Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

Democracy,Power and Indigeneity

This article identifies a theoretical nexus between indigeneity and liberal democracy in three post‐colonial contexts. Like democracy, the politics of indigeneity asks questions and makes assumptions about where power ought to lie and how it ought to be shared in relation to political inclusion and national sovereignty. The interaction of indigeneity with democracy highlights the limitations of liberal theory as well as the opportunities it provides to meet indigenous claims and conceptions of justice. Exploring the ideological tensions and commonalities between democracy and indigeneity allows a contrast, in comparative context, of the proposition that in Fiji, for example, democracy is “a foreign flower” unsuited to the local environment with the argument that liberal representative democracy can, in fact, mediate power in favour of an inclusive national polity.     

The migration of fragments of glass from the pockets to the surfaces of clothing

During the last decade or so there has been some discussion in the forensic community in the United Kingdom concerning whether it is necessary to search the pockets for glass particles in garments attributed to suspects arrested for glass breaking crimes. The removal of this practice would help expedite the searching and recovery process since examining only the surfaces of clothing would reduce the cost of recovering glass evidence. However, it is believed by many scientists that some glass fragments originally acquired in pockets can migrate to the surfaces of clothing prior to examination by the forensic scientist. As glass fragments have been encountered in the pockets of garments during examinations of casework items in the LGC Laboratories, the implications of this change in practice needs to be assessed. Hence, the aim of this study was to investigate this possibility that fragments of glass migrate from a pocket of a garment to its surfaces during police and laboratory handling after a person is suspected of breaking glass during an offence. If this occurs to a significant extent then it could affect the evaluation of the glass evidence when using a Bayesian approach. Sixty fragments of glass were seeded into a pocket of a fleece jacket and a pair of denim jeans. Three experiments were performed; one examined a searching, recovery and blanking procedure, another examined the pre-laboratory 'handling' process of an item in an evidence bag, and the third experiment looked at the removal of an object from a pocket laden with glass and subsequent removal and packaging of the garment. Up to two (3.3%) fragments were recovered from the surfaces of the fleece jacket and the denim jeans via the searching, recovery and blanking procedure. Similar numbers were also recovered from the insides of the evidence bags. Up to four (6.7%) fragments were recovered from the surface of the fleece jacket and up to five (8.3%) fragments were recovered from the surface of the denim jeans after pre-laboratory 'handling'. Again similar numbers were recovered from the insides of the evidence bags. Comparable numbers to those from searching/recovery experiments were observed when garments were removed after taking an object from a pocket. In addition, up to two (3.3%) fragments were recovered from the object (a mobile phone). The findings show that some migration can occur particularly in the second experiment and therefore modification of the evaluation strategy may be required.     

The cost of hospital care in the year before and after parasuicide

This study, based in Ireland in the Limerick centre of the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study of Parasuicide, tests the hypothesis that the uptake of hospital services increases significantly following an act of parasuicide. To investigate this, the costs of hospital attendance in the year before and in the year after an act of parasuicide are measured and compared. The sample is comprised of the first 100 individuals who attended an acute general hospital following an act of parasuicide after July 1, 1995. Using a computerized patient record system, every hospital attendance is identified, for each individual, in the 12 months before and after the parasuicide act. This includes every visit to the Emergency Room as well as both general and psychiatric inpatient admissions and outpatient attendances. There was a 50% increase in the uptake of hospital services--32% of the sample attended hospital in the year before compared with 48% in the year after. The total yearly costs for the 100 patients almost doubled from IR 53,652 Pounds (Euro 68,138) to IR 104,454 Pounds (Euro 132,657). Generalizing to the 539 individuals who engaged in parasuicide in the Limerick catchment area, total costs increased from IR 289,184 Pounds (Euro 367,264) to IR 563,007 Pounds (Euro 715,019). This study is an initial step toward the more complex task of estimating to what extent the increased uptake of hospital services is due to the consequences of parasuicide and how much is due to other aspects of the patient's health.