Veto Players and Civil War Duration

Civil wars show a remarkable variation in how long they last. Some end within days; others continue for decades. What explains the extreme intractability of some wars while others are resolved quickly? This article argues that conflicts with multiple actors who must approve a settlement (veto players) are longer because there are fewer acceptable agreements, information asymmetries are more acute, and shifting alliances and incentives to hold out make negotiation more difficult. This veto player approach to explaining variation in civil war duration is tested using a new dataset containing monthly data on all parties to each civil war begun since World War II. The statistical analysis shows a strong correlation between the number of veto players and the duration of civil war.     

Legislative Transparency and Credit Risk

Open governance requirements are designed to improve accountability, which implies that transparent governments are more trustworthy stewards of their publicly invested power. However, transparency may also reduce institutional effectiveness and inhibit political compromise, diminishing the capacity to manage resources responsibly. We assess empirical support for these competing perspectives in the context of American state legislatures, many of which have become exempt from state sunshine laws in recent decades. We leverage variation in the timing of these legislative exemptions to identify the effect of removing transparency in a crucial governing institution on investors’ risk perceptions of states’ general obligation bonds. Our analysis of these data during the period 1995–2010 suggests that removing legislative transparency reduces state credit risk. We conclude that while openness in government may be normatively desirable, shielding legislative proceedings from public view may actually be better for states’ debt repayment capacity, improving their overall fiscal health.     

The nonarrival of black freedom (c. 12.6.84)

This article seeks to mark the twentieth anniversary of the publication of Saidiya V. Hartman’s Scenes of Subjection: Terror, Slavery, and Self-Making in Nineteenth-Century America through a series of meditations on questions of time, embodied performance, the political concept of emancipation, and Oliver L. Jackson’s painting, Untitled 12.6.84, which graces the cover of this seminal work. This effort to recall Hartman’s argument regarding the nonevent of emancipation moves in the service of developing an understanding of the nonarrival of black freedom as a conceptual frame for addressing the recursive and untimely dimensions of black self-making. Ultimately, this article argues that Scenes of Subjection allows us to glimpse the making of worlds within the historical archive that fall outside of the normative horizons and expectations of political emancipation. Neither durable nor everlasting, neither verifiable nor guaranteed, such worlds take shape and dissolve within the mysterious rapport between the “could be” and the “not yet” and leave traces on the broken flesh of the black body.     

Risk compensation and the effectiveness of safety belt use laws: a case study of New Jersey

This paper investigates the effectiveness of New Jersey's mandatory belt use law (MUL) by testing specifically for: (1) a safety effect, and (2) a risk-compensation effect that could offset (in part) any safety impact. The main findings are that injury severity declined significantly in the 22 months following implementation of the MUL; but that accident frequency increased significantly. The increase in accidents may be explained only partially by increased driving mileage. These findings suggest that the real safety effect of the law may have been diluted by risk-compensating behavior.This paper is based on a study conducted for the New Jersey Office of Highway Traffic Safety by the Rutgers University Bureau of Economic Research. We are grateful to William Ascher and two referees for useful comments.     

Correlates of romantic attachment: A path analysis study

A path-analytic study was undertaken to investigate the proposed relationship between physical attractiveness, need for intimacy, self-disclosure, thought about one's dating partner, and reported romantic love. Extrapolations from theories by Murstein (1971) and I. Reiss (1960), and conclusions from other empirical work, provided the background for the assessment of the relationship between the four proposed predictive factors and the development of romantic affect. During the winter of 1977-78 656 college students responded to a survey assessing each of the four predictors and romantic love. Path structures were initially estimated for male and female subsamples. Since few significant sex differences were noted, coefficients were compared for groups of students involved in dating relationships of varying durations. All four predictors were significantly associated with the subjects' self-reported romantic affect toward their dating partner. In all analyses, thinking about one's partner was found to be the most potent predictor. The data suggest the earlier work by Murstein and Reiss offer both testable and productive theoretical foundations for the study of romantic involvement. However, in future work it would be beneficial to (a) search for more numerous and powerful antecedents to romantic love; (b) delineate the specific role of cognitive processes in influencing romantic attachment; (c) compare relationships on criteria other than months of involvement; and (d) seek to examine love from the perspectives of both individuals involved in the dyadic relationship.Received her Ph.D. from the Pennsylvania State UniversityReceived his Ph.D. from The Pennsylvania State University.     

What to Do When Stakeholders Matter: The Case of Problem Formulation for the African American Men Project of Hennepin County, Minnesota

We propose a series of stakeholder analyses designed to help organizations—especially governments—think and act strategically during the process of problem formulation in order to advance the common good. Specifically, we argue that at least five sets of analyses are necessary, including the creation of (1) a power versus interest grid; (2) a stakeholder influence diagram; (3) bases of power–directions of interest diagrams; (4) a map for finding the common good and structuring a winning argument; and (5) diagrams indicating how to tap individual stakeholder interests to pursue the common good. What the analyses do is help to transform a seemingly "wicked problem"—for example, how to produce better outcomes for African American men aged 18–30—into something more tractable, and therefore amenable to collective action. In other words, stakeholder analysis can be used to link political rationality with technical rationality so that support can be mobilized for substantive progress.     

Theory and the Public Administration Student/Practitioner

The modern theory that dominates our classrooms and training programs meets the needs of staff-oriented practitioners and public administration students. Line managers, present and future, are less well served by our offerings. Open systems and constructed reality describe both postmodern theory and the world faced by the line manager. Incorporating the learning principles imbedded in postmodernism would add diversity and strength to our MPA curricula.