Rentier fiscal crisis and regime stability: Business-state relations in the Gulf

Are sectorally dependent states destined to regime instability as a result of chornic fiscal crisis? Literature emphasizing the importance of a country’s sectoral endowment suggests that oil exporters in particular should exhibit similar policy stagnation and regime decay as a result of fiscal crisis. The cases of Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain in the 1980s and 1990s demonstrate that fiscal crisis outcomes are not uniform. This article develops the critique that structuralist assumptions about what drives business-state relations during crisis are flawed. Abstract logics typing exogenous price sifts to the character of business-state interaction neglect the historical and instituional grounding of those relations. It is variation in the historical and institutional crafting of business-state relations that best explains how these relations shape reform under crisis and how regime stability is affected.     

Military Experience,Identity Discrepancies,and Far Right Terrorism: An Exploratory Analysis

The relationship between far right extremism and military involvement is a complex problem and the dynamics that explain this relationship are not well understood. The present article addresses this gap by discussing the relationship between military experience, identity discrepancies, and far right terrorism. This article proposes that identity discrepancies occur when individuals experience involuntary role exits from the military or when individuals perceive that personal achievements earned while enlisted are unrecognized or unappreciated. Identity discrepancies may facilitate a change in behavior toward far right extremism and eventually terrorism. Case study examples are provided to illustrate this relationship.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

Researching Environmental Crime in Non-democratic Regimes

This article describes how one might study environmental crime in non-democratic regimes. Environmental crimes and harms are committed in both democratic and non-democratic regimes, yet in non-democratic regimes, researchers face unique methodological challenges (e.g., threats to physical integrity). Despite these challenges, studying environmental crime in autocratic regimes is a worthwhile endeavor for both students and scholars of autocratic regimes and environmental crime, as well as the overlap thereof. First, such inquiries illuminate how environmental crime provides autocratic leaders with the resources to cement their power. Second, studying environmental crime in autocratic settings encourages a reconceptualization of the meaning of environmental crime. Namely, environmental crime in autocratic regimes does not start at the law implementation stage, but already at the law-making stage. In this article, we summarize and reflect on our work on environmental crime in the Armenian mining industry (Stefes and Theodoratos in Fighting environmental crime in Europe and Abroad: the role of the EU and its member states, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2016). Much of this work relied on interviews conducted with journalists, NGO representatives, and foreign diplomats familiar with the situation in the Armenian mining sector. As we present our findings, we highlight the challenges that researchers face when tracing the institutions, actors, and their networks that facilitate environmental crime. We conclude with some practical advice for researchers who want to study environmental crime under such autocratic conditions.