RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE OFFENDING FREQUENCY (λ) OF IMPRISONED AND FREE OFFENDERS*

In the public debate over incarceration policy, there is considerable disagreement about what value of individual offending frequency (λ) is appropriate to use in estimating incapacitative effects. This article provides an approach for estimating the mean values of λ for diverse subsets of the total offender population, with particular emphasis on subsets generated by filtering through various stages of the criminal justice system. Sharp differences in offending frequency are displayed between robbery and burglary inmates, across three states, and particularly between resident inmates and free, active offenders. Free offenders average 1 to 3 robberies and 2 to 4 burglaries per year, while resident inmates have λ values 10 to 50 times higher. Differences result from the underlying levels of criminal activity and the sanction Levels that offenders face. A highly heterogeneous distribution of offending frequency in the total population of offenders combines with relatively Low imprisonment levels to lead to substantial selectivity of high-λ offenders among resident inmates and a correspondingly low mean value of λ among those offenders who remain free. These results have important implications for estimating incapacitative effects of an increase in incarceration, since the additional inmates will be drawn from free offenders whose mean λ is at least an order of magnitude Lower than that of the current inmate population.     

Zero to Three: Critical Issues for the Juvenile and Family Court

Infants are the fastest growing population in foster care. Without intervention they are at great risk of poor developmental outcomes. Juvenile and family courts have a unique opportunity to make a positive difference in the lives of the babies in their care. This article outlines six critical issues that impact the development of very young children in the child welfare system and recommends strategies that juvenile and family courts can use to address the needs of this most vulnerable population.     

THE OBSERVER

相似文献   

The Australian Republic Referendum, 1999

The 1999 Australian republic referendum was intended to finalise the nation-building process begun in the mid-nineteenth century and to exploit growing national consciousness in the wake of post-World War II cosmopolitan immigration and the 1988 bicentenary. Despite strong republican support recorded by opinion polls and a broadly favourable media climate the proposal to institute a republic was defeated. The article summarises the campaign and explores some of the reasons that have been advanced, including the part played by the prime minister, for its outcome; it concludes that 'the model' might have been a contributory factor, but probably not the sole explanation. A re-run is unlikely before the election of a sympathetic, probably Labor, government. The episode illustrates the immensity of the difficulty facing republicans in Britain where similarly favourable conditions are inconceivable in the foreseeable future.     

SOME NEW EVIDENCE ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF CRIME*

Previous studies of the seriousness of crime have attempted to elicit information from public surveys. This paper reports on an alternative method of ranking the severity of crime. Actual victim injury rates are combined with jury awards in personal injury accident cases to estimate pain, suffering, and fear. Crime-related death rates are combined with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death. These estimates are combined with out-of-pocket costs (such as medical costs and lost wages) to arrive at total dollar estimates of the cost of individual crimes to victims. These dollar estimates are then used to rank the seriousness of crimes. Although these two approaches yield surprisingly similar rankings, the monetary estimates indicate that violent crimes are relatively more costly to victims than survey results might imply.