The dynamics of candidate evaluations and vote choice in 2008: looking to the past or future?

In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.     

I — Legislation

In this paper, the various challenges to the prosecutorial discretion of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) are identified. It deals with two distinct areas of prosecutorial discretion: first, the scope of judicial review relating to prosecutorial decision in the light of the Privy Council judgment of Mohit v The Director of Public Prosecutions [2006] UKPC 20; and secondly, the impact and implications of the decision of the Purdy case which imposes an obligation on the DPP to issue a policy statement as regards conduct which will not be the subject matter of a prosecution even though there may be sufficient evidence to prosecute such conduct under the relevant legislation.     

A comparison of post-mortem ethanol levels obtained from blood and subdural specimens

Post-mortem subdural ethanol levels have been proposed as a useful test in certain forensic cases involving head trauma, particularly when the time interval from injury to death may have caused a lowering of the blood ethanol concentration to insignificant or undetectable levels. This study of 75 autopsied persons from whom both blood and subdural ethanol levels were obtained, shows the usefulness of the subdural ethanol level, especially where there is a prolonged or unknown post-traumatic time interval. Use of such a test is recommended in these situations.     

香港大律师公会主席林孟达致辞

今天各级司法人员，两大法律专业的成员，跟法律界在本地和海外的各方好友，在此齐首共聚一堂，我们正好趁着这个特别的场合，思考过去一年发生的事情和前瞻来年法律界、司法界将面对的挑战。去年，公会执行委员会比往常繁忙。公会就政府关於填补立法会因议员辞职的出缺安排的建议，五次发出声明，也对政府的谘询文件，提交了陈述书回应。     

律政司司长黄仁立龙致辞

去年十月我在巴黎出席在历史悠久、雄伟庄严的司法部大楼举行的庆祝《海牙取消认证公约》50周年的会议,并在会上发言。虽然这项公约仍未适用於内地,香港一向采用公约的原则,并使用公约规定的附加证明书超过40年。     

All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling

Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of information? Experts tend to evaluate the credibility of polls based on the survey methods used, vendor track record, and data transparency, but it is unclear if the public does the same. In two different experimental studies—one focusing on candidate evaluations in the 2016 U.S. election and one on a policy issue—we find a significant factor in respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll results themselves. Respondents viewed polls as more credible when majority opinion matched their opinion. Moreover, we find evidence of attitude polarization after viewing polling results, suggesting motivated reasoning in the evaluations of political polls. These findings indicate that evaluations of polls are biased by motivated reasoning and suggest that such biases could constrain the possible impact of polls on political decision making.