Determinants of regime type in newly independent states

Abstract.  Since 1945, newly independent states have differed from longer lived states in their greater risk of violent conflict and more challenging environment for democratisation. The authors of this article theorise that certain economic, demographic, violence-related and external factors should affect the regime type (level of democracy versus autocracy) in newly independent states. Examining exclusively newly independent states that have undergone major political transitions allows one to determine factors favouring democracy over autocracy under such volatile circumstances. The authors test several hypotheses, using cross-sectional and cross-sectional time-series analyses, and find that economic development elevates the level of democracy in new states. Cultural heterogeneity has no effect, but external factors play an important role. Genocide and politicide reduce democracy, while civil wars have the opposite effect. These findings prove robust to alternative measurements of the dependent variable and alternative model specifications.     

ORGANIZATIONAL REDUNDANCY? A CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF THE GEAR PROJECT

'Area approaches' have become a new conventional wisdom for dealing with urban deprivation. Such thinking is evident in Michael Heseltine's Liverpool 'initiative'. This article contributes to an emerging critique of such approaches, by highlighting some political and organizational problems rather than stressing their incipient economic difficulties. Arguably the biggest anti-deprivation project in Western Europe, the Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal scheme (GEAR) is taken as a case study. Official claims of success are juxtaposed against an alternative perspective outlining possible weaknesses and dilemmas. Critical analysis leads to the conclusion that the GEAR constellation of organizations may be best regarded as a mutually non-effective organizational set. The persistence of such an institution, while serving short-term political and administrative needs, may unwittingly produce longer-term negative political and social consequences. The authors argue that if such problems are to be avoided in the future, the political and organizational drawbacks of this type of initiative must be appreciated.