RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE OFFENDING FREQUENCY (λ) OF IMPRISONED AND FREE OFFENDERS*

In the public debate over incarceration policy, there is considerable disagreement about what value of individual offending frequency (λ) is appropriate to use in estimating incapacitative effects. This article provides an approach for estimating the mean values of λ for diverse subsets of the total offender population, with particular emphasis on subsets generated by filtering through various stages of the criminal justice system. Sharp differences in offending frequency are displayed between robbery and burglary inmates, across three states, and particularly between resident inmates and free, active offenders. Free offenders average 1 to 3 robberies and 2 to 4 burglaries per year, while resident inmates have λ values 10 to 50 times higher. Differences result from the underlying levels of criminal activity and the sanction Levels that offenders face. A highly heterogeneous distribution of offending frequency in the total population of offenders combines with relatively Low imprisonment levels to lead to substantial selectivity of high-λ offenders among resident inmates and a correspondingly low mean value of λ among those offenders who remain free. These results have important implications for estimating incapacitative effects of an increase in incarceration, since the additional inmates will be drawn from free offenders whose mean λ is at least an order of magnitude Lower than that of the current inmate population.     

ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN VARYING RISK SETTINGS: DO POLICE RAIDS REDUCE ILLEGAL DRUG DEALING AT NUISANCE BARS?*

This paper investigates the effectiveness of police raids in reducing drug dealing in and around nuisance bars. We examine effects of both dosage (number of raids) and duration (months) of the intervention, as well as the conditioning effects of land use and population characteristics in shaping the underlying risk levels of drug dealing in the target and surrounding areas. Results indicate that the police intervention suppresses levels of drug dealing during periods of active enforcement, but the effects largely disappear when the intervention is withdrawn. Also, the effects of the intervention are mediated by risk characteristics in target and surrounding areas. Target areas characterized by higher levels of risk are more resistant to intervention effects than those with lower levels of risk. Risk factors in nearby areas are also significant. Bars with high levels of risk arising from land uses in surrounding areas are easier to treat, while bars with high levels of population‐based risk in surrounding areas are harder to treat.     

THE SOCIAL EMBEDDEDNESS OF CRIME AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

A missing piece in the literature that links crime and unemployment is an understanding of the proximate causes of joblessness in the lives of individuals. Granovetter has demonstrated with his concept of social embeddedness that early employment contacts can enhance the prospects of getting a job and subsequent occupational mobility. The alternative implication is that youths who are embedded in criminal contexts can become isolated from the likelihood of legitimate adult employment. This has important implications for an understanding of crime and unemployment, for while much of past macro-level research confirms that unemployment leads to crime in the aggregate, the reverse is likely true at the individual level among adolescents and young adults, especially in community settings with serious crime and unemployment problems. The implications of criminal embeddedness are explored in a well-known set of London panel data. Understanding the process of embeddedness is important because it helps to identify points of intervention, such as peer and justice system contacts.     

REVIEW ESSAY:

The Social Contexts of Criminal Sentencing by Martha A. Myers and Susette Talarico.
Racial Disparities in the Criminal Justice System by Joan Petersilia.
The Myth of a Racist Criminal Justice System by William Wilbanks.     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

THE CRIMINOLOGY OF GENOCIDE: THE DEATH AND RAPE OF DARFUR

Nearly 400,000 Africans may have been killed in racially motivated, lethally destructive, state supported, and militarily unjustified attacks on the farms and villages of the Darfur region of Sudan. Using victimization survey data collected from Darfurian survivors living in refugee camps in Chad, and drawing on conflict theory, we present evidence that the Sudanese government has directly supported violent killings and rapes in a lethally destructive exercise of power and control. In the language of the Geneva Genocide Convention, these attacks have inflicted on African tribal groups "conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction in whole or in part." The data include explicit evidence of the central mediating role played by racism in the attacks. There is little or no evidence from the surveys to support the claim of the Sudanese government that the attacks have been aimed at rebel groups as a counter-insurgency strategy. The Sudanese government claims are by this analysis not credible as self-defense arguments, but rather of the exercise of power and control through denial. Further forms of such denial are considered, including the slowness of modern American criminology to advance the study of genocide.