Quantitative models in crime control

In this study we propose several mathematical models for describing the behavior of crime-related systems. In the first part is presented a simple model for describing and measuring crime systems with recidivism. This model may be used in estimating the quantitative effects of alternative policies on crime rates. An important factor not recognized by the model is deterrence. One derivative of the mathematical analyses is a proposed method for measuring the relative severity of sentencing in a given system. The second part of the paper deals with the criminal population as a whole, trying to bring into account the non-stationary behavior of the system. This study should be regarded as a preliminary attempt to develop elementary mathematical models fitting crime systems. Some of the assumptions do not have substantial direct support by data.     

泰国北部各民族中的儒教传统

生活在泰国北部山地的泰族及其他少数民族 ,深受中国汉族的儒家信仰及传统观念的影响 ,特别是在“礼仪”、“尊卑”、“举止”上 ,都严格遵循儒家的规矩。同时 ,也用儒家的伦理道德来处理民族之间的关系。     

Stirred,Shaken, or Blended

Abstract

Research documents the variation in levels of offending and the official response to boys' and girls' misbehavior (see Chesney-Lind & Sheldon 2004 for a nice summary of this work). Our research questions develop from this literature. We first expect differences in girls and boys at intake to a residential program for low-to-medium risk offenders, and then we also expect differences in official responses to girls and boys during their aftercare experience. Our findings confirm the literature—girls and boys differ in seriousness of committing offenses. Additionally, girls and boys are treated differently during their time in juvenile justice programming. For example, girls are monitored more closely than boys and receive less serious penalties for similar levels of rule violations. We find no difference between boys and girls in their odds of receiving a serious sanction. While traditional theoretical attempts to explain girls' misbehavior are often described with the expression “add women and stir,” our findings suggest that both behavior of and official response to boys' and girls' activities show that girls are not simply stirred into the male mix but are responded to differently than boys and in ways that illustrate conventional gender socialization.     

Turnout in gubernatorial and senatorial primary and general elections in the South, 1922–90: A rational choice model of the effects of short-run and long-run electoral competition on relative turnout

Using data on non-presidential-year elections for governor and U.S. Senators in eight southern states over the period 1922– 1990, we provide a rational-choice-inspired model of the factors that should be expected to affect the relative levels of turnout in primaries as compared to general elections. Both V.O. Key and Anthony Downs have argued that voters will be more likely to participate in the elections in which they can most expect to be decisive. V.O. Key (1949) proposed that when general elections are usually lop-sided because of one-party dominance of a state's politics the primary of the dominant party of the state should have a higher turnout than the general election. Downs argued that turnout should be higher in competitive elections. Our modelling combines these ideas. We use as our dependent variable the ratio of primary to general election turnout in each year. We posit that this ratio will increase (1) the greater the degree of within-party competition in the primary (especially that within the dominant party of a state, if there is one), and (2) the weaker the degree of between party competition in the general election. In addition to election-specific effects, we also posit long-run effects, such that the ratio for the offices of governor and U.S. Senator will be affected not merely by the degrees of competition within and between parties specific to any given election, but also by the long-run trends in party competition. This hypothesis leads us to expect that, (3) in the South, with the rise of the Republican party, the ratio of primary to general election turnout should decline over time. All of our expectations about the links between turnout and competition are strongly supported. We argue that rational choice models of turnout perform quite well when we view them in a comparative statics perspective, rather than using them to make predictions about who will and who will not vote in any given election.     

Promoting business in Africa: How Nepad can help

The formation of the Nepad Business Group has provided a platform for South African business to use its skills to promote and develop business on the continent.     

Guidelines for Brief Focused Assessment: AFCC Task Force on Brief Focused Assessments.

The Association of Family and Conciliations Courts (AFCC) Task on Brief Focused Assessment was convened in 2007 to study the issues inherent in the use of brief focused assessment models in family courts. The resultant “Guidelines for Brief Focused Assessment” were approved by the AFCC Board of Directors in 2009 and are presented here to prompt discussion and further dialogue about this clearly needed practice.

Key Points for the Family Court Community
• Issue‐specific assessments are increasingly requested by family court judges
• Practice guidelines for clinicians conducting brief focused assessments (BFAs)
• Types of issues/questions appropriate for BFAs
• Advantages and pitfalls of BFAs
• Comparison of BFAs and comprehensive child custody evaluations