on household burglary and robbery in Brazil.

Methods

Using a sample of 121,042 unique households from the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey for 2009, this study estimates a Recursive Bivariate Probit to obtain the average treatment effect of these precaution technologies in the likelihood of home burglary and robbery victimization.

Results

This study demonstrates that technology does not reduce home burglaries, but certain combinations of technologies may reduce home robberies. The combination of electric fences and alarms with private security reduces the likelihood of home robbery by 9.5 %, and when combined with a dog, these technologies reduce the likelihood of home robbery by 86 %.

Conclusions

No precaution technology is able to prevent crimes when employed independently. Occupancy combined with a set of technologies can reduce the expected victimization in crimes against property.

     

Increasing knowledge of food deserts in Brazil: The contributions of an interactive and digital mosaic produced in the context of an integrated education for sustainability program

As efforts to end hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition evolve within the context of United Nations' Global Compact and Sustainable Development Goals; such problems remain far from being solved due, in part, to their complex nature. Brazil exemplifies such multifaceted scenario as the country has left the “hunger map” in 2014 but now faces another issue: The quality of the food available to its population. Physical, social, economic, cultural, and political factors have impacted the Brazilian food environment, shaping new eating habits such as the replacement of traditional local food for processed foods. Within this context, educational institutions may play an important role in spreading knowledge about major social challenges such as this and their interdependent causes. This paper presents the case study of a project conducted by business and public administration students in a discipline called Integrated Education for Sustainability (FIS), offered to undergraduate students at one of Brazil's most important management schools. In 2017, the project worked on the topic of Food Deserts, challenging the students to develop a digital and interactive mosaic that uncovers the situation of the food deserts in São Paulo. Data were collected from participant observation, field trips, events, and interviews conducted in class with 18 professionals working on several areas related to the topic. The article provides insights into (a) the importance of education to tackle the sustainability challenges, (b) lessons learned from the 14th edition of FIS course, and (c) the several barriers to food access in the city of São Paulo.     

Justice in Our World and in that of Others: Belief in a Just World and Reactions to Victims

Framed by the Belief in a Just World theory (BJW; Lerner, M. J. (1980). Belief in a just world: A fundamental delusion. New York: Plenum Publishing Corporation), this article presents two studies that analyze people’s reactions to the suffering of victims belonging to an ingroup and an outgroup. In Study 1, participants viewed a videotaped film containing the victimization story. The victim was presented as a non-categorized, ingroup or outgroup (Gypsy) victim. Threat to BJW was measured using the modified Stroop task developed by Hafer (J Pers Soc Psychol 79:165–173, 2000). In the second study, a non-victimization story was introduced and a 2 (victim, non-victim) × 2 (ingroup, outgroup) between-subjects design was used. Both studies show that the ingroup victim is more threatening to the BJW than the outgroup victim. The expected secondary victimization of the ingroup victim was only obtained in the second study when a non-obtrusive derogation measure was used.