Restructuring structured analytic techniques in intelligence

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting—and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., over-confidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process—and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community.     

On Estimating Post-Cold War Enemy Intentions

In the winter 1978 issue of International Security, Raymond L. Garthoff authored a seminal article outlining common fallacies in United States government estimates of enemy intentions during the Cold War. Now, given the significant changes in threat over the past 30 years, it seems appropriate to take a fresh look at fallacies – evaluating old ones and introducing new ones – in enemy intentions estimates pertaining to post-Cold War (and post-9/11) security dangers. Based on its assessment, this article concludes that the challenges to accurate intelligence assessment of enemy intentions, and the need to move away from dysfunctional standard operating procedures, have never been higher.     

Prisoners’ Positive Illusions of Their Post-Release Success

Prisoners' forecasts of post-release success may have implications for how they respond to imprisonment, release, and parole decisions. We examined sentenced US and UK prisoners' forecasts of recidivism, and how well UK prisoners believed they would fare compared to the average other prisoner. In both samples, forecasts of recidivism were unrealistically optimistic when compared to official statistics on recidivism. UK prisoners also demonstrated a self-enhancement bias by forecasting that they were less likely to re-offend than other prisoners. Prisoners' forecasts of recidivism were predicted by only a few of the pre-prison, in-prison, and post-prison factors that have been shown to be associated with actual recidivism. We discuss the implications of these findings and propose avenues for future research.     

Classification Improvements in Automated Gunshot Residue (GSR) Scans

Classification of particles as gunshot residues (GSRs) is conducted using a semiautomatic approach in which the system first classifies particles based on an automatic elemental analysis, and then, examiners manually analyze particles having compositions which are characteristic of or consistent with GSRs. Analyzing all the particles in the second stage is time consuming with many particles classified by the initial automated system as being potentially GSRs excluded as such by the forensic examiner. In this paper, a new algorithm is developed to improve the initial classification step. The algorithm is based on a binary tree that was trained on almost 16,000 particles from 43 stubs used to sample hands of suspects. The classification algorithm was tested on 5,900 particles from 23 independent stubs and performed very well in terms of false positive and false negative rates. A routine use of the new algorithm can reduce significantly the analysis time of GSRs.     

Using Video to Reduce Home Safety Hazards with Parents Reported for Child Abuse and Neglect

Safety hazards are frequent in the homes of families reported for child abuse and neglect. The effectiveness of a videotape intervention with two families involved with child abuse and neglect was examined, using a replicated multiple probe design across settings. Data were collected using the Home Accident Prevention Inventory — Revised, and the Checklist for the Video-Trained Parent's Behavior. Social validation and expert validation data are also presented.     

A Mixture Model for the Number of Gunshot Residues Found on Suspects' Hands

Quantifying the strength of gunshot residue (GSR) evidence requires scientific knowledge about the number of particles expected to be found on individuals who were or were not involved in a shooting. However, controlled experiments demand expensive resources in terms of microscope time and labor, which restricts the data of most studies to only a small group of individuals. We suggest a novel method that exploits data collected routinely on suspects during the daily work of forensic laboratories. These observational data relate to both persons who were involved in a shooting and innocent individuals. We suggest a mixture approach with different models for the number of gunshot residue particles in each group and develop an iterative algorithm to estimate the probabilities of observing the evidence under the defense proposition that the suspect is innocent and under the prosecution assumption that he is not. The method is applied to data of more than 500 suspects collected by the Israel National Police Division of Identification and Forensic Science. The analysis shows that the probability of finding three or more GSR particles on the hands of innocent suspects is very small, less than 1.5 in 1000 cases. Our new method enables researchers to use data on real cases, possibly supplemented by experimental data, in order to estimate the probabilities of a given GSR finding under the defense and prosecution propositions.     

Can Audience Development Promote Social Diversity in German Public Arts Institutions?

Despite generous public funding, arts institutions in Germany are primarily serving a small, educated section of the German population. This article presents findings from arts participation surveys, research from an empirical study on “Intercultural Audience Development” in public theaters and museums, and an analysis of cultural policy debates to reveal the role of audience development in overcoming the social imbalance of audiences in German cultural institutions. Research findings suggest that traditional concepts of audience development do not lead to sustainable changes in the social structure of the audience. More substantial institutional changes are necessary, supported by new cultural policies.