Short and long-term prediction of recidivism using the youth level of service/case management inventory in a sample of serious young offenders

The present investigation examined the predictive accuracy of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Canadian sample of 167 youths (93 males, 74 females) charged with serious offenses who received psychological services from a community mental health outpatient clinic. Youths were followed for an average of 7 years in the community, and predictive accuracy was examined for several recidivism outcomes as a function of gender, ethnicity, and developmental age group. YLS/CMI total scores significantly predicted all recidivism categories in the overall sample (area under the curve values ranged from 0.66 to 0.77) although the instrument as a whole, and its criminogenic needs, demonstrated somewhat stronger and more consistent predictive accuracy for youth outcomes. The YLS/CMI also demonstrated significant predictive accuracy within demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the use of risk-need assessment tools in providing clinical assessment, treatment, and case management services to diverse young offender groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Risk-Need-Responsivity applications of the MMPI-2 in sexual offender assessment

The present investigation examined the risk, need, and responsivity (RNR) correlates of MMPI-2 scores in a Canadian sample of 349 federally incarcerated sex offenders, followed up prospectively 19 years post-release. In terms of responsivity indicators, more serious profile patterns were associated with younger age, single marital status, lower education, and lower cognitive ability; the scales generally had weak associations with sex offender treatment completion or change. With respect to criminogenic risk and need, Scales F, 4, 6, 8, and 9 and combinations therein had significant associations with structured measures of sex offender risk, and in turn, consistently predicted sexual or violent recidivism over 5 and 10-year follow-ups. Several of these predictive associations were maintained even after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Finally, model based clustering of the MMPI-2 scales generated three clusters termed disordered, emotionally distressed, and predominantly antisocial (non-disordered) subtypes. Although comparatively higher rates of violent recidivism were found with the disordered subtype, this group did not have higher levels of risk and need, broadly speaking, than the other subtypes. The RNR implications of the results are discussed in terms of forensic applications of MMPI-2 with sex offender populations.     

Predictors of sex offender treatment dropout: psychopathy,sex offender risk,and responsivity implications

Abstract

We examined sex offender treatment dropout predictors, in particular, the relationship of psychopathy and sex offender risk to treatment dropout in a sample of 154 federally incarcerated sex offenders treated in a high intensity sex offender treatment program. Demographic, criminal history, mental health and treatment-related data as well as data on risk assessment measures including the Static 99, Violence Risk Scale – Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and Psychopathy Checklist – Revised (PCL-R) were collected. Logistic regression and discriminant function analyses were used to identify predictors that made significant and unique contributions to dropout among all the variables under study. The Emotional facet of Factor 1 of the PCL-R and never being married were found to be the most salient predictors of treatment dropout and correctly identified about 70% of the cases. The implications of the findings for managing treatment dropout and for the treatment of psychopathic offenders are discussed.     

The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.     

Some notes on the validation of VRS-SO static scores

ABSTRACT

The present study was a psychometric examination of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003 Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan. [Google Scholar]). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan) static item scores in a Canadian multisite sample of 668 treated adult male sexual offenders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of 13 nonredundant Static-99R and VRS-SO static items generated three factors labelled Youthful Aggression, Sexual Criminality, and General Criminality. The factor and total scores converged with Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic factor scores. Scores on the VRS-SO static items, EFA-derived factors, and total score each significantly predicted 5- and 10-year sexual, violent, and general recidivism through ROC analyses. Cox regression survival analyses showed all three factors uniquely predicted sexual recidivism to varying degrees in the overall sample; however, only Youthful Aggression and General Criminality uniquely significantly predicted violent and general recidivism in the overall sample and among sexual offender subgroups. Implications for theory, clinical practice, and instrument refinement are discussed.     

Medicolegal practice in Samoa: an inside view

Samoa, considered the heart of Polynesia, has a medicolegal system with some limitations. There is a need to build a well-organized medicolegal service. The authors briefly outline the medicolegal system in Samoa from its beginning to the present and discuss future improvements.     

The relationship between mental illness and violence in a mentally disordered offender sample: evaluating criminogenic and psychopathological predictors

The importance of mental illness as a risk factor for violence has been debated with significant implications for mental health policy and clinical practice. In offender samples, psychopathology tends to be unrelated to recidivism, although some researchers have noted that this relationship may be dependent upon certain moderating factors. In the present, prospective investigation, psychopathology is examined as predictors of recidivism in 121 provincially sentenced (i.e. less than 2 years) mentally disordered offenders. Results indicated that psychopathological predictors were generally poor predictors of recidivism in univariate and multivariate analyses. Consistent with our hypotheses, age of onset of criminal activity was a significant moderating factor on the relationship between mental illness and recidivism, although results were not in the expected direction for certain classes of mental illness. Results are discussed in the context of a social learning model of crime and in terms of the treatment of mentally disordered offenders.     

Outcome evaluation of a high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment program

The treatment outcome of a high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment program was evaluated by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of 472 treated and 282 untreated sex offenders. The program is designed for moderate- to high-risk sex offenders and follows the principles of effective correctional treatment. The current investigation is an extension of an earlier study (Nicholaichuk et al., 2000) with the addition of 176 participants, an extra 4 years follow-up, and the use of Cox regression survival analysis to control for three potentially confounding variables: age of release, sexual offending history, and length of follow-up. Treated offenders sexually recidivated significantly less than the comparison group over nearly 20 years of follow-up, even after controlling for the aforementioned variables. The substantive findings suggest that treatment adhering to the what works principles can reduce long-term sexual recidivism for a moderate- to high-risk group of sex offenders.