Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

扩增X—Y同源Amelogenin基因内含子在性别鉴定中的应用研究

本文用一对针对X－Y同源的Amelogenin基因第一内含子的引物，于同一试管中分别扩增出针对于x和Y染色体的特异性DNA片段：106bp及112bp的PCR产物，经聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳后用银染法观察扩增结果，取得了满意的效果．对50pgDNA模板室温放置16年的血痕及单根毛发、烟头等检材均可得到明确的性别鉴定结果．本实验证明该方法简便、灵敏、可靠、特别适用于腐败降解检材的法医学性别鉴定．     

Treatment-Related Reductions in Disability Are Associated with Reductions in Perceived Injustice Following Treatment of Whiplash Injury

Emerging evidence suggests that perceived injustice is a risk factor for poor recovery outcomes in individuals with whiplash injuries. The present study examined the relative contributions of treatment-related reductions in pain severity, depressive symptoms, and disability in the prediction of reductions in perceived injustice in individuals with whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 71 individuals (43 women and 28 men) who sustained whiplash injuries in motor vehicle accidents and who were enrolled in a treatment program designed to promote functional recovery following whiplash injury. For the purposes of this study, only individuals who scored above the risk threshold on a measure of perceived injustice were included in the study sample. Participants completed measures of pain severity, disability, depressive symptomatology, and perceived injustice prior to treatment and after treatment. Change scores were computed for study variables. The results revealed that reductions in pain severity and disability were correlated with reductions in perceived injustice. Regression analyses revealed that only reductions in disability contributed significant unique variance to the prediction of reductions in perceived injustice. Clinical and theoretical implications of the present findings are discussed.     

Democracy,Power and Indigeneity

This article identifies a theoretical nexus between indigeneity and liberal democracy in three post‐colonial contexts. Like democracy, the politics of indigeneity asks questions and makes assumptions about where power ought to lie and how it ought to be shared in relation to political inclusion and national sovereignty. The interaction of indigeneity with democracy highlights the limitations of liberal theory as well as the opportunities it provides to meet indigenous claims and conceptions of justice. Exploring the ideological tensions and commonalities between democracy and indigeneity allows a contrast, in comparative context, of the proposition that in Fiji, for example, democracy is “a foreign flower” unsuited to the local environment with the argument that liberal representative democracy can, in fact, mediate power in favour of an inclusive national polity.