Crime and Expected Punishment: Changes in Perceptions at the Age of Criminal Majority

This paper assesses whether perceived punishment severity changesdiscontinuously when an individual becomes an adult in the eyesof the courts. I find that the perceived chance of jail increasesby 5.2 percentage points at the age of criminal majority, whichis over and above the general effect of aging. The magnitudeof this subjective change in the chance of jail at the age ofmajority appears to be substantially smaller than that foundin objective data. Finally, a reduced-form analysis of whetherself-reported criminal behavior changes discontinuously at theage of criminal majority finds little consistent evidence ofdeterrence.