Stagflationary bias and the interaction of monetary policy and wages in a unionized economy

Economics Research Centre, School of Economic and Social Studies, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K. The paper investigates the claim of Gylfason and Lindbeck (Public Choice, 1994) that a stagflationary bias arises from the interaction between monetary policymaking and wagesetting if, among other things, the government and unions share a concern for inflation. It uses a game theoretic model of this interaction, in which the government plays an economy-wide union. Though simple, this nests several other models as special cases. In that corresponding to Gylfason and Lindbeck's model, the factors which they identify are shown to be sufficient for stagflationary bias, in a specified sense. However, for the union to care about inflation is not a necessary condition. The main result of the paper concerns the more general model. It establishes a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for stagflationary bias, as previously defined. These conditions do not include a shared concern for inflation. The paper comments briefly on the significance of this result for stagflation and economic modelling.     

Measuring Economic Integration in Developing Countries: The Case of Central America

This article builds a composite index, the Central American Integration Index (IIC-AMPI), to measure economic integration. This index utilises a robust methodology and conceptual framework. The study shows that IIC-AMPI is responsive to variable changes and resistant to outliers. The findings indicate that the Deep Integration Process initiative dominates the current integration trend, as seen in the regional average score from 2015 to 2017, aligning with Guatemala and Honduras. Nicaragua demonstrates the most consistent progress, while Panama lags behind. The evidence supports the Customs Union as Central America's future integration path, highlighting the index's ability to capture the dynamic reality of economic integration.     

Reviews

Vladimir Mau, The Political History of Economic Reform in Russia, 1985–1994 (Foreword by Lord Skidelsky; afterword by Egor Gaidar). London: Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1996, viii + 135 pp. £9.95.

Tim McDaniel, The Agony of the Russian Idea. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, x + 201 pp. £24.95.

John Lowenhardt, The Reincarnation of Russia. Struggling with the Legacy of Communism, 1990–1994. Harlow: Longman, 1995, xii + 238 pp. £12.99.

Jeffrey W. Hahn (ed.), Democratization in Russia: The Development of Legislative Institutions. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, 328 pp., $63.95 h/b, $24.95 p/b.

Celeste A. Wallander (ed.), The Sources of Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Boulder Co: Westview, 1996, xi + 233 pp., £15.50.

David Cox, Retreating from the Cold War: Germany, Russia and the Withdrawal of the Western Group of Forces, London: Macmillan, 1996, xiv + 185 pp., £35.00.

Mark Webber, The International Politics of Russia and the Successor States. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1996, xvii + 366 pp. £14.99.

Michael Kraus & Ronald D. Liebowitz (eds), Russia and Eastern Europe after Communism: The Search for New Political, Economic and Security Systems. Boulder, Co: Westview Press, 1996, xv+ 349 pp., £51.95.

Ivan T. Berend, Central and Eastern Europe, 1944–1993: Detour from Periphery to Periphery. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, xvii + 414 pp., £45.00.

Hubert Tworzecki, Parties and Politics in Post‐1989 Poland. Boulder, Co: Westview, 1996 xv + 219 pp.,

Jaroslav Krej?í & Pavel Machonin, Czechoslovakia 1918–92: A Laboratory for Social Change. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996, xviii + 266 pp., £42.50.

Jon Elster (ed.), The Roundtable Talks and the Breakdown of Communism. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. 1996, vi + 247 pp., £31.95.

J. Eatwell, M. Ellman, M. Nuti & J. Shapiro, Transformation and Integration: Shaping the Future of Central and Eastern Europe. London: Institute for Public Policy Research, 1995, 206 pp.

D. Gross & A. Steinherr, Winds of Change—Economic Transition in Central and Western Europe. London: Longman, 1995.

Constantine Michalopoulos & David Tarr, Trade Performance and Policy in the New Independent States. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1996, vi + 30 pp.

Laurila Juhani, Finnish‐Soviet Clearing Trade and Payment System: History and Lessons. Helsinki: Bank of Finland, 1995, 144 pp.

Walter R. Iwaskiw (ed.), Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: Country Studies. Washington, DC: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1996, xxxix + 304 pp.

Peter Unwin, Baltic Approaches. Wilby Hall, Norwich: Michael Russell, 1996, 256 pp., £19.50.

Yegor Ligachev, Inside Gorbachev's Kremlin: The Memoirs of Yegor Ligachev. Boulder, CO: Westview, 1996, xxxix + 407 pp., £19.00.

Hillel Ticktin & Michael Cox (eds), The Ideas of Leon Trotsky. London: Porcupine Press, 1995, viii + 386 pp., £14.95.

Folke Dovring, Leninism: Political Economy as Pseudoscience, Westport,: Praeger, 1996, xi + 155 pp., £39.95.

Kevin Anderson, Lenin, Hegel, and Western Marxism: A Critical Study, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1995, xvii + 311 pp., $49.95 h/b, $15.95 p/b.

Ragnar E. Löfstedt & Gunnar Sjöstedt (eds), Environmental Aid Programmes to Eastern Europe, Aldershot: Avebury, 1996, ix+226 pp., £37.50.

Seabron Adamson, Robin Bates, Robert Laslett & Alberto Potoschnig, Energy Use, Air Pollution, and Environmental Policy in Krakow: Can Economic Incentives Really Help? Washington DC: The World Bank, 1996, 67 pp.

Alexander S. Preker & Richard G.A. Feachem, Market Mechanisms and the Health Sector in Central and Eastern Europe. Washington DC: The World Bank, 1995, 48 pp.

Adrian Room, Placenames of Russia and the Former Soviet Union. London: McFarland 1996, v + 282 pp., £52.65.

G. S. Smith, The Letters of D. S. Mirsky to P. P. Suvchinskii, 1922–31. Birmingham: Department of Russian Language and Literature, University of Birmingham, 1995, vii + 238 pp., £16.00

Nicholas Rzhevsky (ed.), An Anthology of Russian Literature from Earliest Writings to Modern Fiction: Introduction to a Culture. London: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, xiv + 587 pp.

Donald J. Raleigh (ed.), The Emperors and Empresses of Russia: Rediscovering the Romanovs. New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1996, xviii + 414 pp., $59.95 h/b, $23.95 p/b.

Maureen Perrie, Pretenders and Popular Monarchism in Early Modern Russia: The False Tsars of the Time of Troubles. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, xvii + 269 pp. £40.00.     

Reviews

Barbara Caine and Rosemary Pringle (eds), Transitions: New Australian Feminisms (Allen & Unwin) 1995.

Peta Tait, Converging Realities: Feminism in Australian Theatre (Currency Press) Sydney, 1994.

Pauline Johnson, Feminism as Radical Humanism (Allen & Unwin) St Leonards, 1994.

Denise Russell, Women, Madness and Medicine (Polity Press) Cambridge, 1995.

R.W‐ Connell, Masculinities (Allen & Unwin) St Leonards, 1995.

Margaret Maynard, Fashioned from Penury: Dress as Cultural Practice in Colonial Australia (Cambridge University Press) Melbourne, 1994.

Joy Damousi, Women Come Rally: Socialism, Communism and Gender in Australia, 1890–1955 (Oxford University Press) Melbourne, 1995.

Susan Sheridan, Along the Faultlines: Sex, Race and Nation in Australian Women's Writing, 1880s—1930s (Allen & Unwin) Sydney, 1995.     

C: Reviews and notes bibliographies and works of reference

INTRODUCTORY GUIDE TO MIDDLE EASTERN AND ISLAMIC BIBLIOGRAPHY. (Middle East Libraries Committee Research Guides, 5.) Edited by PAUL AUCHTERLONIE. Oxford, Middle East Libraries Committee, 1990. v, 84pp. £9.50.

SUFI WOMEN. By JAVAD NURBAKHSH. Translated by L. Lewisohn. Rev. ed., London & New York, Khaniqahi‐Nimatullahi Publications, 1990. 263pp. 8 illustrations. £7.95.

WHO'S WHO IN THE ARAB WORLD 1990–1991. Tenth edition, thoroughly revised and completed. München, New York, London, Paris, K.G. Saur, for Publitec Publications, 1990. 927 pp. £180.00

INVENTARIO DE FOLLETOS: SECCIÓN DE ÁFRICA Y MUNDO ÁRABE DE LA BIBLIOTECA NACIONAL, I (CAJAS 7000 A 7021). By JAVIER GÓMEZ LÓPEZ & others. Madrid, Biblioteca Nacional, 1989. 124pp.

BIBLIOGRAFIA DE LA LITERATURA HISPANO‐ARABE. Compiled by MARIA JESUS RUBIERA MATA. Alicante, Universidad de Alicante, 1988. 75pp. Ptas. 566.‐

ESTUDIOS ONOMÁSTICO‐BIOGRÁFICOS DE AL‐ANDALUS, I. Edited by MANUELA MARlN. Madrid, CSIC, Instituto de Filología, Departamento de Estudio Árabes, 1988. 610,[2]pp.

ESTUDIOS ONOMÁSTICO‐BIOGRÁFICOS DE AL‐ANDALUS, II. Edited by MARlA LUISA ÁVILA. Granada, CSIC, Escuela de Estudios Árabes, 1989. 342,[2]pp.

AL‐ADAB AL‐TÜNISI AL‐MU'ASIR. By JEAN FONTAINE. Tunis, al‐Dar al‐Tūnisiyya li‐1‐Nashr, 1989. 191pp. TD3.200.

ENGLISH‐PERSIAN DICTIONARY OF LEGAL AND COMMERCIAL TERMS. Compiled By K.FAHIM, J. HABIBION and F. VITTOR. Leiden, Brill, 1989. 81pp. Hfl 150.

FLORA OF EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA. By JAMES P. MANDAVILLE. London, Kegan Paul International, in association with the National Commission for Wild Life Conservation and Development, Riyadh, 1990. x, 482pp. 200 colour ills. £95.00.     

The influence of individual and community-level child mortality on fertility in Egypt

Child mortality was analyzed in relation to 3 dimensions of reproductive behavior: birth intervals, additional children desired, and contraceptive use. Study data were drawn from a 1978 survey conducted in 2 predominantly rural governorates, Beheira and Kafr El-Sheikh, in lower Egypt. Within each governorate, 2 districts were selected on the basis of their distance from the capital of the governorate, agricultural output by major crops, percent of the population urban, infant mortality rate, and crude birthrate. Within each of the 4 districts, villages were randomly drawn from 3 strata: villages lacking any governmental services; villages with limited services (health center or primary school); and villages served by a combined unit center providing integrated services. A random sample of household heads was selected from household registration records of the provision office of each district. 1200 interviews were obtained from 685 households. Restriction of the sample to women with 1 or more live births, and the elimination of 13 cases with incomplete or inaccurate information, yielded 1010 cases for analysis. The basic measure of actual fertility was birth intervals. For the total sample and within each age category, cumulative fertility is higher the greater the number of child deaths. The data demonstrate a strong relationship between child mortality experience and cumulative fertility. The problem lies in interpreting such results. With some exceptions, birth intervals increased as expected with increasing parity. Women without child death experience displayed longer birth intervals than women who had not lost a child. With the single exception of the 7th parity women, all differences were statistically significant. The data fail to eliminate potential biological influences on subsequent fertility. With biological influences adequately controlled, no behavioral differences remained. Women who experienced child mortality desired greater numbers of additional children than women without child death experience. 19% of respondents were ever users of contraception, with women of low parity the least likely ever to have used contraception.     

Parenting Coordination In Cases Involving Intimate Partner Violence

Parenting Coordination is a “hybrid legal‐mental health role that combines assessment, education, case management, conflict management, dispute resolution and, often times, decision‐making functions (AFCC, 2019, https://www.afccnet.org/Portals/0/PublicDocuments/Guidelines%20for%20PC%20with%20Appendex.pdf?ver=2020-01-30-190220-990 ). This article addresses issues that arise when the case has allegations or findings of intimate partner violence (IPV). Considerations of the type of IPV, the severity, timing, perpetrator and effects on coparenting are discussed in the context of the parenting coordinator's role. Through screening and assessment, we differentiate the kinds of cases with the presence of IPV where a PC may be effective as opposed to other IPV cases that may not predict success for retaining a PC.     

Chemical Imaging of Human Fingermark by X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS)

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a widely used technique to characterize the surface chemistry of materials. It plays a crucial role in accessing qualitative and quantitative information and in detecting the presence of chemical functional groups on the surface of any material. The forensic methods available to detect and identify elements and organic/inorganic compounds are often destructive, so evidence cannot be re-analyzed. However, XPS allows rapid analysis of samples without damaging them. Recently, an increasing number of forensic researchers have begun to study certain chemical information on fingermarks. In this study, the authors aimed to present the applicability and power of XPS imaging in fingermark analysis which can also provide specific information about the fingermark chemical composition. Herein, monochromated X-ray (Al Kα) spot size was fixed at 50 μm. XPS mapping resulted in the acquisition of spectra at each pixel, in an array of 41 × 30 pixels with a step size of 50 μm. Then, a simple discussion has been made about how the scanned surface spectrum and basic snapshot spectra are used to identify different components at a fingertip of a scanned surface area (~3 mm²). Hence, a fingermark pattern contaminated with caffeine, TiO₂, and Pb/PbO deposited on the silicon wafer can be chemically mapped and visualized by XPS using principal component analysis (PCA). Thus, the present study showed the possible applicability of XPS for the identification of illicit drugs of abuse, gunshot residue, and skin care products on latent fingermark by mimicking a crime scene evidence.