Using Data Combination of Fundamental Variable-Based Forecasts and Poll-Based Forecasts to Predict the 2013 German Election

In this paper I present an election forecasting approach to predict the vote share of the governing coalition in German national elections. The model is composed of two independent prediction components: the first is based on poll data, the second on fundamental variables. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages when used in isolation. The basic idea is to use both and find a better informed overall forecast. The predictions are combined using a shrinkage estimator, where the predictions are weighted by their respective prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of the poll prediction is modelled time-dependent. The result is a dynamic model allowing for predictions longer before the elections highly relying on fundamental variables. With the elections coming closer predictions rely more and more on the polling data.     

Effects of Ethnic Classification on Substantive Findings in Adolescent Mental Health Outcomes

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Although most adolescents are healthy, epidemiological studies show that a significant number experience mental health challenges, and that Indigenous and ethnic...     

Community rehabilitation workers as catalysts for disability: inclusive youth development through service learning

This paper explores access to health and education for disabled youth in sites with and without community rehabilitation workers (CRWs). A cross-sectional survey using a structured questionnaire was undertaken in nine sites in South Africa, and a snowball sample of 523 disabled youths of both sexes, aged between 18 and 35 years, was selected. The survey found that a significantly larger proportion of disabled youth living in sites with CRWs were seen by health care workers at home, and that there was a large difference in educational access between sites with and without CRWs. CRWs are well positioned to promote equal citizenship for disabled youth through service learning with occupational therapy final year students to improve access to health and education, so that barriers to their participation in economic development are removed.     

Investigating the implicit theories of rape‐prone men using an interpretative bias task

Purpose. Ward (2000) has hypothesized that sexual offenders hold offence supportive implicit theories (ITs) or schemata that function to facilitate or maintain offending behaviour. The present research aimed to determine whether rape‐prone men hold the same offence supportive ITs as those that have been identified in rapists. Method. This study adopted both an explicit measure of ITs and also an implicit measure of ITs (an interpretative bias task). In the implicit task, participants viewed ambiguous stimuli (one‐sentence statements) that may be interpreted in either a rape‐supportive manner, or a non‐rape‐supportive manner. Participant's interpretation of the stimuli was assessed via a memory recognition task. We predicted that men higher on proclivity to rape – who presumably hold strong mental representations of rape‐supportive themes – would be more likely to interpret stimuli in a rape‐supportive manner relative to non‐rape‐supportive stimuli compared to men lower on rape proclivity. Results. Using multiple regression to determine the relative contributions of both explicit and implicit measures for predicting rape proclivity, we found that only the explicit, self‐report questionnaire and one of the ITs, ‘women are sex objects’ (as measured by the interpretative bias task), was significantly related to a person's rape proclivity score. Conclusions. This result indicates that rape‐prone men may not share the same beliefs as convicted rapists, which could be a key difference between men at risk of offending, and those who have been convicted of a sexual offence.     

Political Ambition in 14 Presidential Democracies

This article captures the nature of legislators' ambitions and explores to what extent their career paths within a context of party competition lead to progressive versus static ambition. The findings show that their previous career path and retrospective loyalty towards the party influences which offices they seek. Progressively ambitious legislators also seek offices in less competitive environments, but this finding holds for the regional executive branch or the presidency. An additional robust finding shows that ideologically conservative legislators tend to be statically ambitious. This is a first step towards mapping out ambitions in Latin America by drawing on cross‐national data.     

Assessing the Relationship Between a Peer-Mentoring Program and Case Outcomes in Dependency Court

Building successful family-centered programs to support families whose children have been removed can be especially challenging to child welfare agencies. Peer-mentoring programs match families new to the dependency system with a mentor who has successfully reunified with their children. The current study examines the relationship between a peer-mentoring program, Parent for Parent (P4P), engagement levels of parents, and case outcomes for these families. Findings revealed that participants in the peer-mentoring program experienced increased engagement levels and improved outcomes for their cases. Specifically, mothers and fathers who participated in P4P increased their compliance with case plans and visitation, as well as increased presence at court hearings. Reunification rates increased for all families who participated in the peer-mentoring program, compared to those who did not. Few associations were found between racial and ethnic groups and program participation. The implications of these findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

PREVENTING JUDICIALLY MANDATED ORPHANS

The courts intrude into the sancity of family relationships too often, especially with respect to impoverished families. Many circumtances found in such families, including economic factors, employment, and drug and alcohol abuse, are prevalent in poor communities. Instead of stripping children from their parents, the courts should aid families by targeting common problems and helping to preserve the parent-child relationship. This article focuses on the conflicting interests comprising the child protective system, some federal and state child welfare legislation, the idea of increasing the standard of proof in termination Not only is that proceedings, and the constitutionality of relecant legislation and its implementation. Not only is that legislation unconstitutional, but it is unfair to impovershed families, and not completely ineffective at reaching its goal.     

Initial Findings from a Feasibility Trial Examining the SafeCare Dad to Kids Program with Marginalized Fathers

Few studies have explored the direct impact of behavioral parent training programs on child maltreatment behaviors among marginalized, at-risk fathers. This feasibility study examined SafeCare® Dad to Kids (Dad2K), an augmented version of the evidence-based child maltreatment prevention program SafeCare, to determine the acceptability and initial efficacy of the program for improving father parenting skills and reducing maltreatment risk. Ninety-nine fathers were enrolled in the study and randomized to the SafeCare Dad2K Intervention (n?=?51) or comparison (n?=?48). Intervention fathers participated in 6 home visiting sessions and comparison fathers received parenting materials via mail. All fathers participating in the study completed a baseline and 8-week assessment (post-intervention) of maltreatment behaviors. In addition, intervention fathers completed feasibility and parenting skill measures. A significant main effect emerged indicating decreases for both groups in psychologically aggressive behaviors. No significant group by time findings emerged for child maltreatment behaviors. Father intervention completers endorsed high satisfaction ratings for the program and demonstrated significant improvements in targeted father-child interaction skills. Based on the high rates of acceptability and initial improvement in positive parenting skills, findings demonstrate the feasibility for involving at-risk fathers in behavioral parent training programs targeting child maltreatment prevention.