A LOG‐MULTIPLICATIVE ASSOCIATION MODEL FOR ALLOCATING HOMICIDES WITH UNKNOWN VICTIM‐OFFENDER RELATIONSHIPS*

This research note critically evaluates conventional methods for allocating homicides with an unknown victim/offender relationship to meaningful categories, and it proposes an alternative approach. We argue that conventional methods are based on a problematic assumption, namely, that the missing data mechanism is “ignorable.” As an alternative to these methods, we propose an imputation algorithm derived from a log‐multiplicative model that does not require this assumption. We apply this technique to estimate levels of homicides disaggregated by victim/offender relationship using the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data for 1996 and 1997, and we compare the resulting estimates with those obtained from the application of conventional procedures. Our results yield a larger proportion of stranger homicides than are obtained from the conventional methods.     

PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM IN DUTCH HIGHER EDUCATION: THE ORGANIZATIONAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE UNIVERSITY

During the past few decades traditional state‐centred governing arrangements have been critiqued and replaced by alternative modes of governance. Higher education is one of the public sectors where such shifts in governance have been seen. As a consequence of the reshuffling of authority and responsibilities across the different levels in Dutch higher education, universities as organizations have become important foci of attention in the system’s coordination. The main question addressed in this article is to what extent we can speak of an organizational transformation of Dutch universities. Based on conceptual ideas from researchers such as Greenwood and Hinings (1996), Ferlie et al. (1996) , and Brunsson and Sahlin‐Andersson (2000) , we use a framework that focuses attention on the concepts of the construction of identity, hierarchy and rationality to systematically analyse the various aspects of transformations of professional organizations.     

Wholesaling in Electricity: Inching Along

This article discusses the incremental but increasingly assertive efforts by federal policy makers toward encouraging deregulation of the electric utility industry. Focusing on the efforts of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), we conclude that the federal government is involved in a sort of two‐sided experiment. On the one hand, efforts to deregulate the electric power industry attempt to establish a competitive market pose the question: Can government provide rational guidance in the formation of markets in a complex industry? On the other hand, it asks whether the democratic process can permit agencies such as FERC to impose and implement an economically rational design on a self‐interested pubic that is mostly interested in cheap, reliable power. In a sense, FERC is auditioning for a new role for regulatory agencies—as designers and overseers of markets. This is a dramatic shift from the traditional role of “regulator as policeman.” Whether regulators are up to the task remains to be seen.     

THE MWANZA TRIAL AS A SEARCH FOR A USABLE MALAWIAN POLITICAL PAST

The main thesis of this papier is that nations need memoriesand that there is in many contemporary African states a needto create a memory of the period between independence and thereintroduction of multipartyism. That process often takes theform of inquests into human rights abuses which can result intrials. The trial in Malawi of six people—including theformer president Kamuzu Banda and his most loyal follower J.Z.U.Tembo—on the accusation of conspiring to murder four politiciansin 1983 and to destroy relevant evidence is an example. Thisarticle discusses how the reactions of the present ruling party(UDF) and government and the previous ruling party (MCP) andtheir leadership to this trial differ. The trial is seen asa struggle about the interpretation of the past which is putin the context of the actual events in 1983 as these came outin the trial. The fundamental question which arose is whetherresponsibility for whatever happened in Malawi in that periodcan squarely be put in the hands of a trimuvirate which wasin total control of what happened or whether decision making—includingthose concerning human rights abuses—was much more diffusedthroughout society. The first version of events lacks evidenceto substantiate it. The result of the trial was therefore anacquittal which was held up in an appeal by the state. The secondversion portrays Kamuzu Banda as a leader who could be deceivedby his environment, which is at variance with the way many Malawians,not exclusively MCP supporters, saw his role.     

金融业是“社会经济”发展的“主导力量”

我国参加“WTO”以后 ,对我国冲击最大的应是金融业。我国金融业市场化程度最低 ,但它又在经济社会发展中作用最大。金融业有自身发展的规律 ,它应突破“存、贷、汇”的限制 ,走上以资本经营为主体的更大市场。金融市场的发展在客观上给社会更多的选择余地 ,分散了金融风险。金融风险是市场风险的一种 ,风险并不等于是危机。金融危机大体上有三种类型 :一是支付危机 ,二是股市危机 ,三是汇市危机。只要经济平稳发展 ,政策对头 ,危机一般都可避免。资本市场不宜过早开放 ,应以监管能力的配套为前提