Analyzing Multiple-Item Measures of Crime and Deviance I: Item Response Theory Scaling

Multiple-item measures of self-reported offending typically provide the principal outcome measures for individual level research on the causes of crime and deviance. This article directs attention to the substantial problems presented by the task of forming composite scores for these measures, and it presents a possible solution to those problems. We consider scaling by means of the graded response model from item response theory (IRT) as a potential means of overcoming the shortcomings of traditional summative scaling and of obtaining valuable information about the strengths and weaknesses of our measures. We illustrate this strategy through a scale analysis of a fourteen-item, self-report measure of delinquency, using three years of data from the Monitoring the Future study, an annual national survey of high school seniors. The graded response model proves to be consistent with the data, and it provides results that address important substantive questions about self-report measures. The findings are informative about the strengths and weaknesses of alternative strategies for developing self-report instruments, indicating that there is little to be gained by making fine distinctions in the frequency of individual delinquent acts.     

From doves to hawks: A spatial analysis of voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England

This article examines the making of monetary policy in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2008 by analysing voting behaviour in the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). It provides a new set of measures for the monetary policy preferences of individual MPC members by estimating a Bayesian item response model. The article demonstrates the usefulness of these measures by comparing the ideal points of outgoing MPC members with their successors and by looking at changes over time in the median ideal point on the MPC. The analysis indicates that the British Government has been able to move the position of the median voter on the MPC through its appointments to the Committee. This highlights the importance of central bank appointments for monetary policy.     

Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession

This article links the consequences of the Great Recession on protest and electoral politics. It innovates by combining the literature on economic voting with social movement research and by presenting the first integrated, large-scale empirical analysis of protest mobilisation and electoral outcomes in Europe. The economic voting literature offers important insights on how and under what conditions economic crises play out in the short-run. However, it tends to ignore the closely connected dynamics of opposition in the two arenas and the role of protests in politicising economic grievances. More specifically, it is argued that economic protests act as a ‘signalling mechanism’ by attributing blame to decision makers and by highlighting the political dimension of deteriorating economic conditions. Ultimately, massive protest mobilisation should, thus, amplify the impact of economic hardship on the electoral losses of incumbents and mainstream parties more generally. The empirical analysis to study this relationship relies on an original semi-automated protest event dataset combined with an updated dataset of electoral outcomes in 30 European countries from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that the dynamics of economic protests and electoral punishment are closely related and point to a destabilisation of European party systems during the Great Recession.     

Risk factors for violence and relational aggression in adolescence

Analyses examined risk factors for seventh-and ninth-grade youth categorized as nonoffenders, physically violent, relationally aggressive, and both violent and relationally aggressive. Bivariate and multivariate results showed that relationally aggressive youth were elevated on most risks above levels for nonoffenders but lower than those for youth who were violent alone or violent in combination with relational aggression. Youth who were both relationally aggressive and violent did not differ from those who were violent alone on most risk factors examined. Peer, individual, and family risks were among the strongest predictors.     

Evaluation of a restorative justice-based,community-based program for people who have offended sexually: participant impact

Community Justice Initiatives, Kitchener, Canada, offers a Restorative Justice program called Revive to people impacted by sexual harm, including men who have offended sexually. This volunteer-led program treats participants with compassion while holding them accountable for sexual harm perpetrated. Program goals include reducing isolation, promoting self-awareness, and fostering healing. Based on restorative justice principles, positive community reintegration and reduction of further sexual offending are the ultimate goals of the program.

We evaluated information from a questionnaire administered at intake, after the 7-week phase, and again after participation in the peer-support group. Participants responded quantitatively about the impact of Revive on six sexual offense-related outcomes statements (e.g., gaining understanding of their triggers, understanding why they sexually offended). They also indicated the impact of Revive on psychosocial dimensions such as stigma perception and social support. Qualitative questions further elucidated the experience of Revive participation. Findings suggest that Revive has an impact on self-understanding of why they sexually offended, victim empathy, as well as stress reduction and increased self-esteem. We conclude that the restorative justice framework is a very hopeful, positive one and that the Revive program is effective at enacting restorative justice-based principles.     

Analyzing Multiple-Item Measures of Crime and Deviance II: Tobit Regression Analysis of Transformed Scores

The purpose of this article is to inform criminological researchers about tobit regression, an alternative regression model that deserves more attention in this field. Tobit regression is intended for continuous data that are censored, or bounded at a limiting value. The tobit model may be a particularly good match to measures of self-reported offending, provided they have been transformed to reduce skewness. We present empirical analyses that evaluate the match of self-report measures to the assumptions of ordinary least square (OLS) and tobit regression models and that assess the consequences of any violations of assumptions. The analyses use a fourteen-item, self-report measure of delinquency from the Monitoring the Future study, a national survey of high school seniors. These analyses provide clear evidence that (1) transformations to reduce skewness improve the match of OLS to the data but still leave considerable discrepancies, and (2) the tobit model is well suited to the transformed measure. We conclude by assessing the purposes for which tobit offers greater and smaller advantages over OLS regression.     

Environmental effects on magnetic fluorescent powder development of fingermarks on bird of prey feathers

A comparison study of the effects of environmental conditions on the development of latent fingermarks on raptor feathers using green magnetic fluorescent powder was undertaken using both sebaceous loaded and natural fingermark deposits. Sparrowhawk feathers were stored in indoor conditions for 60?days (Study 1), and buzzard feathers were left exposed to two different environmental conditions (hidden and visible) for 21?days (Study 2), with developments made at regular ageing periods. In Study 1, latent fingermarks were successfully developed (Grade 1–4) on the indoor feathers up to 60?days after deposition – 98.6% of the loaded deposits and 85.3% for natural deposits. Under outdoor conditions in Study 2, both loaded and natural deposits were affected by environmental exposure. Latent fingermarks were successfully developed up to 14?days after deposition on the outdoor feathers, with some occasional recovery after 21?days. The visible feathers recorded 34.7% (loaded) and 16.4% (natural) successful developments (Grade 1–4), whereas the hidden feathers recorded 46.7% (loaded) and 22.2% (natural) successful developments, suggesting that protection from the environment helps to preserve latent fingermarks on the surface of a feather. Environmental exposure accelerated the deterioration of ridge detail and the number of successful developments.     

Climate politics in hard times: How local economic shocks influence MPs attention to climate change

Most countries struggle to implement CO₂ reducing policies. Implementation is politically difficult since it typically forces politicians to trade-off different concerns. The literature on how parties and members of parliament (MPs) handle these trade-offs is sparse. We use structural topic models to study how MPs in an oil dependent environment responded to a shock in the oil price that created spatially concentrated costs of climate policies. We leverage the rapid oil price drop between parliamentary sessions and MPs’ constituency adherence in a difference-in-differences framework to identify if MPs respond differently to variation in the salience of trade-offs. We find that MPs facing high political costs of climate policies tried to avoid environmental topics, while less affected MPs talked more about investments in green energy when the oil price declined. Our results suggest that the oil price bust created a ‘window of opportunity’ for advocates of the ‘ green shift’.