Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility

Abstract.  This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters' assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.     

Epistemic emotions in prosecutorial decision making

The article examines epistemic emotions as part of the emotive-cognitive processes of prosecutors’ knowledge seeking and decision making in preliminary investigation and court proceedings. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, interviews, and shadowing of prosecutors in Sweden, we show how emotions motivate and orient prosecutors’ inquiries and the fundamental role of the ‘certainty–doubt spiral’ for ‘doing objectivity’. In conclusion, we discuss the centrality of emotions for conscientious and well-considered decisions in legal work. The study contributes to the field of law and emotion by exploring the epistemic quality of emotions, notably the certainty–doubt spiral, in legal work.     

The differential experience of Mozambican refugee women and men

This study examines differences in Mozambicans mens' and womens' experiences of living in refugee camps in Malawi late in 1990. The aim is to identify the differences in impact by gender in assistance policies and programs. In early 1991 there were an estimated 1 million Mozambican refugees in Malawi. This study is based on quantitative and qualitative data collection. The study sample included Chiumbangame and Mwawa in Mangochi District (refugee camps) and Ntcheu (settlements integrated with Malawi's population). Findings indicate that 17% of the 2006-person sample were female-headed households. Men in general had more years of schooling than women. 34% of the women and 47% of men completed at least 1 year of school and 10% of women and 24% of men completed 2 years. At all ages boys were more likely to be enrolled than girls. 4.1% of the 847 persons over 18 years old were receiving some training, but only 1 person had increased household income due to training. Refugee income was nil for women and about 20 cents/day for men. The mean daily income for individuals from female headed households was about half that of income from male headed households. Women were more likely to be working and spent more time in productive work than men. Women worked in household maintenance. Women in income programs gave housework chores to younger females in the household. The income programs were of low quality and products had low marketability. Girls helped with housework from an early age, while boys helped as teenagers. 44.2% of female headed households and 34.9% of members of male headed households reported health problems. This study identifies the ways in which refugee policy worsens gender inequalities in economic production and work burden.     

From Car Wash to Bolsonaro: Law and Lawyers in Brazil's Illiberal Turn (2014–2018)

Law and lawyers tend to be seen as either preferential victims of or key counterforces to rising illiberalism. Brazil offers a good testbed for these claims. Brazilian democracy has deteriorated considerably, as epitomized by the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. Yet, since 2014, law and lawyers have become ever more central to Brazil's field of state power. As the anti-corruption initiative Car Wash (Lava Jato) gained momentum, Brazilian judges and prosecutors were celebrated, locally and globally, as champions of transparency, accountability, and ‘the rule of law’. Following a closer look at Car Wash, this article questions such idealization of law and lawyers. Drawing on research on press interviews and statements by Car Wash legal officers, I find that, throughout the case, they produced a ‘political grammar’ that is closer to illiberalism than many would predict. Based on recent developments in the sociology of fields, I argue that the production of these grammars yields societal effects that deserve scholarly and civic attention.     

鸡毒支原体鸡滑液囊支原体和副鸡禽杆菌三重PCR检测方法的建立

鸡毒支原体(MG)、鸡滑液囊支原体(MS)、副鸡禽杆菌(APG)三重PCR诊断对于鸡呼吸道疾病的鉴别诊断和防控有着重要意义。本次试验首先对三重PCR反应条件进行优化,之后对多种病原的DNA进行扩增以确定本方法的特异性,调整MG、MS和APG的DNA浓度以确定本方法的敏感性。结果显示,利用优化后的反应条件,本试验建立的诊断方法能够同时扩增出长度为453 bp(MG)、328 bp(MS)和241 bp(APG)的特异性片段,而大肠杆菌、鸡白痢沙门菌、禽多杀性巴氏杆菌、金黄色葡萄球菌和阴性对照样品在检测时则无条带产生。对三种病原的混合DNA进行10倍梯度稀释,确定MG、MS和APG的最低检出量为5×10^-3ng/μL。对37份临床样品的检测结果表明,三重PCR的检出率和单重PCR的检测结果一致,且可同时检测出两种或三种病原同时感染。上述结果表明,本试验建立的MG、MS和APG三重PCR诊断方法具有良好的特异性、较高的灵敏性,可用于鸡呼吸道病的诊断和防控。