The Quality of Terror

I present a model of the interaction between a government, a terrorist organization, and potential terrorist volunteers in which, as a result of an endogenous choice, individuals with low ability or little education are most likely to volunteer to join the terrorist organization. However, the terrorist organization screens the volunteers for quality. Consequently, the model is consistent with two seemingly contradictory empirical findings. Actual terrorist operatives are not poor or lacking in education. And yet lack of economic opportunity and recessionary economies are positively correlated with terrorism. The model also endogenizes the effect of government counterterrorism on mobilization. Government crackdowns have competing effects on mobilization: they decrease the ability of terrorists to carry out effective attacks (making mobilization less attractive), and they foment ideological opposition to the government and impose negative economic externalities (making mobilization more attractive). This provides conditions under which government crackdowns increase or decrease mobilization.     

Monotone Comparative Statics for Models of Politics

We elucidate a powerful yet simple method for deriving comparative statics conclusions for a wide variety of models: Monotone Comparative Statics ( Milgrom and Shannon 1994 ). Monotone comparative static methods allow researchers to extract robust, substantive empirical implications from formal models that can be tested using ordinal data and simple nonparametric tests. When these methods apply, they can replace a diverse range of more technically difficult mathematics (facilitating richer, more realistic models), assumptions that are hard to understand or justify substantively (highlighting the political intuitions underlying a model's results), and a complicated set of methods for extracting implications from models. We present an accessible introduction to the central monotone comparative statics results and a series of practical tools for using these techniques in applied models (with reference to original sources, when relevant). Throughout we demonstrate the techniques with examples drawn from political science .     

Barbárie: literatura e filosofia moral

The view of the barbarity is a theme that has been inexhaustible due to the constant human ability of reinventing the horror’s dimensions. However, if analyzed through the political philosophy, this is a theme that requires continuous rereadings in order to prevent the risk of reactualization of the horror in the contemporary world’s roll of concerns. The horror’s reactualization in this context would be assisted by the weakness that is currently happening at the democratic institutions as a result of virulent denouncing criticisms that expose its infirmity, often deservedly. We believe that the barbarity is unembraceable and unapproachable in its integrality if seen through one single angle. Therefore, our purpose in this text is supporting the continuous process of reflecting about this theme through the possible conjunctive approximation of literature (Jünger and the survival’s literature) and political philosophy (Schmitt and his critics).     

Analyzing Brazilian vehicle documents for authenticity by easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry

Using desorption/ionization techniques such as easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), it is possible to analyze documents of Brazilian vehicles for authenticity, providing a chemical profile directly from the surface of each document. A method for the detection of counterfeit documents is described, and the falsification procedure is elucidated. Forty authentic and counterfeit documents were analyzed by both positive and negative ion modes, EASI(±)-MS. EASI(+)-MS results identified the presence of (bis(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate plasticizer and of dihexadecyldimethylammonium biocide in both types of documents. For EASI(-)-MS results, the 4-octyloxybenzoic acid additive ([M + H](+): m/z 249) is present only in counterfeit documents. It was also found that counterfeit vehicle documents are produced via Laserjet printers. Desorption/ionization techniques, such as EASI-MS, offer therefore, an intelligent way to characterize the counterfeiting method.     

LSD and 9,10-dihydro-LSD Analyses in Street Drug Blotter Samples via Easy Ambient Sonic-Spray Ionization MassSpectrometry (EASI-MS)

Normally, the identification of the LSD drug is performed by forensic laboratories, using the Ehrlich spot test. However, this is a nonspecific analysis. Additionally, the Brazilian Federal Police has identified the presence of a new compound in seized blotters: 9,10-dihydro-LSD, an uncontrolled substance. In this work, easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry in the positive ion mode, EASI(+)-MS, was used to characterize LSD and 9,10-dihydro-LSD compositions directly from the surface of blotters. The presence of LSD in the seized blotter samples were also confirmed via high-performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detector. In a set of 41 blotters analyzed by EASI(+)-MS, 28 showed positive results for LSD, seven for 9,10-dihydro-LSD, and another six samples showed negative results for both LSD and 9,10-dihydro-LSD. The combination of thin layer chromatography with EASI-MS also demonstrated to be a relatively simple and powerful screening tool for forensic analysis of street drugs.     

Medicinal Marijuana,Inc.: A Critique on the Market-led Legalization of Cannabis and the Criminalization of Rural Livelihoods in Colombia

Critical Criminology - In Colombia, Law 1787 of 2016 legalized marijuana for medicinal and scientific purposes. The law promotes social inclusion in two ways: (1) establishing mechanisms to...     

Symposium on Replication in International Studies Research

The following symposium tackles an important debate in the field of international studies research and in social science research more broadly. Originating as presentations at the 2002 International Studies Association meetings in New Orleans, the following set of papers examines issues concerning the potential replication of research results from a number of different conceptual and technical perspectives. It also spans an array of journals and journal editors in our field that confront issues of replication on a regular basis. The interactions generated by this symposium have already led to the agreement, detailed at the end of the symposium among the four leading internations relations journals to adopt a single common replication policy. The editors of these journals challenge others to follow their lead. The Editors of ISP hope that this symposium begins a larger discussion on these issues and invites commentary from interested scholars. Lastly, I want to thank Nils Petter Gleditsch for soliciting, organizing, and coordinating the contributions to this symposium. Without his work, this project would not have come to fruition as quickly or in as insightful a fashion. Three anonymous reviewers also provided detailed comments on the entire set of articles in this symposium. We are indebted to the care and effort they gave to the project. Mark A. Boyer For the Editors of ISP     

Domestic Politics and International Relations

In reviewing the history of portions of international studies I reflect on how we might best advance knowledge. I dwell on two issues: questions of method and the urgency of refocusing our efforts on leaders and domestic affairs as the centerpiece for understanding the world of international relations. I argue that scientific progress is best made by combining three methodological approaches in our research: formal, mathematical logic to ensure internal consistency in arguments about complex and contingent relations among variables; case studies and archival research to evaluate verisimilitude between theory and action; and statistical analysis to establish the generality of the hypothesized relations among variables. Often such methodologically diverse and progressive research will best be accomplished by encouraging collaboration rather than by perpetuating the current norm of penalizing co-authorship especially among junior scholars. I offer concrete examples of advances in knowledge achieved through the employment of mathematical reasoning and statistical analysis as many have cast doubts about the substantive contributions of these particular approaches. My perspective is, of course, personal and may not be shared by many others. I set out my thoughts, therefore, with the hope that they will stimulate constructive debate and dialogue and that they will serve to integrate diverse approaches to international affairs.     

Leader Survival,Revolutions, and the Nature of Government Finance

Leaders face multiple threats to their political survival. In addition to surviving the threats to tenure from within the existing political systems, which is modeled using Bueno de Mesquita and colleagues' (2003) selectorate theory, leaders risk being deposed through revolutions and coups. To ameliorate the threat of revolution, leaders can either increase public goods provisions to buy off potential revolutionaries or contract the provision of those public goods, such as freedom of assembly, transparency, and free press, which enable revolutionaries to coordinate. Which response a leader chooses depends upon existing institutions and the structure of government finances. These factors also affect the likelihood and direction of institutional change. Tests of leader survival indicate that revolutionary threats increase the likelihood of deposition for nondemocratic leaders. Leaders with access to resources such as foreign aid or natural resource rents are best equipped to survive these threats and avoid the occurrence of these threats in the first place.     

Learning about Voter Rationality

An important empirical literature evaluates whether voters are rational by examining how electoral outcomes respond to events outside the control of politicians, such as natural disasters or economic shocks. The argument is that rational voters should not base electoral decisions on such events, so evidence that these events affect electoral outcomes is evidence of voter irrationality. We show that such events can affect electoral outcomes, even if voters are rational and have instrumental preferences. The reason is that these events change voters' opportunities to learn new information about incumbents. Thus, identifying voter (ir)rationality requires more than just identifying the impact of exogenous shocks on electoral fortunes. Our analysis highlights systematic ways in which electoral fortunes are expected to change in response to events outside incumbents' control. Such results can inform empirical work attempting to identify voter (ir)rationality.