Job Approval and Senate Election Outcomes In the United States

A growing body of congressional scholarship investigates variation in the incumbent electoral advantage that depends on factors such as competence, political skill, and ideological extremity. This article contributes to this line of work by providing analysis of the relationship between senators' home‐state approval ratings and their electoral fortunes using newly available data from the Job Approval Ratings (JAR) collection. The findings show that senatorial job approval affects retirement, quality‐candidate emergence, campaign spending, and outcomes. The myriad indirect effects suggest that strategic political actors are central to the process by which incumbents are held accountable for the reputations they develop in their constituencies.     

Down to Earth: Race and Substance in the Andes

Abstract — The racial identities of Indians and mestizos in a highland Peruvian region are closely associated with their relative positions to the earth. The agricultural Indians are closer to the earth and the town-dwelling mestizos are further from it. This distinction is maintained and reinforced through the use of material objects in everyday life, especially earthen objects (adobe bricks, clay pots, dirt roads) and to earth-touching objects (shoes, floors). This distinction accords with the relativity and fluidity of racial identities of individuals. The origins of this notion are traced to political and religious ideology in colonial and post-colonial Peru.     

PUBLIC SERVICE USE AND PERCEIVED PERFORMANCE: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE ON THE NATURE OF THE RELATIONSHIP

Citizen surveys often measure service use as well as perceived performance, typically in the form of quality or satisfaction ratings. But little attention has been paid to the relationship between public service use and satisfaction. How do the service ratings or satisfaction judgements of frequent users differ from those of infrequent users? Is the direction of the use‐satisfaction relationship positive or negative? Or perhaps non‐linear? And does the direction or form of the relationship differ across services? Using data from New York, we examine the relationship between use and perceived performance for five services: buses, subways, parks, public libraries, and roads. Interestingly, this relationship often appears curvilinear, with satisfaction initially rising with use, to a point after which it begins to diminish. We offer some substantive interpretations of this pattern, as well as some practical implications for the analysis and understanding of citizen surveys for policy and management purposes.     

Greening Industry Without Enforcement? An Assessment of the World Bank's Pollution Regulation Model for Developing Countries

The best comparative and overview source now available for knowledge about pollution regulation in developing countries is the 2000 World Bank policy research report called Greening Industry . The World Bank finds that there is a new model for pollution regulation in lower- and middle-level income countries that is an alternative to "traditional" command and control regulation. The new model stresses flexible norms and nonstate pressures on regulated enterprises coming from communities and markets. This article presents an investigation into this new model. It finds that the prevalence of weak law enforcement may undermine the new model's potential to control pollution in developing countries. It also contends that social and market pressures only occur under certain circumstances often not found in lower- and middle-level income countries. Therefore, the article concludes that developing countries require smart mixes of various regulatory instruments appropriate in the given state and nonstate regulatory capacities, instead of contrasting state and nonstate regulation.     

TESTING THE TRANSITIVITY OF REPORTED RISK PERCEPTIONS: EVIDENCE OF COHERENT ARBITRARINESS

An often implicit assumption of perceptual deterrence tests is that the elicited values pertaining to arrest risk reflect stable underlying beliefs. But researchers in other disciplines have found that reported expectations are highly susceptible to exogenous factors (e.g., anchors and question ordering), indicating that such values are somewhat arbitrary responses to probabilistic questions. At the same time, reported expectations are coherent within persons, such that respondents rank order them rationally. For deterrence, then, absolute values reported on arrest risks are likely not stable but individuals still rank order specific crimes in meaningful ways. We examine the interpretability of reported arrest risk for three possibilities: 1) Reported risks are stable probabilistic values; 2) reported risks are arbitrary and uninformative for deterrence research; or 3) reported risks display “coherent arbitrariness” with unstable values between individuals but stable rank ordering of crimes within individuals. Through the use of three random experiments of college students, our results indicate that elicited risk perceptions are arbitrary in that they are influenced by the presentation of anchors and question ordering. Nevertheless, the rank ordering of crimes within and across conditions is unaffected by the presentation of anchors, suggesting that reported risks are locally coherent within persons.