Fraud: The Characteristic Crime of the Twenty-First Century

In the same way that larceny characterized much of twentieth century, fraud will likely characterize the twenty-first century. Larceny remains the most common oi all serious crimes, but fraud may overtake larceny as the crime of choice in the future, because of changes in our ownership, storage, and movement of property. Fraud involves purposely obtaining the property of another through deception, and its popularity as a crime of choice is growing. Entrusting property to the custody oi others, storing property at remote locations, and electronic movement of property are shown to be major changes in the way we treat property and increase opportunities for theft. The connection between fraud and many of the serious crimes of the twenty-first century are shown in the facts of recent cases. The motivation of thefl behind many frauds is also shown to be used to fund larger criminal objectives, such as illegal immigration and terrorism. The points of view expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Dr. Albanese is chief of the International Center at NIJ on leave from his position as professor of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.     

A spatial analysis of candidate competition in dual member districts: The 1989 Chilean senatorial elections

This study uses empirical spatial theory to evaluate candidate and voter behavior in senate elections contested during the 1989 Chilean general election. The study evaluates whether senatorial candidates competing in dual member districts under Chilean d'Hondt locate near the periphery or interior of the electoral space. Spatial analyses demonstrate the Chilean senatorial electoral system is characterized by centrifugal forces. In particular, candidates of the right locate on the periphery of the space and face few incentives to pursue moderate electoral strategies. The study also characterizes bases of party and candidate support and the underlying dimensions of political competition. Spatial analysis reveals both change and continuity in the pre- and post-authoritarian electoral universes.     

Directional and proximity models of voter choice in recent US presidential elections

This note evaluates relative ability of the proximity and recently proposed directional variants of the spatial model of voter choice to account for candidate evaluations in US presidential elections contested between 1980 and 1992. I do this by estimating a statistical model that represents voter preference for a candidate as a weighted average of proximity and directional components. The analysis corroborates previous studies supporting the directional model, but illustrate that these results are sensitive to statistical specification. Alternative methodological specifications favor a mixed directional-proximity model and the traditional distance representation.     

The Dynamics of Political Attention: Public Opinion and the Queen's Speech in the United Kingdom

This article represents the effect of public opinion on government attention in the form of an error-correction model where public opinion and policymaking attention coexist in a long-run equilibrium state that is subject to short-run corrections. The coexistence of policy-opinion responsiveness and punctuations in political attention is attributed to differences in theoretical conceptions of negative and positive feedback, differences in the use of time series and distributional methods, and differences in empirical responsiveness of government to public attention relative to responsiveness to public preferences. This analysis considers time-series data for the United Kingdom over the period between 1960 and 2001 on the content of the executive and legislative agenda presented at the start of each parliamentary session in the Queen's Speech coded according to the policy content framework of the U.S. Policy Agendas Project and a reconstituted public opinion dataset on Gallup's "most important problem" question. The results show short-run responsiveness of government attention to public opinion for macroeconomics, health, and labor and employment topics and long-run responsiveness for macroeconomics, health, labor and employment, education, law and order, housing, and defense .