Negotiating the review process: a CIA guide to intelligence analysis, 1970

The literature on intelligence analysis contains many references to the ‘review process’, the mechanism by which analysts’ drafts are converted into corporate products. Analysts whose drafts consistently navigate the process quickly and smoothly are regarded as star performers. Divining the practical meaning of organizational definitions of ‘good’ analysis and the personal preferences of specific senior reviewers is not easy, however. Analysts occasionally commit their understanding of reviewers’ stylistic preferences to paper, effectively providing style guides to help others. This essay presents and explains the development and implications of one such guide, which was designed to help analysts in CIA’s Office of Strategic Research in the early 1970s.     

Managers of Analysts: The Other Half of Intelligence Analysis

The literature on intelligence analysis has a glaring hole: assessment of the management of analysts and their work. This gap is striking because managers influence all aspects of analysis and share responsibility with analysts for analytic successes and failures. While many managers ably recruit, train, mentor, and manage their analysts, they also are responsible for pathologies that negatively affect analysis and are often incorrectly attributed to analysts. Accurate understanding of the roles and influence of managers should change scholars’ views of the processes of analysis and better balance attention on analysts and managers.     

Panel on the Economic and Political Consequences of Chernobyl'

This article summarizes a discussion by a panel of leading experts on Soviet energy analyzing the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear plant in the Ukraine on April 26, 1986.

The near-term economic costs associated with clean-up, relocation, and compensating for losses to electricity supplies are significant but manageable. The longer-term effects will focus on likely modifications in Soviet strategies for the nuclear industry, which may shift emphasis back towards conventional fuels and conservation.

The political consequences were managed fairly well by the leadership. Consistent with Secretary Gorbachev's policy of glasnost' (openness) more information has been available on this event than was the case in previous analogous situations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

Colombia's FARC: A Portrait of Insurgent Intelligence

Abstract

The literature on intelligence little describes or comparatively analyzes the intelligence services of insurgent groups. This article partially fills the gap by assessing the intelligence activities of FARC – the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. FARC intelligence displays similarities to, as well as sharp differences from, the intelligence activities of other insurgent groups and established states. Like FARC as a whole, FARC intelligence is decentralized. Its strength is its focus on tactical military intelligence. Collection on strategic political issues, analysis, and counterintelligence are relatively weak. FARC's intelligence weaknesses limit its prospects for strategic success and its intelligence-related vulnerabilities offer the Colombian government opportunities to exploit.     

“‘I have done it and I have got to die’: Coroners' inquests of abortion deaths in Rhode Island, 1876–1938.”

This article offers an analysis of abortion deaths among white working-class women in Providence County based on thirty-three coroners records from 1876 to 1938. Most women were single and in their twenties: they chose abortion either because their lover was married, or they were too ashamed of their premarital sexual activity to confront their parents. Married women, on the other hand, did so primarily due to economic factors, extramarital affairs, or a strong desire for no more children. In seeking abortions, single women depended on lovers while married women relied on sisters or sisters-in-law. In investigating the deaths resulting from these abortions, coroners called husbands, but not lovers, before the inquests and sought out antemortem statements. Yet only 39% of cases had dying declarations: either doctors refused to participate in interrogating women on their death beds, or women refused to identify abortionists. Of the abortion providers identified, 45% were physicians. Working-class status did not prevent these women, and later their families, from securing expensive medical care from doctors. Both inquests and newspaper coverage in Providence County differ from studies by other scholars who find these venues used as mechanisms to embarrass women and warn single women of urban threats, and to target midwives over physicians. The evidence points to analogous handling of doctors and laypeople, and of married and single women. No intimate details of women's lives were exposed and newspapers did not use sensationalized headlines to draw attention to the illegal activity of abortion. Coroner inquests asked questions necessary to investigate death from a criminal activity, not to take a moral stance on female sexuality.     

"The red zone": temporal risk for unwanted sex among college students

The "red zone" usually refers to the first few weeks of the first semester at college, when female students are believed to be at greatest risk for experiencing unwanted sex. We tested this notion using data from a survey study of 207 first-and second-year students (121 women, 84 men) at a small, liberal arts university. Results demonstrated only one significant elevation in incidence rates of first- and second-year women's unwanted sexual experiences (sexual touching, attempted and completed anal, oral, and vaginal sex), between the end of the first month and fall break (mid-October) during the second year at school. Previous research and local information about the relevant behaviors of sorority and fraternity members is discussed in light of these findings to provide heuristic material for further empirical testing. Because risk may involve both temporal and situational factors, systematic collection and dissemination of local data are recommended.