Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict

Do natural disasters prolong civil conflict? Or are disasters more likely to encourage peace as hostilities diminish when confronting shared hardship or as shifts in the balance of power between insurgents and the state hasten cessation? To address these questions, this study performs an event history analysis of disasters’ impact on the duration of 224 armed intrastate conflicts occurring in 86 states between 1946 and 2005. I contend that natural disasters increase conflict duration by decreasing the state’s capacity to suppress insurgency, while reinforcing insurgent groups’ ability to evade capture and avoid defeat. First, disasters’ economic impact coupled with state financial outlays for disaster relief and reconstruction, reduce resources available for counterinsurgency and nation building in conflict zones. Second, the military’s role in administering humanitarian assistance can reduce the availability of troops and military hardware for counterinsurgency, prompt temporary ceasefires with insurgents, or both. Third, natural disasters can cause infrastructural damages that disproportionately hinder the state’s capacity to execute counterinsurgency missions, thereby making insurgent forces more difficult to capture and overcome. The combination of these dynamics should encourage longer conflicts in states with higher incidence of disaster. Empirical evidence strongly supports this contention, indicating that states with greater disaster vulnerability fight longer wars.     

Legitimacy Deficit: Chinese Leadership at the United Nations

This paper examines the likelihood of China’s legitimation as the global hegemon during an era of relative U.S. decline. Using Rapkin’s (1990) legitimacy deficit framework, the author tests China’s prospects for international legitimacy through the analysis of Chinese leadership at the United Nations (UN). While China’s recent exponential increase in contributions to UN peacekeeping and the UN regular budget signal growing Chinese global leadership, their consistent focus on regional interests, as displayed in UN Security Council and UN General Assembly debate and discussion, indicates the absence of an internationally supported agenda. In concluding, this paper asserts that recent Chinese legitimation efforts through UN leadership have been stonewalled by an inability to provide an international agenda with globally held values and beliefs.     

System intervention problems in child sexual abuse investigations: the mothers' perspectives

On learning that her child was sexually abused, a mother must interact with professionals charged with the implementation of investigations, treatment, and legal remedies. This qualitative study, based on data from three focus groups (n = 19) and open-ended survey questions (n = 40), documents mothers' experiences with these professionals. Mothers report a lack of support from many professionals including receiving poor services, being criticized, insensitivity to their concerns, and being accused of false allegations and state that they have difficulty seeing the "system" as a positive future resource. Mothers reported appreciation for helpful professionals, whom they most often identified as therapists. Determining which mothers are reporting system problems and the effect of negative maternal-system interactions on mother and child outcomes are recommended as follow-up research.     

Beheading the Hydra: Counterinsurgent Violence and Insurgent Attacks in Iraq

We evaluate the effectiveness of anti-insurgent violence as a means to suppress insurgency with micro-level data from the Iraq War. Our findings suggest that while violence against insurgents increases the incidence of future insurgent attacks, the intensity of this violence can significantly influence the outcome. Rather than shifting monotonically, the effect is actually curvilinear, first rising, and then contracting. We argue that at low to moderate levels, violence against insurgents creates opportunities for these groups to signal strength and resolve, which enables them to build momentum, heighten civilian cooperation, and diminish political support for counterinsurgency efforts in these forces’ home countries. The result is an escalation in insurgent attacks. However, at higher levels, this effect should plateau and taper off as insurgent attrition rises, and as civilian fears over personal safety displace grievances that might otherwise provoke counter-mobilization. Our empirical tests on data from the Iraq War, 2004–2009, demonstrate robust support for this argument.     

Violence and the U.S. prohibitions of drugs and alcohol

This paper examines the relation between prohibitions and violence,using the historical behavior of the homicide rate in the UnitedStates. The results document that increases in enforcement ofdrug and alcohol prohibition have been associated with increasesin the homicide rate, and auxiliary evidence suggests this positivecorrelation reflects a causal effect of prohibition enforcementon homicide. Controlling for other potential determinants ofthe homicide rate does not alter the conclusion that drug andalcohol prohibition have substantially raised the homicide ratein the U.S. over much of the past 100 years.