SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND SPECIFIC DETERRENCE: INTEGRATING THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL MODELS OF RECIDIVISM*

This study uses survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory. It examines the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest, generally and under various conditions. Results suggest that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first-time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest. However, for arrestees with few ties and for experienced offenders, longer incarceration predicts longer time until rearrest.     

Liberation Movements and Robbery: A Comparative Analysis of Uganda and the United States

Both Uganda and the United States experienced precipitous increases in robbery in the middle and late 60's. In Uganda the change came within two years after formal independence from Britain and for the United States the rise came in the period after the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. In both cases, the offenders were poor, young black males. A major analysis of the phenomenon in the United States suggested relative economic deprivation as the principal explanatory factor. This paper contends that such an analysis both limits the meaning freedom movements may have for their participants and cannot account adequately for the similar trend in Uganda. Data suggest that violence receives a general legitimization in post-war periods and similar dynamics may apply to the participants in independence struggles. Further, studies suggest that the urban robber is characterized by a high degree of alienation that includes in Seeman's terminology—isolation, meaninglessness, and powerlessness. The movements may have mitigated somewhat this aspect of the lives of the urban poor and helped to account for the lack of change in robbery during the struggles. Their termination through symbolic success may have left a vacuum devoid of meaning and purpose, especially for unskilled, poor blacks, which generated new heights of anger and alienation and which, in turn, led to rapid increases in rebellious behavior such as armed robbery. Such a reality would pose a serious problem for leaders who successfully directed a popular revolution and must now stabilize an economy.     

POLITICAL RECRUITMENT BEYOND ELECTIONS: AN EXPLORATION OF THE LINKAGE BETWEEN PATRONAGE,DEMOCRACY, AND DIVERSITY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Flowing out of wider debates regarding representative democracy, the diversity of political institutions has gained salience. Normatively, it is suggested that it is simply unfair for white, middle‐aged males to dominate decision‐making structures. Instead it has been argued that representative diversity can enhance the legitimacy of political institutions and processes, whilst improving the quality and inclusivity of policy‐making. Although most of these arguments have been applied to elected institutions and their bureaucracies, they are also germane in the context of appointments to the boards of public bodies, as the work of these bodies and the decisions made by their board members impacts upon the everyday lives of citizens. Drawing upon original research conducted in the UK, this article argues that the capacity of political actors to make appointments to public boards offers an as yet unrealized democratic potential by offering more opportunities for social engagement and participation in public governance.     

VULNERABLE VICTIMS,MONSTROUS OFFENDERS,AND UNMANAGEABLE RISK: EXPLAINING PUBLIC OPINION ON THE SOCIAL CONTROL OF SEX CRIME

With the possible exception of terrorists, sex offenders in the United States experience a greater degree of punishment and restriction than any other offender group, nonviolent or violent. Members of the public overwhelmingly support “get tough” sex crime policies and display an intense hostility toward persons labeled “sex criminals.” The theoretical literature has identified three models potentially explaining public opinion on the social control of sex crime: the victim‐oriented concerns model, the sex offender stereotypes model, and the risk‐management concerns model. However, empirical work that directly tests these models is absent. This article addresses that gap by analyzing national survey data that includes measures of the key concepts outlined in the different theoretical models and items gauging support for punitive sex crime laws as well as support for sex offender treatment. The findings provide partial support for all three models but suggest that extant theories can better explain support for punitive sex crime policies than views about sex offender treatment.     

THE CONTRIBUTION OF GANG MEMBERSHIP TO DELINQUENCY BEYOND DELINQUENT FRIENDS*

Both being involved in a gang and having friends who are delinquent have been shown to contribute to an individual's own delinquency. However, the unique contribution of gang membership to delinquency, above and beyond having delinquent peers, has not been well studied. Increased delinquency among gang members may not be due to gang membership per se, but to the members' association with delinquent peers. Using data from the Seattle Social Development Project, this research compared involvement in delinquency for gang members, nongang youths with delinquent friends, and nongang youths who did not have delinquent friends. MANOVA and follow-up ANOVA were conducted to determine differences on measures of delinquency among the three groups at ages 14 and 15. Gang members were found to have a higher rate of offending in the past year when compared with the other groups. The contribution of gang membership to delinquency above and beyond having delinquent friends was also examined using structural equation modeling. Gang membership was found to independently predict both self-reported and officially recorded delinquency beyond the effects of having delinquent friends and prior delinquency. Implications of the results for delinquency prevention and intervention efforts are discussed.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE FOUNDATION OF THE JUVENILE COURT*

Over 100 years ago, juvenile courts emerged out of the belief that juveniles are different from adults—less culpable and more rehabilitatable—and can be "saved" from a life of crime and disadvantage. Today, the juvenile justice system is under attack through increasing calls to eliminate it and enactment of statutes designed to place younger offenders in the adult justice system. However, little evidence exists that policy makers have taken the full range of public views into account. At the same time, scholarly accounts of calls to eliminate the juvenile justice system have neglected the role of public opinion. The current study addresses this situation by examining public views about 1) abolishing juvenile justice and 2) the proper upper age of original juvenile court jurisdiction. Particular attention is given to the notion that child‐saving and "get tough" orientations influence public views about juvenile justice. The analyses suggest support for the lingering appeal of juvenile justice among the public and the idea that youth can be “saved,” as well as arguments about the politicization and criminalization of juvenile justice. They also highlight that the public, like states, holds variable views about the appropriate age of juvenile court jurisdiction. We discuss the implications of the study and avenues for future research. Why is it not just and proper to treat these juvenile offenders, as we deal with the neglected children, as a wise and merciful father handles his own child whose errors are not discovered by the authorities? Why is it not the duty of the state, instead of asking merely whether a boy or a girl has committed a specific offense, to find out what he is, physically, mentally, morally, and then if it learns that he is treading the path that leads to criminality, to take him in charge, not so much to punish as to reform, not to degrade but to uplift, not to crush but to develop, to make him not a criminal but a worthy citizen.