Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility

Abstract.  This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters' assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.     

Girl Power: Stipend Programs and the Education of Younger Siblings

We examine the effects of the schooling of girls on the education of their younger siblings. To examine the causal effect of the education of older children on their younger siblings, we use the introduction of a gender-targeted conditional cash transfer program – the Female Secondary School Stipend Program (FSSSP) in Bangladesh. We find that an additional year of schooling of older siblings increases schooling of their younger siblings by 0.13 years. The stipend program accounts for about a 10 per cent increase in the schooling of younger siblings. The results suggest that stipend programs can bring both short- and long-term gains, not only via direct benefits to affected children, but also via indirect benefits to their siblings.     

Epistemic emotions in prosecutorial decision making

The article examines epistemic emotions as part of the emotive-cognitive processes of prosecutors’ knowledge seeking and decision making in preliminary investigation and court proceedings. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, interviews, and shadowing of prosecutors in Sweden, we show how emotions motivate and orient prosecutors’ inquiries and the fundamental role of the ‘certainty–doubt spiral’ for ‘doing objectivity’. In conclusion, we discuss the centrality of emotions for conscientious and well-considered decisions in legal work. The study contributes to the field of law and emotion by exploring the epistemic quality of emotions, notably the certainty–doubt spiral, in legal work.     

Participation in social forestry re-examined: a case-study from Bangladesh

Bangladesh has enthusiastically launched social forestry projects that make grandiose promises of seeking local community involvement and participation in the management of forest resources. This study examines the functioning of the Chandra Agroforestry Research and Demonstration Project to evaluate the actual extent and nature of popular participation it entails. After discussing the project and its locale, the methodology of the study is described as an analysis of qualitative and quantitative data collected in the period February-August 1994. The theoretical framework was based on a modified version of Zaman's framework that uses prevalence and opportunity as the indicators of participation. Analysis of prevalence indicators reveals that professional foresters make all major decisions for the project without consulting the farmers involved. The government also has sole responsibility for monitoring and evaluating the project, and the farmers are skeptical that the government will allow them to profit from the benefits arising from the project. Analysis of opportunity indicators shows that the project is not decentralized, cooperative and collaborative linkages have not been made, project flexibility has been sacrificed to bureaucracy, and the incentives promised to the farmers have not materialized. It is concluded that the participation of local residents in the Chandra project has been insignificant but that the project has succeeded in reducing 1) the historical distrust and conflict between forestry officials and local farmers, 2) encroachment on government lands, and 3) the rate of deforestation. In addition, the project has given participating farmers a sense of security.     

From Car Wash to Bolsonaro: Law and Lawyers in Brazil's Illiberal Turn (2014–2018)

Law and lawyers tend to be seen as either preferential victims of or key counterforces to rising illiberalism. Brazil offers a good testbed for these claims. Brazilian democracy has deteriorated considerably, as epitomized by the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. Yet, since 2014, law and lawyers have become ever more central to Brazil's field of state power. As the anti-corruption initiative Car Wash (Lava Jato) gained momentum, Brazilian judges and prosecutors were celebrated, locally and globally, as champions of transparency, accountability, and ‘the rule of law’. Following a closer look at Car Wash, this article questions such idealization of law and lawyers. Drawing on research on press interviews and statements by Car Wash legal officers, I find that, throughout the case, they produced a ‘political grammar’ that is closer to illiberalism than many would predict. Based on recent developments in the sociology of fields, I argue that the production of these grammars yields societal effects that deserve scholarly and civic attention.     

鸡毒支原体鸡滑液囊支原体和副鸡禽杆菌三重PCR检测方法的建立

鸡毒支原体(MG)、鸡滑液囊支原体(MS)、副鸡禽杆菌(APG)三重PCR诊断对于鸡呼吸道疾病的鉴别诊断和防控有着重要意义。本次试验首先对三重PCR反应条件进行优化,之后对多种病原的DNA进行扩增以确定本方法的特异性,调整MG、MS和APG的DNA浓度以确定本方法的敏感性。结果显示,利用优化后的反应条件,本试验建立的诊断方法能够同时扩增出长度为453 bp(MG)、328 bp(MS)和241 bp(APG)的特异性片段,而大肠杆菌、鸡白痢沙门菌、禽多杀性巴氏杆菌、金黄色葡萄球菌和阴性对照样品在检测时则无条带产生。对三种病原的混合DNA进行10倍梯度稀释,确定MG、MS和APG的最低检出量为5×10^-3ng/μL。对37份临床样品的检测结果表明,三重PCR的检出率和单重PCR的检测结果一致,且可同时检测出两种或三种病原同时感染。上述结果表明,本试验建立的MG、MS和APG三重PCR诊断方法具有良好的特异性、较高的灵敏性,可用于鸡呼吸道病的诊断和防控。