Dyadic effects of democratization on international disputes

I explore the dyadic, as opposed to monadic, effect of democratizationon war. Using a simple repeated game of interstate interaction,I show that, as a state shifts towards democracy, its citizensaquire more opportunities and become more willing to removethose leaders that they expect will reduce their welfare. Rationalleaders anticipate this consequence, and their incentives tomaintain cooperative relationships with other democracies increaseas their states become democratic. The hypothesis drawn fromthe model predicts that democratization will have a pacifyingeffect in a dyadic relationship between democracies. Empiricaltesting is designed to isolate the dyadic effect from the monadicand to distinguish among competing hypotheses. The predictionsare tested with widely used data on political institutions andmilitarized interstate disputes. The result shows that democratizationindeed reduces the likelihood of waging war. However, this pacifyingeffect is largely attributed to the dyadic effect with a democraticopponent; the risk of war remains unchanged when facing a non-democraticopponent.     

Positive Developmental Changes after Transition to High School: Is Retrospective Growth Correlated with Measured Changes in Current Status of Personal Growth?

The transition to high school is generally considered as a stressful turning point in adolescent development, but some students experience personal growth (i.e., positive developmental changes) through that experience. It is important to examine the mechanism behind such positive changes to understand various developmental patterns of adolescents during the transition. However, the concept of growth in this research area remains unexplored. Some researchers have questioned whether retrospective, self-reported growth reflects actual positive changes in the perception of personal growth. We elaborated on the concept of growth after high school transition by examining whether retrospective appraisal of personal growth after transition to high school is correlated with measured change in growth. Two hundred and sixty-two Japanese adolescents (aged 14–16 years, 50% girls) participated in surveys right before and right after transition. We assessed five domains of growth, including improved relating to others, identification of new possibilities, increased sense of personal strength, spiritual growth, and greater appreciation of life. The results showed that retrospective assessment of growth and measured change during transition were positively associated, provided the adolescents reported the transition as an important turning point in their lives. Adolescents who experienced salient positive changes across the transition were more likely to engage in intrusive and deliberate rumination and social support than adolescents who reported fewer changes. In summary, retrospective growth covaried with measured change only when adolescents perceived the transition as impactful in their lives.