安倍治下的日本对华政策:从战略制衡到战术避险

日本的对华外交深受国际体系和中美日三角关系的影响。由于中美两个大国在全球层面的战略竞争加剧,以2017年为分水岭,第二次安倍内阁领导下的日本的整体对华外交政策经历了从"战略制衡"向"战术避险"方向的转变。在2017年以前,日本为了联美对华实施"战略制衡",在外交方面,以"印太战略"孤立中国;在安全方面,加强岛屿防卫能力和强化日美同盟;在经济方面,大力支持"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定"和对"一带一路"倡议持冷淡态度。在2017年以后,在中美关系的不确定性增大的情况下,安倍领导下的日本对华实施"战术避险"。在外交方面,加强印太战略的开放性、领导人互访和对华自制;在安全方面,继续强化国防上的内部制衡;在经济方面,有条件地认同"一带一路"倡议并对华展开第三方市场合作。展望未来,令和时代的日本将是一个拥有部分战略自主的中等强国,在日美同盟框架下维持与中国有距离的交往,力图在瞬息万变的国际政治角力中实现日本国家利益的最大化。     

The Politics of Administrative Reforms in Asia: Paradigms and Legacies, Paths and Diversities

Many Asian governments have embarked on administrative reforms of one kind or another, engaging in rhetoric that resonates with the global paradigms of "new public management" and "good governance." This article seeks to understand Asian administrative reforms against the background of international influence, policy diffusion, domestic politics, institutional dynamics, and administrative traditions and legacies. It is impossible to capture the whole range of national reform types within any neat and tidy Asian paradigm, but some common strands of national reform paths in the region can still be traced. Different problems and failures are found to be addressed by Asian reforms, reflecting diverse motives and resulting in varied outcomes. The "old" public administration regime has largely coexisted with the "new" public management approaches and tools.     

东亚安全结构中的日本及其战略选择

随着冷战的结束和中国的和平崛起,日本在东亚地区的战略选择正处于至关重要的十字路口。进入21世纪以来,日本国内精英层对东亚安全中日本的定位基本上可分为三个派别:"现实主义派""东亚共同体派"和"脱离对美从属派"。日本国内精英界有关东亚战略选择的讨论也呈多元化的趋势。在官方层面,自2012年上台的安倍政权的战略选择徘徊于"对美从属"和"自主独立"之间。值得注意的是,日本国家战略的具体落实往往受到其国内政治、美国的态度和其自身文化思维——身份认同和非理性因素的制约未来日本的战略走向,将取决于美国在东亚地区的实力消长、日本国内政治的变化以及日本自身对其身份认同的调整。     

Social Factors in Adolescent Deviant Behaviour in Hong Kong: An Integrated Theoretical Approach

This study examines various social correlates of adolescent deviant behaviour in Hong Kong. An integrated theoretical model is constructed which incorporates variables derived from major theories of juvenile delinquency: namely, differential association theory, control theory, strain theory, and labelling theory. Data were collected through a self-report questionnaire administered to a sample of 1,139 students from ten randomly selected secondary schools during early 1986. Path analysis is performed so that the direct, indirect, and total effects of each of the variables can be estimated and compared with those of other variables. Findings suggest that differential association theory can make the greatest contributions in explaining adolescent deviant behaviour in Hong Kong, followed by control theory and labelling theory. Strain theory did not receive any support from the data. Theoretical implications of the results are discussed.