POLICY ANALYSIS IN BRITISH CENTRAL GOVERNMENT: THE EXPERIENCE OF PAR

Programme Analysis and Review (PAR) was an approach to policy analysis introduced in 1970 by Edward Heaths administration as part of a systematic attempt to develop 'rational' government. In the early years some substantial reviews were completed, but from 1973 the exercise faded as less political commitment was devoted to it and institutional compromise and disillusion spread. This paper charts the life of PAR until its official demise in 1979 and analyses its experience, Above all, it suggests that PAR was unable to satisfy the technical, organizational and political preconditions for effective analysis.     

Inequality,Ethnicity, Political Mobilisation and Political Violence in Latin America: The Cases of Bolivia,Guatemala and Peru*

The paper explores the relationship between political violence and ‘horizontal’ inequality in ethnically‐divided countries in Latin America. The cases studied are Bolivia, Guatemala and Peru. Preliminary results are reported on the measurement of horizontal inequality, or that between groups, defined in cultural, ethnic and/or religious terms. The Latin American cases are shown to be often more unequal than the cases from Africa and Asia included in the wider study of which the work forms a part. The complex relationship between such inequality, ethnicity and political violence is explored historically. Ethnicity is today rarely a mobilising factor in violence in the Latin American cases, but the degree of inequality based on ethnicity is shown to be highly relevant to the degree of violence which results once conflict is instigated. History explains why.     

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS AND DELINQUENCY ESCALATION IN EARLY ADOLESCENCE*

A recent emphasis in criminology has been on trajectories, life transitions, and turning points that affect the escalation, stabilization, or desistance of deviant behavior. The purpose of this article is to describe and examine one potential pathway of delinquency escalation in early and mid-adolescence. It draws upon Agnew's general strain theory and research on adolescent stress to describe a significant transitory stage of the life course. A key organizing principle underlying the proposed pathway is that although stressful life events are highly variable among adolescents, experiencing a persistent or increasing number over time can lead to an escalation of delinquency. Using four years of sequential data from the Family Health Study (651 adolescents aged 11–14 during year one), we estimate a hierarchical growth-curve model that emphasizes the effects of life events on delinquency. The model assumes that delinquency is distributed as an overdispersed Poisson random variable. The results indicate that experiencing a relatively high number of life events over time is related to a significant “growth” of delinquency but that this relationship is not affected by sex, family income, self-esteem, or mastery.